3 scenarios for coronavirus pandemic future

Automatic TRANSCRIPT

With us as always ABC's chief medical correspondent. Dr Jen Ashton Jen. Good to lay is physically name in your company so with so many states in various stages of reopening. What do we know well? First of all we have to take a little bit step back and look at the history here when the task force recommended their guidelines for reopening. These are what we're used. As the general gating criteria against suggestions that states or or city sea a downward trajectory of documented cases within a day period or a downward trajectory of positive as a percentage of total tests. We don't usually hear that break down. The percentage of total test being done over a two week period. And I think it's really important to remember here just because we were in lockdown for one to two months the virus did not disappear nor will it. So it's a matter of learning how to safely live with it and you've been researching the various scenarios. What could have? And what are the possibilities? Well according to some top infectious disease specialists and epidemiologists who are looking at various models. There are three basic scenarios that they're looking at as possibilities over the next couple of months and years one is something called a small recurring outbreaks. Scenario where you see kind of like little peaks of this virus recur the other one which is obviously the most dreaded is a second monster wave or a second wave which we don't know whether that would be in the fall or winter or the third adjust persistent crisis now again all of these scenarios are just theoretical at this point but again we have to prepare in theory for any of them. There are so many things that I would classify as we still don't know what we don't know what would you say specifically are the unknowns when it comes to reopen well. I think that is so important as we face. This crisis Lindsay is identifying and remembering what we don't know because there's still a lot to learn. I think when you look at this. One has a crystal ball hair so we don't know what the season effect will be. We don't know what the summer will do to this virus or the rates of spread. We don't know how testing will inform response whether that's a combination of rapid diagnostic test for acute disease or antibody testing. And we don't know how contact tracing will be able to play a role in controlling this virus so a lot still. We need to learn a lot. We don't know

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