Rams, Cardinals, Sean Mcvay discussed on Behind the Bets

Behind the Bets


Rams, of course, these two teams have met earlier in the season in Arizona went to LA and Nash a 37 20 victory. That's why they have a stranglehold on the NFC west at the moment, but a rams win would make this a much more tight race down the stretch. As we sit here on Monday morning, Cardinals at home, a two and a half point favorite, a total of 51. How are you looking at either the side or total in this game, which Vegas expects to be tight? And there to be, of course, with these two offenses involved some point to put up on the board. Yeah, so our biggest thinks this is going to be a tight game. I feel like the public has been hammering the Cardinals nonstop. I saw it at over 80% in terms of people backing them on the spread. So it's a little troublesome that the line isn't really moving. The cardinals are tend to straight up at 9 three against spread this season, but they are four in ten against the spread in their last 14 games as a home favorite. So keep that in mind for sure. I'm going to stay away from the spread completely. I just honestly don't really like anything about it. And as we know yesterday, favorites were crushing it, the ovaries were also crushing crushing it. And then in terms of the total for this game, the under is going 5 two in one of the rams last 8 games. So I just, I don't really have a lean for either of those two. So I really think you should dabble into the player props for this one. Yeah, I'm with you. I think this is a super tight line. I think it's hard to prognosticate how these two teams will interact now on the football field versus how they interacted 6 7 8 weeks ago whenever that was because there's been so much change in transformation, especially on the ram side. They've lost Robert Woods, lynchpin, and captain for their offense. They've added Odell Beckham junior on offense. They've added von Miller on defense. They've lost their run stuffer and Sebastian Joseph day for this particular game will be without Daryl Henderson and rob havenstein. They're starting to write tackling. They're starting running back to the beginning of the season. I actually think that might benefit the rams because sodium Michelle at this point, I don't know if you remember when CJ Anderson kind of came on late in the season for the rams in 2018 when Todd Gurley was banged up and he was he made the rams almost a more imposing run game, even though Gurley was way more explosive Anderson was just like ripping off four or 5 6 yards at a pop because he was that short stout bowling ball type running back. And I wonder if and that what that encouraged Sean mcvay to do was to get away from 11 personnel and run more 12 personnel add more weight tight ends and offensive lineman to the field. And that made the rams harder to defend for other teams because they turned into a power running football team rather than the flash and dashboard cup Robert Woods, Matt Stafford or Jared Goff lightened up. So this game is really, really hard, even for me as a rams fan who watches every single snap of how Sean mcvay is going to play given the personnel that he has here. So like you, here's what I would do. If you think the cardinals are going to win, just lay the two and a half. If you think the rams are gonna win this game, just take them on the money line. Just stay away from the spread and take them on the money. Because this to me is a true toss up game. I personally think the Cardinals win. I just think the rams are still in the midst of a metamorphosis that they're not quite done with. Maybe if this game was played two or three weeks from now, I'd have more conviction in my team and perhaps it's emotional hedge, but I just think the Cardinals right this second are better equipped to impose their will on the rams than vice versa. As far as the total, I mean, to me, this is you either bet the over or you pass. When the rams and the Cardinals get together, you have two of the top 7 teams in terms of pace. You have a rams team that when they're on the football field, their games average the 5th most combined snaps in the 6th most combined points per game of any team in the NFL. And my stance is kind of this. I'd be so angry with myself if I, you know, tried to outsmart the data and the numbers and the trends and bet the under and the game went over. If I bet the only thing, I feel like with the I feel the same way as you because yesterday I took three under is not one of them hit and you know I hate photos and you know what I mean? And I never do that and the first week that I do, but I will say Arizona and its opponents combine to put up 51 or more points in just three games for Los Angeles was four. And I feel like you made a great point about personnel and the one other thing I wanted to mention is the rams did not win one game in November. And I think that we are putting a lot of hype and emphasis around them to win the Super Bowl because they had all these pieces and maybe in this game they're gonna be able to use all the pieces in the proper way to finally have a dominant win. Yeah. You're losing the good teams, like Green Bay. 100%, you know what I'm talking about. And I think you make a good point about me talking about that metamorphosis. Each week that comes and goes is more practice time for Odell without Robert Williams for von Miller to learn Sean mcvay's system on offensive for von where he morrises on defense. So again, I do think this is a very, very hard game to predict on side until I think the market is very, very tight, like you. I would probably just yield to the prop market, which I think is easier to take advantage of. You said you had some plays in the market. Did you light what sticks out that maybe you have more conviction than cider total? Yeah, one thing I just want to mention before I get into the ones that I do like in terms of some of the props, the rushing props are actually down aside from Kyler Murray and I'm wondering if that's because Chase Edmonds the last time these two met when the rams won or she's doing the cardinals one, 37 to 20..

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