Fiat, Schwarze, U.S. discussed on The Café Bitcoin Podcast
I just wonder about that. There comes a point where we talk about Gresham's law and the reverse of that fear's law, where suddenly no amount of U.S. do you buy any Bitcoin? Or whatever the currency is that's been debased or failing or whatever it is, there comes a point in my mind where you won't be able to just go walk in and just transfer over your currency and get Bitcoin over the counter. I think about that a lot. That's what I'm saying. What do you think that what do you think the very last exchange is going to be though? That last exchange. The last fucking person who does it, you know, who makes that mistake. I don't know, bring me a bunch of garbage bags of USD for a couple of stats. I don't know. That's how it gets. I mean, you go try to try to buy a jug of milk at the store and they don't literally want that anymore, like you're having to put more and more on there. Something to think about. I mean, I've been thinking about that a lot. So I'm glad you brought it up. So in other words, all these Fiat currencies are trending towards zero. And they'll continue to translate towards zero until they literally collapse to zero. Like literally zero. Zero satoshis, a $1 million, zero satoshis. Fuck your dollars. Tell us how you really feel, Ann. I mean, wicked both of you. Did you guys see that article from schwarze? The reason one that you just put out? No, I haven't seen it. In the article, he's saying that this might take three generations. Nice. I feel like this is a typical everyone gets really, really bullish, and then everyone kind of the bear market starts getting kind of a little bit more level headed and then this kind of goes through cycles. Go ahead, Tom, though. You're going to say something. Give me just one second. I'm just chewing on a piece of food. I was just going to chime in there and say, that's just how exponentiality works, though. It sounds crazy until it doesn't sound crazy anymore. And so, I mean, the USD conversion value is going to sound absurd to everybody that's on the Fiat standard until that regime just passes by and so yeah, that last exchange rate, you're right. It's going to be a bag full of Fiat, but yeah, it's a bag full of $100 bills in exchange for stats that won't be taken. But yeah, one last person will take that bag of cash. It's crazy up until that point. But that's exactly how it's going to work. And it's not going to seem absurd at the time, but today it seems it seems pretty crazy. Yeah, then they're sweeping that money out of the streets. And let's hope that it takes three generations. For the court of the transition. Because the longer this takes, the more orderly the transition is going to be. And there's a lot of people that think that the U.S. dollar is going to be around for a while. I mean, it is the world currency. I mean, the German mark that we're comparing this to was not the world reserve currency at the time. It was the currency for that country. And it was a strong currency in Europe. But it wasn't the world reserve currency. So we're talking about different animals here. And I personally, I'm old. I'm going to be dead before there's hyper Bitcoin organization. And if I'm not, then it's going to be hyper bullet before it's hyper Bitcoin ization. That's just my opinion. So I actually have a thought about this and it's counter to what you're saying, Peter. I think that field's fucking up our world pretty bad, right? We've all seen how bad it's gotten over the past couple of decades, not to mention. Since 1971, we're all fucking kind of started, right? Like it's just gotten worse and worse and worse, right? Each generation that Fiat exists gets crazier and crazier and more and more clown world, you know? So if we wait around for three more generations, you really think there's going to be a world left for Bitcoin to take over. The world might not fucking be here. We might have blasted each other away. You know, we might have just fucking rioted and burned down everything by then. Give it a little crazy stupid shit. There's no evidence for that based on the last several decades since World War II. It's a very small percentage of people. Are you talking about in the United States of America? No, it turns out that the number of people dying in the world for more is pretty low compared to world war two, which we haven't had for 7 decades or whatever 8 decades. And Terrence, do you subscribe to the fourth turning kind of theory? But like the generational every 80 years, the cycle repeats. I think it's possible. I think it's very good narrative. It makes a lot of sense from first principles. I just don't think there's enough evidence. I don't know how I don't know enough about it. I don't know how far back they go in history. So part of what shapes reality is expectations. And if you don't have enough evidence based people believing in it, it just doesn't happen as much sometimes. History is part psychological and what people are taught and what they believe. So if they're not seeing, if evidence based people, as opposed to first principles, people aren't seeing the evidence for that because it's going to talk about it's definitely worth a read, I'd recommend it to anybody. I think Fred ski is coming along both as a writer and a thinker quite a bit. It's not his usual irate angry self, but it's a very contemplative thoughtful Alex retreat and wrote this particular article. And he's trying to just get us to consider a scenario in which I think terrance's world is playing out there some cataclysmic event that causes some collapse in the house. There's just a steady generational adoption where our generation is the first contact with this new technology. But many people don't understand it yet. And then the next generation are the people who never lived a day in their life without an existing in the background. And so they use it without this debate about, well, is it really money? How does it compare to the Fiat thing? And then the generation which follows. Has grown up using it completely. And it's ubiquitous, and there's no sense. And the point he's trying to make is this is so much bigger than merely the adoption of a technology. It's really a rewiring of how government and civilization work across and trade across the whole world. And so to expect it to happen. Suddenly, is perhaps unrealistic. I don't think anyone has the crystal ball in those for sure. There could be black swan events that accelerate decelerate certain things. But for the most part, I think that I think the point he's trying to make is this is really big. This is more than like the adoption of the iPhones or the adoption of color television, which a lot of people compare it to. And so he's just wanting to say, hold your horses. This is much more disruptive than other technologies that have come before and so it may take a lot longer. It's a good article. And I definitely need to read it as I haven't read it, but one thing I would say is, I mean, do we have any insight or any knowledge as to how quickly.