Andrew Natsios, Natsios Cassandra, President George W Bush discussed on Hidden Brain
Time. Because I'm kind of aggressive person. You know so. Even though I'm all I'll be seventy next year my wife said will you please calm down. She's been saying it for forty three years now. It hasn't happened. The actual name of this Cassandra is Andrew Natsios. His moment of prophecy involved a life and death choice that affected hundreds of thousands of people. Before we get to that we need to you understand the formative moments in Andrew's career in many ways. He was an unlikely hero in the nineteen eighties. He sold in the Massachusetts House of Representatives at the Republican National Committee meeting in Nineteen Eighty Eight. He didn't exactly get the star. Treatment chair recognizes nested acids from Maryland Massachusetts Natsios from Massachusetts Printing here. Sorry before he he got to his Cassandra moment. Andrew was brought in to salvage a Boondoggle of transportation project in Boston the big it redirected a massive highway into a tunnel under the city. Andrew came in several years into the project. At that point it was a mess with huge cost overruns. Andrew had two things going thing for him he had experienced leading big institutions and he had his temperament. I'm sort of a type A.. Personality very kind of aggressive and a dominant figure in any institution that I run so I could get the institution to do what I wanted to do what I thought was right to do. Do he was in fact able to figure out why the project's finances were out of whack. But his efforts were always appreciate it. It was the most difficult year of my career. Actually I actually felt safer in Sudan and Iraq and Afghanistan that I did in Boston. One person threatened to break my neck while I was investigating the big dig and I always threatened once. I took over to someone to threaten to kill me then to Angela. Andrew had spent much of his career overseas his experience leading several national and international organizations coffee of President George W Bush who appointed him to lead. UCSD that's the agency responsible for America's involvement in international development. It's here that Andrew had his prophetic moment in two thousand and three Andrew briefed top members of the Bush administration about escalating violence in Sudan by that point marauders charging into villagers setting them on fire sending civilians fleeing they were known as a Jesuit. The quickly took over a vast industy reach in on on the edge of the Sahara Darfour Andrews warnings and advice had an impact the US applied billions of dollars in aid to sedan over the next several years inspired. The economic difficulties are aid will continue to flow President Bush all to put political pressure on Sudanese leaders. Some of his measures were behind the scenes others more public. The news media began to take note today. President Bush announced tough new economic sanctions against Sudan on over the continued persecution of minority population in Darfur his Andrew's actions at UCSD have become a case study on effective warnings. That's according to Christoph Mayer professor F- European and International Politics at King's College London. Christoph has spent many years studying how warnings are made and which Schwann's managed to break through the noise. He says there are several reasons. Andrew Natsios managed to persuade the Bush administration to act one is he was able to to show how a further escalation With many hundreds of thousands of people that was was highly likely and he was able to kind of put put that into a presentation chart the escalation of the conflict into the future. Andrew commissioned a study that predicted how many people would die if the. US didn't intervene gene. He also got us spy-satellites to take pictures of Darfur to photograph the ground every day to show the villages that were being burned from day. Hey today and these photographs were so clear that the photographs were unimpeachable. In terms of their quality quality in terms of what the atrocities were in the they earn thirty villages they displaced two million people so Andrew laid out clear evidence since there was something else that helped make the case to the president he was an insider. was I taken seriously. Yes because I had a relationship with the president's that's the president's plural he camping twice George h.w Bush and he had worked on the George W Bush campaign two thousand. He was not seen as one of these. As you know do-gooders now one of these kind of a liberal NGO types. Yes you had a history in the NGO sector. He was an expert but he was also kind conservative. Pedigree he had experienced in the armed forces he was seen as someone who understood that the president's time was precious and understood the preferences and and he was seen as kind of pot of us and therefore if someone who was seen as a kind of someone who's GonNa almost national security type if someone like that would warn on about the consequences of that kind of conflict in that country he he would be taking so much more seriously than someone who is seen in a very different front light. Besides his political credentials Andrew was also an insider in another way. He was a Christian who spent years leading an international Christian NGO NGO. He knew that. George W Bush's identity as a Christian was important to him and important to his reelection chances in two thousand four. Christoph Mayor says is Andrew laid out the political consequences of inaction and are four. Where many of the civilians being attacked Christian he was able to show how that kind kind of esscalation would be politically relevant to the Bush administration at the time how it would impact on the reelection chances in how that would connect to Christian constituency in the US which of course one of the supporting constituencies of the Bush administration because it was also Christians who were in incident? We're watching affected by this violence. Andrew implicitly understood a widespread psychological bias. We all tend to look more sympathetically at suffering when the people who are suffering. Have something in common with us. There's another part to this. Andrew was successful because he did not President Bush to make a major u-turn from the very beginning of his administration. The president had been interested in what was happening in Sudan. The first presidential review that the president ordered was on Sudan policy now what came to be known as a genocide dot four did claim hundreds of thousands of lives so it may be hard to see Andrews warning as effective Steph and yet if Andrew had not acted Kristof says he believes things would have turned out worse. I think the Bush Administration did acted didn't act very early but it did act politically put pressure on the conflict parties and they did act I think as soon as could be probably expected on the humanitarian front therefore saving lives through military action. I couldn't have done that alone. President Bush did it. I have to say I said in my book. I think he he ended. What could have been another Rwanda genocide so Andrew Natsios? We have a plain spoken leader breath. He had the insider credentials to get others on board. And he didn't ask policymakers to do something that was greatly at odds with what they wanted to do anyway. In contrast that with doomed prophet we heard about earlier. CASSANDRA spoken riddles. Prophetic riddles meritas nonetheless. Sir Let them off endlessly gorging on this plan Reza Shriek over the sacrifice on which stones will fall there. Third Unlike Andrew. Natsios Cassandra wasn't an insider as emily. Wilson says even if somebody is speaking the truth if it's coming from the mouth of an unauthorized person for somebody has dismissed US other than that can make it possible to dismiss even a very clear autoclave. Scary Truth and Cassandra was too far ahead of everyone else. When she and the other children women are being captured as slaves? She doesn't explain that she's he's happy because she knows the Greeks are going to be killed. She conceded to the future but she doesn't take others along with her. There are lessons since here for our own time. Christoph says many modern CASSANDRA's forget it's hard for most people to look far into the future leaders especially are often pulled in different directions directions paying attention to one risk means fewer resources for others. If you come in with a vague warning about a distant problem you're going to get sideline sideline Samantha. Power wrote in a problem from Hell about the response from one administrator to the warning that that was given that unless his telephones where ringing saying he couldn't do anything so even if he believed that what she was saying is right. He was so constrained by the lack of incensio puppet clamoring In the beltway the support for acting that you couldn't do something. Cassandra also asked the people. She was trying to warn to stretch too. Far Outside at their comfort zone remember him. Nestor as giving agamemnon lovely bath before she hacks him to death. CASSANDRA saw it coming. Look at this look. Keep away from the Heifer but agamemnon wasn't a head space where he could hear the warning Kristof says this happens depends with real life. CASSANDRA's and real life policymakers. If leaders have to reject some foundational believed to act on a warning. There's a strong chance that they will simply clearly ignore the warning. Quite often What makes warnings so difficult to believe it is i? Is there political inconvenience In fact this is exactly what happened in the case of the Challenger space shuttle disaster. A scientific inquiry found that several engineers had had it concerns about the safety of what came to be known as the O. Rings on the shuttle the tool NASA managers to delay the launch by the managers overrule the engineers his and the challenge. I took off his plan here looking very carefully. Obviously a major malfunction. We've painted a picture of warnings. That is at odds with the way most of us think about that in the conventional telling someone raises an alarm and everyone John Jumps up and does something about it. In reality warnings are likely to be heard when they're made by someone who's part of our in group when the warning is so imminent the newly everyone can see the danger and where the solution doesn't require a radical shift in existing strategy unsurprisingly. This means that many warnings will go unheeded and many CASSANDRA's will be dismissed in Greek. Mythology CASSANDRA was cursed to be ignored. Ignored there really wasn't anything she could do to get people to believe her for the CASSANDRA's in our own midst the curse is even more terrible facets facets of the human mind make it difficult for us to pay attention to warnings and difficult to act on them until it's nearly.