BOJ, BOE, European Central Bank discussed on The Breakdown

The Breakdown


Some folks made an argument that the British intervention actually worked. As Joe wiesenthal pointed out, quote 30 year guilt yields just experienced their biggest one day fall in history, right after the biggest jump in history. He also wrote bui probably pretty happy with the initial market reaction to the QT delay and long end purchases. Gil yield solidly lower while the pound is actually up a little higher. The pound in fact was up 1.26% on the day. Another question was whether we'd see something similar in the U.S.. Oil and gas investor Josh young wrote, BOE warns of risk to UK financial stability as it intervenes in gilt market. Or in other words, the UK is back to quantitative easing with inflation at 10% to avoid pension blow ups and other similar issues. Will this happen in the U.S. soon? The Bank of England is now the second Central Bank to panic in the past week. After the bank of Japan's intervention in the currency market as well. Ralph wrote stabilizing bonds markets, first the BOJ, then the BOE, next to the ECB. The markets will keep pushing until it gets what they want. More cowbell, more FX devaluation. Muhammad el irian tweeted a chart of the U.S. two year treasury yield going down and wrote the inherent optimism of U.S. markets as evident as Bank of England's intervention is seen as pointing to a more dovish fed. Alex Krueger wasn't so sure, writing bui doing temporary QE out of the blue could be a short term trend changer. But also, quote, the risk is that QE should lead to higher inflation expectations, which can not become unanchored or its game over. Makes sense for the market to get excited about the possibility of the fed doing the same. They won't do it though, they wouldn't risk. Not even remotely there. So summing up where we are in England right now. Lin Alden tweets RIP, Bank of England's quantitative tightening, 2022 to 2022. Muhammad Ali and again pointed out the difficulty that policymakers are faced with. Bank of England is off the sidelines with direct intervention in the government bond market who writes. It just announced temporary purchases of long dated UK bonds. This for a Central Bank that was on the verge of doing QT and hike, illustrating the intensification of its policy dilemma. A Nomura analyst wrote we are now finally proving that central banks are trapped into a BOJ like forever state of balance sheet expansion, as they are once again forced to bend the knee to market forces. Lin had written about this in her June 22 newsletter, sharing an excerpt from that piece she writes today, the BOE now joins the BOJ and ECB and having to print money despite high inflation in order to support their sovereign bond markets. In June, she had written, I think major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank, and bank of Japan are nearing the losing side of a CheckMate scenario, where economic realities dwindle their set of possible choices to zero. The latter two have already likely been put in CheckMate while the former two are hanging on for the moment. This is primarily due to the long-term debt cycle described earlier in this issue, where their economies were stimulated to higher and higher debt as a share of GDP and lower and lower interest rates over decades. Until they hit super high debt levels with zero or slightly negative rates. Then they grind through the low rate disinflationary period for a while until they finally work through excess capacity and reach a period of scarcity, stimulus and inflation. CheckMate in this context happens when a Central Bank encounters inflation that is above its target level, but still can't stop printing money due to lack of buyers of their country's government debt. Or due to other critical liquidity problems in their financial markets. In other words, it's what happens when a country with a super high debt ratio gets hit with acute commodity shortages. And thus has to keep doing quantitative easing on its government bonds even during high inflation. This historically only rarely happens to developed market central banks, and until recently hasn't really happened to any of them since World War II. The prior inflationary part of a long-term debt cycle. When it happened back then, it occurred to several regions at roughly the same time. And that seems to be the case today as well. Summing up where we are even more crisply, Sven Henrik wrote, we intervene so much we cause an inflation crisis, then we tighten so much, we're causing a global economic crisis. Now we must intervene to prevent a financial meltdown. And putting it in a crypto or Bitcoin context, CheckMate writes, about four hours ago, every analyst under the sun was in the there will be no pivot camps. They forgot about how big the debt problem was. Now the BOE is back doing QE, FX markets looking like a day on binance and government debt is radioactive. Fun times, laser eyes on. And that brings us to the crypto Twitter side of the story. As all this chaos was happening, there was a blaring headline from Bloomberg that said, truck and Miller says cryptocurrency could have a renaissance if people lose trust in central banks. Where this quote came from was CNBC's delivering alpha investor summit in New York City this morning where the famed hedge fund manager who has never had a down year sounded a harsh warning. A week ago, he said, there's a high probability in my mind that the market at best is going to be kind of flat for ten years. Sort of like this 66 to 82 time period. And at today's summit, he expanded on that thesis. Our central case is a hard landing by the end of 23. I will be stun if we don't have a recession in 23. I don't know the timing, but certainly by the end of 23, I will not be surprised if it's not larger than the so called average garden variety. He also said that he didn't rule out something worse. Discussing how quantitative easing and zero interest rates created an asset bubble, he said, all those factors that caused a bull market, they're not only stopping the reversing. Every one of them. We are in deep trouble. He called the transitory theory of inflation ridiculous, and said that the fed didn't do enough to fix it fast enough. Quote, when you make a mistake, you got to admit you're wrong and move on that 9 or ten months that they just sat there and bought a 120 billion in bonds. I think the repercussions of that are going to be with us for a long, long time. Chuck and Miller went on that Federal Reserve policy makers have, quote, put themselves in the country and most importantly, the people of the country in a terrible position. Inflation is a killer. To maximize employment over the longer term, you need to have stable prices. He also made a point that I think far too few people have been discussing, arguing that going after inflation now is fundamentally more difficult than it was in the 19 80s. In the storied Volcker period. Back then, he said, quote, the economy wasn't nearly as leveraged and we had not been through an asset bubble. Overall, he said, you don't even need to talk about black swans to be worried here. To me, the risk reward of owning assets doesn't make a lot of sense. Now, he still pointed out that in any environment there are ways to make money. Truck and Miller said he still bullish on biotechnology. And this is where he also said that cryptocurrencies might benefit. If distrust in Central Bank swells. And for all those who will clamor over the next day or weeks or months or however long this narrative lasts. To suggest that this is just yet another crypto narrative shift. I would only like to point out that I have said on this show too many times to count. That the thing that got me excited about Bitcoin in the first place was not as an inflation hedge and not as an uncorrelated asset in market terms at least, but is in a non state controlled hedge against unstable monetary regimes, wherever those regimes might be. I think the simple fact that there is a choice of an asset class that is currency like that isn't controlled by the government is inevitably going to be an important hedge for a growing number of people. And by the way, drucker Miller has also been on this for a while as well. He wasn't quite as loud as people like Paul Tudor Jones, but he still spent a lot of the fall in 2020 talking about Bitcoin and where it might go. Anyways, guys, another really interesting day. I think we might firmly be in it now. But for me, I want to say thanks again to my sponsors next to IO, chain Alice and FTX, and thanks to you guys for listening. Until tomorrow be safe and take care of each other. Peace

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