Gardner Webb, North Florida, Ralph Michaels discussed on Sports Gambling Radio - By BangTheBook
Side of things and bring on professional eighty. Get but Ralph Michaels from wagertalk DOT com today man. Doing Great Adamos great to see out here in Vegas. You know. It's nice to see the hype that your baseball guides getting. And the respect you get from the media people out here it. It really is a A nod to the hard work and the dedication you put into it. I definitely appreciate that great to see you last week as well and obviously this isn't kyle hundred. Kyle Hunter out sick here on today's show. But we bring Ralph back great to get him back on the show. It's been a little while here. We're GONNA talk about some of the conference tournaments that start here this week. Some of the conference tournament betting strategies things of that sort rough. I guess we'll start with that because the postseason begins on Tuesday night Atlantic Sun Big South Horizon League and the Patriot League. What's different about betting? These conferences tournament games as opposed to betting regular season games. While I think you're gonNA find that I like betting big dogs especially early those teams that have had losing streaks going into the conference tournaments because number one. It's a restart of the season for them number two. You have to remember that. These teams are playing back to back to back days off very often. And if you get that big lead. Are you resting pooling your starters? Are you playing your bench? Are you going deeper and deeper your bench to get some more depth moving forward so the mindset is quite a bit different handicapping with the and for those for those underdogs? They continue to give one hundred percent effort to the final buzzer. So again I mean this is a one shot deal for a lot of these teams here especially these early conference tournaments the on big south Patriot Horizon Ohio Valley Northeast. The West Coast is not going to be a one bid league this year neither or the Missouri Valley will be a one bid league as well so yeah one shot here in a lot of these early conference tournaments. So Do you feel. Like you can still handicapped motivation. Even though there's only one bid available I don't think you're handicapping completely different when you have conference tournaments and when you have the NCAA tournament. I think you're not handicapping motivation. That's quite a bit different in the where I think. Motivation in the early Games is one of the most important factors handicapping handicapping some of those smaller conferences for teams. That are are disappointed in the tournament. They're in all right. So let's look at some of these conferences tournament specifically and start with the Atlantic Sun Tournament. And unfortunately here the sports books pretty slow to react here on Monday morning. We don't have odds for most of these you'll book I've got odds for is the circuit for the Horizon League tournament. Don't have anything other than that. So we'll try to do the best. We can't here with some strategy and some of the things that we're looking at here but in the ace son. Liberty is your top seed. You're overwhelming tournament favourite. Once we get numbers posted everywhere even though liberty in north Florida tied with identical thirteen and three records and North Florida. In fact actually beat. Liberty wants out of their two meetings but this looks like it's liberties tournament to lose and also to this a different handicapping strategy with these tournaments because all of these games are at campus sites. You have to factor homecourt advantage into the equation and I think homecourt advantage for the tournaments is even bigger than in the regular season. Now even though you're having to give some of your seats up and and some of the conferences you know you have to give seats to each of the schools. I think there's the familiarity. The added Edge. The the crowd be at not as large as a regular crowd. But you know when when you're playing these back to backs you have to remember college. Kids are accustomed to this. They're they're going on the road and they're leaving that night or they're leaving first thing in the morning now. These kids are staying in a different setting. It's it's the tournament typesetting that some of them played in November. But it's not a tournament typesetting because you're prepping for those next next team. So I actually give the coaches a little bit of a higher edge than I do when I have my coaching ratings and I give the home-court edge for those teams having a little higher as well that makes it a whole lot of sense here and again. I mean liberty last year one this conference tournament and in fact if you remember. They went on the road to lipscomb and one this conference sermon. That was a very very good lipscomb team. Last year on the two thousand eighteen team was also very good this year. Lipscomb draws the three seed because they had had a higher net rating than Stetson. That's in one of the other teams. That beat liberty here over the course of the season and Lipscomb just did it in the regular season finale but Ralph looked up and down this conference here. Is there any way you could look at anybody other than liberty to win this thing? Yeah again I am not. I am not giving it to liberty because I do like this North Florida squad you know you. Have you have one of the most efficient offenses in the country? Their problem is defense but a lot of times you can. You can live by the defense. I liked the way they finished going down the stretch. Winning eight of their last nine. You look at the LIPSCOMB game. They played on the road. They lost eighty five to seventy three and it was the game that they shot very poorly one of their were shooting games. So in the second meeting in the second beating when they've played liberty They they beat liberty at home. Seventy one seventy then they lose by five. I give North Florida shot. And a Lotta Times Adam. I think it's actually good to talk about. Play these Games through in your head before you see the odds because even handicapping for thirty five years. There's Times you look at the odds. And that's ways your opinions on these games who you really think might be able to win so You know I do like going through these it just like much like I do bowl games. I like going through all the bowl games. Making my lines before they come out because then you don't have that misconception or or again think this team has this big favourite. Do I really think this dog has a live shot? And there are some other teams. That will talk about here a little bit with some of these smaller conference tournaments that fall into this same boat but it seemed like North Florida as you mentioned very good offensively not good defensively at all. You're going to have a lot of teams like trying to figure out of my head. But you're GONNA have a lot of teams here that you know rate very well defensively but not as well offensively. Na Conference Tournament Tournament format like this. Are you kind of leaning towards the offense over the defense or vice versa? I usually lean defense. But if I'm GONNA take an north Florida's not a flyer by any means they're going to be the second favorite but I like taking teams. That are three point heavy and they shut thirty eight percent from three point a league best and you know. I'm going to go back. And people if people remember back in December or the end of November when Michigan got hot and Beacon Zag and went through their run. What happened they got on fire from three and North Florida? I liked those teams tournament. That can shoot a three well can win on the road and has the ability to get hot from three point. Land all right so we take a look at another conference tournament here. This is another very very small conference the Big South Conference tournament this one also starts on Tuesday night. The bottom six seeds play. They all play on campus sites. You've got high point at USC upstate Campbell at UNC Ashville Presbyterian at Charleston southern Thursday. The set of the quarter-finals begin. Those are all held at Radford's campus. Because they are the number one seed. Same thing with the semifinals in the championship. Game on Sunday March eighth played at the home site of the highest seed which if Radford wines upholding up. That's where the game would be played if not it could very well be in. Rock Hill South Carolina at winthrop. Something like that but Radford and winthrop tied with fifteen and three records way to go to the second tiebreaker for Radford to be the number one seed winthrop is the number to here and those are the two best teams in this conference but Gardner Webb kind of lurking Campbell. Sort of looking after that then. A bunch of bottom fifty caliber teams year in the big south so as sort of handicap through this tournament. Ralph your who do you kind of have your eye on this team to win this thing. Well having the Home Ed j as I just said I I give the edge so I expect Radford to win this but you know my dark horse would be Gardner Webb. You know you lost. Who was the preseason player of the year for Peres for Multiple Games if he can come back and and can get healthy and and start playing on his status. I haven't I haven't been able to get an update on them but You know they're they're certainly a team that. I look at and and was leaning forward. You know the other the other team down the stretch you know Longwood Longwood finished well. They're they're the best defensive team and as I said there's certain times I like offense with the three but if Longwood could get any type of shooting you know that that is a team that finished seven and three down the stretch the last ten games and you know one thing I I wanna point out at him you and I talk about bar tour vic dot com often and when I get into these tournaments couple things I look at is I go in and if you go into bar tour you can put a start date on the top so I go back and I look at what. These teams did their last ten games. I go back to the end of January. Punch Ma'am you see their offensive and defensive efficiencies and then I also got a stat Fox. Because they're the easiest to pull down and pull down all the road stats so you look at the teams did on the road offensively and defensively point per game and rebounds and those are two things. I think are very vital. When you're breaking these conferences information. Wise to have it at at your fingertips. Yeah I agree I mean part is great especially because you kind of get those trend lines with some of the visuals that he has there. And you look at Gardner Webb here. They've won six. In the last seven they beat winthrop at home. They beat Radford on the road in a game that Radford. You'll I mean look. This was a team going for the number one seed there on Saturday and maybe they already had it locked up. I'd have to go back and double check that. But so Gardner. Webb beat those two teams the top two seeds here over the last month or so went to triple overtime in a four point loss at winthrop and that was three days after losing it home by three to Radford. So Gardner Webb Split. The meetings with the top two seeds and the losses were nothing to scoff at either and this of course a Garner team that won this conference tournament last year with the same head coach in Tim Craft and last year. There were a team in the regular season and conference play or ten in Eight I believe actually this year. There were eleven and seven. So Gardner Webb not a bad bet. Here obviously WanNa see what this price looks like when the odds come out but that may be one that you want to keep an eye on their in the big south even though a lot of people will say it will likely come down to read.