Jake He, Rufus, Van Van Gogh discussed on Thoroughbred Racing Radio Network
I think he's a horse that that might have some sneaky up Back form that makes him competitive and I think you just want as many alternatives to Totani as possible. I agree with you that Van Gogh. And and where's Rufus or both logical alternatives? So yeah I felt like I. I'm on the same page I think of winter comes from the five through nine and I think the horses that that I'm gonNA mainly focus on. We'll probably be the five and six along with Otani and I agree and I also included I picked where yeah What I do I picked. Where's Rufus on on top? And Yeah I went seven six five nine and then eight would be you know if you wanted to go five deep but depending on your budget and we'll get back to budgetary considerations after we go through the five races but I do agree about the cliffs place and certainly that race to back it towers over this group. I mean if he runs back to that He'll be tough to beat. I agree if his jockey just treats this as a race to the first turn than than it might be really all I need because if he gets lead kind of clear which I think is a real possibility. Then he's going to be very very dangerous now and we'll see how jake He was one of the top riders out. There we'll see what he does with Otani and He may scoot and boot. But you know inside of him in between. Where's Rufus who did get to the lead in tougher spot last time? Van Van Gogh and kind of interesting Owner trainer Ed Nelson and one for twenty three but adds the blinkers and utilizes the five pound bug and there may be a little bit of a scramble from the outside And the that group might be three wide. You know going into the turn so this thing. This thing could get that. That's I think the you know the variable in here and that frankly would benefit Chilly Willis and and I did wonder if if Chile Willis was originally named after the great the great character. Actor chill wills from way back the for those of you. That are old film buffs. J. Hub raising his hand. Chill wills was must have been three hundred movies Let's go to the second leg and this group was interesting because I think I want to tiptoe through here nick with maybe just a couple of players and you know again. Looking for subtle clash drops Getaway driver six to one. The regal ransom gelding from Orissa black gets a lease EAC and I thought spot a Tude was a serious player in ear at a nice price. These might to interesting horses I thought spotted. Shoot a little bit like the Schwartz of privacy were discussing is one that ran well to back then maybe a slightly poor performance last time but of course it needs to sprint and I think the cutback in distance will help quite a bit That mile obviously a three turn race and and he was never really in an ideal position. He was a little wide on multiple occasions. Obviously as we've talked about losing ground in on pouring especially at five eighth boring is just death sentence so you don't really have much of a chance if that occurs so. I thought it was a major player. Getaway driver was It's finally probably in the most realistic class whites. He's been in and his entire career. This is a horse that show potential early on and so he's the regularly facing allowance company and clearly. Last time something happened down the backstretch. He was eased by jockey about halfway through and now comes back dropping in class. Obviously not the most encouraging sign. But I do think that is born Does does a good job and he right now where he can be most effective so i. I think that this race boils down to how much you trust those two. And how much you want to dabble in El Diablo. `Grande who obviously has speed in his drawn favorably toward the inside but has developed quite a bit of camera shyness and seems like he might actually be going a little bit backwards since he got to this. High Percentage Barn. So you know you're you're gonNA take probably five to two one on a horse that that chase. The patient had no excuse last time and ended up beating twenty three to one shot by a half length that he's going to be a fraction of the price of again today. So I thought that depending on how your budget What it looks like and how much you you WanNa go in some of these other lakes. I felt like this might be a situation where you would use the grundy as a backup panic. Button on the outside is another horse. I think would be dangerous. The issue of course with him is that he's kind of a one run closer and and yeah. I don't think you're GONNA make a lot of money. Betting these types of five eighths boring so I think he obviously if there's a little bit of pace if it materializes it'll be a threat. He's clearly on his way back after a long break in a poor return against tougher company. His last two races have been much improved. So I felt like you could make a case for including him as well. That's exactly the the that I used. I've got six four two nine spotted getaway driver El Diablo Grande and panic button. And you know the problem with panic button. In addition to having come from off the pace. I don't like the fact that Lizzie AC. Who wrote him? You know to a win placement in his last two Abandoned panic button In favor of Marissa's blackened and getaway driver and in fact Black and lizzy. Aker are four for ten the last couple of years with a positive. Roi So I I'm not a big follow the kind of a player but the circuit like this in a situation like this. I think it means something. I agree I agree. I think it matters and I think it's a factor when you talk about the success. They had and the fact that he's been aboard this horse when he's one in both of the two victories and that he probably had something to do with my panic button improved in his most recent start. Let's go to the middle leg. It's the starter allowance and in a lot of ways. This may be the toughest race in the sequence. And there's a lot going on in ear There's some horses coming in from another circuit Chuck Mate on The Rail Then you've got A strong trainer angle play that I see that Marcus Hirsch actually pointed out as well in his analysis ships stalker. Ise Gonzalez Coming back on a week's rest the guys like seven for fifteen. Yeah he's he's a she's actually to some extent it has been a Texas guy in the past and I realized in looking at these Pe- I will admit I had not looked too much for the last couple of weeks but that he's got a really high percentage at foreigner and this isn't worth that clearly fits what he was trying to do which is claimed horses down. South and bring them up there that they could be effective probably at slightly higher class levels and ship stalkers. Exactly that having been taken for four thousand two then come back And Win in a in a four lifetime optional claimer obviously in for the tag now he's protected and a five thousand starter allowance. And so you know. I think primarily. The conversation boils down to the he and shooters alley shooters. Alleys obviously been very good form since joining Kelly. Martinez Barn ran a good race in the race from which he was claimed. Off Of. Isa Gonzales and Martinez clearly does a very good job at sonner. Thirty five percent on the meat and and does particularly well clearly. I think we're speed horses. So this is a horse fit. What what she was trying to do. An looks like the controlling speed. I think again in here age just going to be a matter with slightly elongated runs in the first turn if Armando Martinez wants to to push the sorts all the way to try and get the leader if he's happy to talk potentially outside forces like Smarty Party Papa or potentially commander mcdavid given that. He is effectively socked in the past. I think that makes it very very dangerous. I think he's the horse to be. I think ships stalker is is as well one of the two that you really WANNA use. I thought an interesting course in here that you want to find a way onto your ticket at a price chuck mate and and my thought process behind that is that the moves to the Bar Salvador our CEO who is thirty three percent in the last couple of years with new arrivals to his barn. He's having a very very good meet at thirty two percent. Look back at some of the sources dirt races this might a classic old fashioned cross out the synthetic forum And if you knew that I think what you're left with situation where the sources straw perfectly he's GonNa be able to save around all way around there. It's obviously a positive barn changed and those who asked to work out sort of delightful may have gone off so chuck me felt like a worst that you could find a way onto your ticket and and if ends up getting it done he could be eight or ten to one and that's certainly going to juice this thing up quite a bit. I agree and what's funny I I. I tried in my initial ticket building exercise to get away with just ship. Stocker and shooters alley however hunters appeal and commander McDevitt. We're we're just within range and either one of them feel like with you know even slight improvement and trips both six to one that either of them could upset. And then I also noticed that. Do COTY For Schuyler Khandan. Who can win? Do coty scratched yesterday for this spot. And that always raises an eyebrow and then Chuck Bait for all the reasons you just laid out so when it came down to it. I ended up using one two three five six seven. Yeah it's not gonNA rates. I I think you looked last two spurs. I went backwards and I got to the point. Really Hope There's somebody that you can can kind of latch onto and in looking through the field that I I thought it was shooters allience. I worked from the outside in and realize no. That's not the case. There are actually quite a few contenders and as much as I think. a weary handicapper would like to just feed the race. Horse like shooters alley. It's not not the prudent thing to do agreed and especially because You know for this thing to pay. I mean it's GonNa pay. Let's let's guests from you. What is this going to handle? I mean I would. I would imagine probably a million plus Y- I think more yeah million and a half probably I mean.