Jeff, Neil Brodie, Justin Trudeau discussed on What You Need to Know - a #CDNPolicast from Bluesky Strategy
Welcome to this week's episode of Blue Skies Tragedy Group's Canadian podcast. What you need to know about this week in in Canadian politics? I'm Cam from a consultant here. Blue Sky and joining me today or Neil Brodie fights president lines himself with the Blue Team and Jeff Aft- Turner Senior Consultant Who's closely following the liberal campaign. All right well here. We are the end of the end of this big week. And as of today voting has begun with advanced polls now open and threw out the long weekend. There are a lot of undecided voters out. There we'll start off with this wondering here. We'll Canadians Canadians. Come out this weekend to vote or will people wait the twenty-first to make up their mind. What do you think Well I know the I think the trend over the last couple of years is people going to advance dance polls to avoid the crowds on on election day I think the The question this time around will people want to go out and vote There have been no the change in the numbers in the polls since the beginning of the campaign which kind of reflects the No big winning issue. No big winning in plank For any of the parties It's kind of the Seinfeld election. It's really about nothing even though there have been some some large policy announcements by all the parties. Hardee's I I don't I don't know it's Thanksgiving weekend. If the weather's nice and people are with families they might stay home and the twenty-first but I think it's only I think that's it's only a a result of the weather. I think the bigger question is will people want to own vote this this time. What you Jeff? I don't think the proverbial undecided voter person who sort of ascribing identifies as unidentified. We'll go out this weekend. Because those types of voters tend to play chicken with the polls they go right to the very last minute before making up their mind I've been to lots of doors on the day before Election Day. Where people are still telling you? They're undecided so I don't think that's who's going to go out to advance polls weekend but that's not who is supposed to go to advance. Polls as far as campaign when is concerned Campaigns are working this weekend as many election day. First and foremost it's a way of warming up your machine for the big show on next Monday but secondly it's a way. AM getting the people you know or suspect highly are going to vote for you to the poll to effectively deposit that vote into the bank. So you can focus on the rest of the people on your list for the remainder of of the week. So that's that's what's happening this weekend. I think people are going after As far as campaigns are going after. ID voters to try to get them to go early. There are some voters who just naturally know that they're are gonNA be busy or they're traveling or town or it's not convenient or maybe. This weekend is more convenient than a Monday afternoon. So you'll definitely get those types of voters who may not be coming because as they are particularly strongly politically aligned or other things just convenient for them So I think The truly undecided voter which is who were talking about in this question I think they're sitting down over dinner or family engagement this weekend. And they were having that proverbial Thanksgiving conversation may not make up their mind but it will substantially advance. That and I think by next Monday they'll be ready to go. I think there are two factors really play into this. One is over the last couple of federal election cycles. We've seen more and more people get attuned to the idea of strategic voting and and that idea of trying to stop the lesser to whatever that may look like and therefore I've gotten more used to the idea of going at the last minute letting things play out see what happens at the polls for alternate jumping in because we face stories in two thousand eleven of people are saying oh I voted liberal to stop the MVP and Jack Layton surgeon. I feel terrible. How can I help you? And and I saw the opposite opposite in in in two thousand fifteen and I think you're seeing people are wising up a little bit and thinking okay. I'm GonNa wait a little bit longer to do this. The other thing though. I think it's interesting plaintiffs additive so well advanced polls open. Friday universities had polls open all week. And what's happened with that youth with that university vote at the did they actually get out to the act and AH obviously those votes are already now in the bank. That's the big thing I agree with that. You're saying Jeff at this point in the campaign you WANNA Walk People in as best you can and this an opportunity to do it so the people if they if they are feeling your way and you can get him out to vote now because it wasn't they change your mind will will cast. It doesn't matter anymore but I think it's going to be interesting when it comes to the polls calls we start to see some movement in the last couple of days especially in the personal approval numbers for Mr saying. I think the question is that does that continue play. And I think that's one of the things that keep people who are undecided undecided on the sidelines. This weekend is why does he does play out wanting to see you know it is. There is another option for me. If they wait they wait ten days. I'll have a better idea of where things in stand now. The other big thing this week we had we had. Both the official commissioned debates Monday night on on on their last Thursday night in French and quite the spectacles new formats live audiences. All this lovely stuff built up around so I wanted to get both your overall impression on this. Who who want who lost? Who looked good? Who wish they'd stayed home? Jeff Yeah I think. The format lost I think that was the unanimous. As far as the English language debate was concerned I think that was unanimous amongst no matter what your partisan stripe And that was just a bit of a shame because I think people were looking forward to this as a bit more of a neutral space jason bit more of a different format than before in past campaigns and I think a lot of people were disappointed with the election Debate on in English. The French nice to be made a lot of changes. I don't know whether that was always their plan. or whether the producers went into a bunker for a couple of days to really take the the sort maelstrom around the English debate and turn it into something better in their own production So either either Kudos if they did it. Better from the GECKO or Kudos if they turned it around in a couple of days for what was arguably a much better format I think we actually heard the leaders able to communicate they all. I think the leaders and the party certainly got the message that viewers and Canadian for frustrated by this kind of scrabble talking over each other in in those sorts of things in the first debate because they were all very polite. They're all very very accommodating if you will of other people's Time on the microphone and so I thought the French debate did a better service. So it's the it's the Canadians across the country. Hopefully should've watched. Unfortunately that won't be the case in in in English Canada I think in terms of just a answer question who who sort of broke through. Didn't I think it's it's it's fairly. Well accepted Jagmeet. Did have a pretty shiny day a on the English debate. I think in part that was because First of all he's obviously a fairly positive guy. That's his brand that's his. That's his His way of doing politics and I think that was contrast especially this year coming out with a giant bludgeoned right off the bat. I think set sing up perfectly to be that Middle Guy. Hi who he was to say. Okay well you guys are arguing. You look at me while I say something. That's universally accepted by whoever hears it. It's easy to be the Nice Guy Candidate when you have nothing to lose. Yeah and no disrespect intended but Justin Trudeau was the same way in twenty fifteen. He had nothing to lose. They were the third party. He'd come in and say anything he wanted me. Obviously there's a different dynamic in play when you're a liberal the Liberal Party leader But it's nice when you're in that third third position where you can come in you. You really can't do anything wrong and I was just thinking I mean in terms of Jagmeet in this sort of this moment that seems to be lifting him a little bit in this week and I just find it interesting and maybe this is a partisan comment but I find interesting. That that he's he's he's sailing to become a very important person or A. You know a winner of this campaign by losing half of the seats. It really is this awkward dynamic of Catching Fire while the ship is burnt while the ship is sinking. It just is this dichotomy. That is hard to figure out. And it's accurate. I think he is. He is catching on. He is reaching people he he is you know sort of having that actively to frustrated voters but the stark reality of the of the of the chess pieces on the map is he's GonNa lose half of all of those things where they are today. We've got another week. We'll get into that. Neil your views on it. I will Second Jeff's opinion that One of the big losers. There's was the debate itself Having both debates in Ottawa. With at least the English language debate with five moderators Did a disservice to the National campaigns that people are running that there's only one debate French and English autosomal. There should have been one in Halifax I'm partial because I've got a very good friend in Halifax there should have been wind. You Know Edmund. Ten or or or Vancouver Just to show that this is a big country and there are different Political imperatives across the country. That that that that the regions care about My take away from the two debates is the liberals and the Conservatives fought to a tie Which I think was the best that both could hope for This is the winners. Were the smaller parties. Who who had a hard time Getting their message through up until the debate. So yes Mr Sing Mr Blanchette for awhile. He's he's now burst onto the national scene as the next Great Bloc Quebecois leader a and and Ms May of course you never know as the fifth or Sixth Party in the House of Commons. She never gets much airtime so Getting whatever where. She got twenty minutes in the debate. To talk about. Her issues is is always a good thing My my understanding. I didn't watch the french-language take did of my wife's Twenty Ninth Birthday Just catching up she can. She's catching up to me. I understand I watched the English debates Mr Single All. I understand Mr Sing Kinda ran out of talking points in the French debate. I don't I don't know whether that will hurt him in Quebec But if this is going to be a minority government which it looks like it is to your point Jeff. He may be the most important person in parliament. Y losing a quarter a third a half of a seats. Yeah I have to say. I found interesting using the frontliners debate last night. Some of the most heated exchange was actually between Andrew. Scheer and bloodshed. Like they. Actually were fairly viscerally going after each other More than just on policy points. It was a little bit personal which I find interesting because the you know. The minority speculation is that the only possible partners the Conservatives have their minorities minorities the Bloc Quebecois or piecemeal with the Liberals. But that's unlikely and I don't think that's going to be interesting to come out of this. This this last week of a campaign comes in these playoffs. Playoff the debates is that you're starting to see where the pressure points are coming whereas Mr Singh spent a lot of his time last night in the French debate going after Mr Trudeau even though when he wasn't matched up with them He went after him. You saw you saw sheer going..