"Support for this podcast and the following message. Come from the fresh market, offering prepared sides desserts in ready to heat meals for your thanksgiving celebration, plus fresh Turkey spiral sliced Honey ham and more details in recipes available at the fresh market dot com. This weekend marks a major step in Britain's more than two year journey to leave the European Union. The us remaining twenty-seven nations will vote on a divorce agreement with the United Kingdom and for more. We turn to NPR's Frank Langfitt in London. Hi, Frank may Mary how is this vote likely to go in Brussels any chance of defeat. I think people would be really surprised if there were defeat, you know, there there are complaints about at Spain is threatening to vote against it. Because they have a dispute with the United Kingdom over Gibraltar in Britain is ruled Gibraltar for several centuries. But the sense is the European Union is generally getting most of what it wants out of this and it's expected to pass their on Sunday. Okay. But then it has to get through the British parliament, and it phase a much steeper climb there. Tell us about how it's looking. It's totally different over here in the British parliament. And the numbers are bad. All right now, as far as anybody can tell May's conservative party doesn't even have a parliamentary majority here. So they don't have enough votes of their own to do it. Speaking of naming Stephen Bush, he writes for the new statesman. It's a left leaning political magazine here, and he's a top political journalists in in this is what he said she is seventy two votes down before you kind of factor in the fight and the opposition parties will vote against. So she is well adrift and on calls for quite a big defeat as it stands so objections from the left and the right from her own part in how he's had of her party. What happens if affairs? Well, this is really interesting some people in our own party, Brexit tears. They they would love to go back to Brussels and try to get this deal tweaked, but Brussels is not an immune to make changes. They've been negotiating over this for a ton of time. And they're kind of tired of it some people here have been talking about a pretty interesting scenario that will sound familiar to Americans. They're saying in recent US history. There's something that could be relevant EU member in two thousand eight the US global financial crisis. There was this troubled asset relief program at heart which. We all covered. This was going to have the government by all these toxic assets were hundreds of billions of dollars will congress initially voted it down markets crashed. And even though congress didn't like it. They passed it later kind of in a panic. Now, the thought is there could be a market crash here that could push members of parliament to change their mind, but it's not clear because most people don't expect this thing to pass in the first place. Remind us why British leaders of so many different political stripes hate this deal. Well, they hate it. Because it comes down to the Irish border at certain point when the United Kingdom leaves the European Union. It will create the need for a border on the island of Ireland between Northern Ireland which is a part of the UK and the Republic of Ireland that's part of the EU. And basically with the US saying is you can't leave until we solve this problem and Brexit. Here's are saying gosh could take forever to get a new trade deal. We not sure how to solve the problem. Exactly. So we could be stuck in the U for years could Theresa May's political career survive having this voted down in parliament will normally prime minister Ori is. You know here would have to resign. But since the Brexit vote in two thousand sixteen normal rules, definitely do not apply to British politics anymore. Stephen Bush that journalist I was talking to thinks that she actually make just keep coming back to parliament until she gets the answers. She wants this is how he put it. I suspect than want have to happen is you have a defeat. Everyone expects another vote where people kind of expected to be falling when it's not fine. And then perhaps that point you get the necessary panic Theresa May has been in such an odd position for the last two years implementing or trying to implement this policy that she was not a supporter of before she became nine ministers sack. I was she managed to survive through all of this. You know, it's it's remarkable to watch her. She gets a lot of criticism here. But she just doesn't quit. Nobody seems to be able they try to beat her down. It doesn't really work. There've been a number of memes out that depict her as the black Knight in Monty python's clearly grail. This is the night that keeps losing limbs and keeps fighting on saying it's just a scratch, and Stephen Bush, the journalists I was talking to he says this has been her style for a long time. She would affectively just grab. Really exhaust away to victory. Not affectively Theresa May's political approach just keep on, you know, Putin along and Wakefield opponents to themselves out poodling along poodling along, and I should add one of the thing here that the prime minister has going for her. If this all falls, apart, the United Kingdom could leave the European Union with no deal at all. Which most people think would be an economically disastrous, and it would be seen globally as a huge self inflicted wounds. So there is a worst case scenario that she's you know, and she stands between the United Kingdom, and that scenario the other thing is that when you listen to all of her opponents, none of them have a better idea honestly for leaving the U it's a bad situation. But she does have some respects relatively strong position NPR's Frank Langfitt in London. Thank you. Happy to do at Ari. This message comes from NPR sponsor Capital"