Otani, Ohtani, Julio Rodriguez discussed on Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast

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Have collapsed the way that they have might make you less inclined to vote for him because it's been such an unconvincing play outperformance, but it's not his fault. It's the entire team around him, which of course you can say for ohtani as well, but the rest of the Yankees are good enough that judge gets them there and without judge with any mortal man as their center filter, they would probably be out of first place right now who are quite likely. Yeah, I've been thinking more and more about this and you tell me if I am overreacting to the magnitude of the money involved, whereas this incentive always exists. I think that if we're going to have the awards incentive stuff, we see in Julio Rodriguez's contract, we need to really do away with the notion that this award is at all about that player within the context of a team that is or isn't good. Yeah. Right? It's not as if there aren't already bonuses that are tied to award vote stuff. Like that already exists. We don't love that either, but that already exists. But the amount of influence that the award vote stuff can have on individual contracts. Now, if this is going to become more than norm, I really think that we need to be like, no, no, you can't care that he's on the Yankees. You're not allowed to consider that. Like maybe this is just, maybe I'm just writing an email out loud to lyrics don't. But it seems like we want to stay away from that stuff because somebody's going to need to get some money. Right, and then I guess if you were to vote that way, then you would be giving a greater likelihood of getting that incentive exercised for players who were on good teams that are spending a lot, which I guess you could say competitive balance wise that's not as bad because at least you're making teams that are maybe spending more in general spend more on those players, but it's also just not really fair to the players that it would depend on whether ownership or their front office has put talent to rent them. They get to get that money or not. So I do think that people say a lot that war can't capture a ton of value and I think they're a couple things you could mean by that. One is that you could literally mean that it could be calculated a little bit differently that he should be getting a little more credit for this or that that he could be getting more credit for his fielding as a pitcher or less of a DH penalty when he's pitching or whatever it is. That's small stuff though. That's just moving at the margins, which I guess could make a difference in this race since it's pretty close. And MVP voters do pay attention to words these days, but it's not going to make a major difference. And then something like, well, he's almost two players in a sense, but he's in one roster spot and how do you quantify that? I don't think that's a huge difference, especially if he's on a team like the angels. Well, yeah, I guess they don't anymore, but they did for most of the season. And last season. And beyond that, like, look what they've done with half their roster spots. You know, the fact that Otani is saving them one, okay, that's nice, but it just means that maybe they have one less replacement level player at the back end of that roster, I guess that's good, but I don't think that's a huge amount that would necessarily move the needle, but I think you could say that word does not capture the majesty of Otani or the difficulty of doing what he does just because there's only one person on the planet who can do what he's doing, which technically I guess you could also say about Aaron judge, right? Because no one is hitting this many home runs in meanwhile, playing senator field and being a good base runner and all of the rest of the things that he does. But he's doing something that is just in a different category in that there are no other full-time two way players, let alone ones who are among the best at both things that they do. So I think you could say, well, we're ultimately it might sum up his value fairly well, but doesn't sum up just how impressive it is that he is able to deliver his value in the form that he does, which doesn't necessarily make his team or the angels that much better, like ultimately it just boils down to he is this many played appearances in this many batter's face and here's how he performs in that playing time. So how he got to that point or the fact that he is sort of two different players in one might not actually make them better by the amount that it makes us odd by what he does, right? So there's like an aspect of the story of Otani and just like how impressive it is that he's able to do what he does that could not really be captured by any stat and that's okay, I don't know that that needs to even be a part of MVP discussions, but it's a part of just how memorable what he's doing is or how unprecedented or singular it is. So in a way, like whether he wins a piece of hardware or not, I don't want to make this sound like rap Manfred dismissing the World Series trophy as a piece of metal. I'm just saying whether he wins another MPP award or not. It's totally incredible that he's done this and everyone knows that no one else would be able to do what he's doing in the form that he does it. Like it's more conceivable I guess to imagine Shohei Ohtani playing center field and hitting 60 homers than it is to imagine judge hitting 35 homers and also being one of the best pitchers in baseball. That doesn't mean that judge shouldn't win the award. It just means, well, that's something that we can say about Tokyo. That's why he's so special, I guess, in a different way than judges special. They're both special in their own ways. That's sort of how I started this whole segment. Right. I think that awards voting regardless of whether you're dealing with a case as sort of difficult to wrangle or at least find comps for as Otani or not. You know, the statistical piece of it should be a big piece of it, right? You're trying to assess sort of who is the best who is superlative in a way that their peers are, but that should never be the end. Of your consideration like that is a starting point. And it can be a big piece of your ultimate vote, but to simply look at it in that way, I think your rate is to miss the other pieces of it that matter even if they're hard to quantify. Like you, I tend to be, I think that you can say, I think that the DH penalty is too punitive or I think that he should kind of get a bonus for being able to do both things at an extremely high level. Now, he gets a bonus in a way, right? Because he has a pitching war and he has a bad morning at the back. There he is. That's his value. And you don't get to do that with Aaron just 'cause he doesn't do the other thing, right? So in that sense, he's getting kind of a bonus, it might just be an honest accounting of his skill. But I think that there was this idea early with of tani that he's saving. He's saving a roster spot. He's getting like this production out of one spot instead of having to spend two.

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