Meetings with ministerial colleagues and others in addition to my duties in this house I shall have further such meetings later today My constituent Carol ridgeway faces 8 weeks of stress and worry as she waits for an urgent appointment at the local breast clinic in North Wales Yet despite the pandemic 85% of patients in England wait only two weeks for their urgent suspected cancer The prime minister is going to face a series of questions now in parliament Tom and this is going to get pretty heated over what happened in spring of last year And for a lot of people reducing to this as just a drink in the garden with colleagues For a lot of people around that period Tom who lost loved ones couldn't attend funerals Couldn't meet the birth of their grandchildren Their babies This has been a massive massive issue in this country and will continue to be so in the coming weeks and months John is there an American equivalent I just don't see it at the white can't imagine President Biden going through this exercise but do you see an American equivalent No right now No Tom Not right now no The prime minister is going to face some questions for the next 30 minutes or so and tell him if there's any headlines we'll bring them to you The main event stateside 8 30 Eastern Time CPI in America from the pandemic to the inflation pressure we've seen off the back of it Lisa 7% is the estimate Yeah and how much is it actually changed the narrative which already is for a stickier pace of inflation How much is it going to be the 7 hand all the sort of shock factor of seeing inflation at that high of a rate versus the underlying components I keep going back to this How much do we need to see a transmission from the goods inflation to the services inflation in order to give rise to the stickier feel that we keep hearing The fed conversation that makes it a big way as well Let's get to the equity market at 5 40 S&P up a little more than a tenth of 1% on the NASDAQ 132 of two tenths of 1% yields on ten four 28 yield tire by almost a basis point Joining us now Sebastian pays CIO and head of global multi asset at hero price Sebastian let's start with that inflation print a little bit later this morning What are you looking for sir We have a range of view at our firm and pretty much everywhere about inflation 7% looks reasonable That's the consensus When we discuss in our asset allocation committee where are we expect to CPI to print year over year at the end of this year Our base case is 3% but we think risks are skewed to the upside And for that you really have to watch the supply chain factors And they're pretty confusing Jonathan right The Baltic dry index is actually down 60% from its peak the cost of shipping stuff But then you have a hundred ships in the ports of Los Angeles You have only Kron creating more and more issues Jonathan you mentioned people not showing up for work at the airport A third of the workforce for united mentioned this earlier So the supply chain remains a puzzle the New York fed is put out an index of supply chain pressures and their narrative is that it speaking but when you look at the data I don't see it I have it on the Bloomberg It just keeps going up So we think the risks are skewed to the upside and we've positioned our portfolios to be short duration Sebastian page the heritage of tyrol price is absolutely unique You guys invented growth you invented sector analysis on the buy side I go back to roger mcnamee and what you guys did in technology T wrote price right now in honor of roger mcnamee on American technology and American growth stocks Am I long At the moment in our asset allocation portfolios we have tilted towards value and we like being long cyclicality because it's a relative valuation call and also a macro call based on the economy Now Tom I got to be really really clear We still believe in the role of technology We're still diversified between growth and value But as asset allocators we think the cyclicality is so underpriced all time extremes in terms of relative valuations It's already sort of playing out so far this year And you have rising rates which is good for financials or analysts on the platform or upgrading financials So that's our position tactically Sebastian how much is that call for value Hinge on this idea that the fed will not be forced to move too quickly will not necessarily become or move to a restrictive monetary policy and that the data will cooperate and allow them to do so You know it's interesting because over the last few weeks Visa we've priced in quite a bit of additional fed hawkishness right Now we're talking about four rate hikes If I go on wi RP on my Bloomberg I see three and a half rate hikes for 2022 Powell yesterday confirmed or talked about balance sheet runoff and the markets reacted okay to that So the question is is the fed going to be hawkish or not It's more can the feds still surprise on the hawkish side relative to what's priced in at the moment Our views the direction of travel for rates is higher this year and that's why we're short duration But what we really are looking at right now are the long-term dots There are two and a half percent They've been at two and a half percent since 2019 Will the long term dots change And that could be the kind of tailor risk hawkish surprise It's very hard to bring those up because we've piled on so much debt over time We had 10 trillion treasuries outstanding around the global financial crisis We have 30 trillion treasuries outstanding now How have we done that We've done that by lowering rates such that death service If you plotted on the same chart it's almost a flat line So you get trapped every time you add debt and we've added a lot in terms of government debt You handcuff yourself in terms of where the rates can end up So that is where the surprises could come but nonetheless our positioning right now is towards longer rates High rates Sebastian page of T Rowe price Really summarizing the big debate right now in the bond market and on the dot plot Sebastian thank you sir Thank you very much What a bill Dudley called it earlier this week Lisa the long dot the 2024 dart to be precise You think he called it fantasyland Yeah fantastic That basically they thought that it was going to stay so low However on the other side you have Stephen major and going back to that note this morning where he talked about perhaps going along the short end and seeing some value there And seeing a further sell off at the long end that's a tactical trade He still has the same view that we just heard from Sebastian page that long-term rates can not go up that high simply because of the amount of debt and how difficult it is to get to that higher terminal rate no longer term basis This is the.