Rishi Sunak, Europe, Valeri Perez discussed on Monocle 24: The Globalist
And valeri Perez for the Republicans at 4.8%. 6 or 7 years ago, these were just big political beasts, the absolute establishment on the French political spectrum, and they have just been absolutely destroyed, haven't they? Yes, it's funny. I haven't seen that much reflection of Macron's success, I suppose, in creating his own movement. I think there's a worry that it is him and his people around him that he hasn't really built it up. But yes, it is really interesting as to what has happened to the big parties of the center left and the center right. And I'm sure there will be a lot of soul searching in the weeks to come and particularly because there's legislative elections coming up as well in a few months where the picture is probably going to be different and they've still got the organization there. But I wouldn't be surprised if behind the scenes. A lot of people were really worrying as to what happened. What happened to the center that isn't the Macron center, if you like. Finally, let's touch on a bit of the British domestic politics. There's been revelations over the last few days about the tax status of the wife of the British Chancellor Rishi sunak. The his wife has now said that she will pay tax on her overseas earnings, which amounts to several tens of millions of pounds. But instead of taking this on the chin and accepting that this is a reputational damage exercise, Rishi sunak has decided to launch an investigation into who leaked the story to the independent. I mean, what does that say about his I don't know Dara said his ability to read the room? Well, yeah, I think he's sort of launched two separate investigations now. So looking at The Guardian this morning, he had already asked for a leak inquiry, which is if you like a classic Whitehall way of trying to shunt responsibility on something else saying it's not about the substance, it's about who told this to some journalists. He's now also asked the prime minister for a separate investigation into his own tax affairs. So he has written to Boris Johnson asking him to ask us in the prime minister to ask the independent adviser on ministerial interests for a review of everything that he's done since he became a minister in 2018. And again, this is another, it keeps the story going and well, it stops so the Labor Party we're asking for all sorts of investigations into this. But it is often one of the ways to say, look, well, I can't really talk about that now because there's obviously I've referred myself to the independent adviser and there's an investigation going on. So can we not talk about this now for a little while? But I think this is a story that's certainly not going away. There have been questions over whether she seen act was right to keep hold of his U.S. green card, even up to the point while he was a senior minister. And so I think all of these are attempted deflections, but I'm not sure that they're entirely going to work. Thank you so much for joining us on the line from the book clues in France. Listening to the globalist. Now amid mounting pressure to cut ties with Russian energy providers, many European governments are scrambling to find alternatives, but how quickly can this be done? Well, that's the focus of this week's edition of the foreign desk, in which Andrew Muller takes a closer look at Europe's long-standing dependence on Russian fossil fuels. Andrew heard from the Pulitzer Prize winning energy expert Daniel Jurgen and Bloomberg's energy and commodities columnist Javier blass, Andrew began by asking Javier to explain what would happen if Europe announced it was ending all Russian energy imports immediately. Wow, the consequences of something as radical as that will be quite catastrophic for Europe. We will see within days, probably shortages of gasoline and diesel. So we will have to rise on how much fuels we can take on our cars and our trucks, some countries, particularly Germany, will struggle to keep the lies on because they rely so much on coal and gas from Russia for electricity production. And also, and crucially, a lot of the heavy and energy intensive industry in Europe will have certainly to shut down on reduced activities. We will go to something that only people that went through the crisis in the 70s remember that these are a three day week that will be the only way to cope if we were to do it juice all in one go and overnight. So just to follow that up, you don't think it's quite as simple as has been suggested in a few quarters as turning down our thermostats a few degrees to save Ukrainian lives. Andrew, let me jump in there. It's absolutely not simple to do it. It would be a vast disruption it would be a bigger disruption than the 1970s. You would have to deep drop in GDP if you did it like that. And you would have protests on the streets by truckers and motorists and other people. It would be destabilizing for the politics of Europe. That comparison that Javier raised there and I'll put this to you Dan with the big oil shocks of the early 1970s. Do you think we are potentially on the verge of something that serious? I think that you have to think about it as what the risk is and is there a potential, not going to say that it will happen, but I think that the possibility is really there as this war goes on. And, you know, it's always whether you live through it or not, the iconic comparison is the 1970s. This potentially and I only emphasize potentially could be worse because this involves not only oil, but it involves natural gas, it involves coal, and it involves two countries that are the nuclear superpowers. You didn't have all of that going on in the 1970s. So you have to be very mindful of the risk and that Putin is not only launched a war, but he's created a vast and uncertain disruption in global energy markets. Javier, if we think then about not doing this tomorrow, but trying to do this more gradually, how quickly could Europe get itself to a point where it wasn't reliant on Russian energy. How quickly, for example, could Germany replace its supplies of Russian gas with perhaps liquid natural gas from the United States. Well, the first thing that Germany will need to do is to get a rig association unit to be able to import the LNG, which at the moment they don't have any, they may get a floating one, which is basically a vessel attached to a pore that does the job, but it's a small one as a temporal measure. They will need to import B other countries, France, Spain, the Netherlands, but then you get into pipeline problems to transfer the gas from those countries into Germany. This is going to take time and the Germans have said that they can perhaps do it in two years, oil and coal can be done quicker, but all of that will be still disruptive. It will be significantly expensive and is harder to do that it seems. But certainly we can send the signal and say we are going to do this amount less of gas or oil or coal every month to reduce the flows from Russia and therefore to heart the Kremlin financially, which at the moment Europe has not done. Dan, what do you think? Does the speed with which the United States, for example, has become a major LNG produced to teach us anything about how quickly a major economy can reorient itself if it's really determined to do that. I think it is quite remarkable and it's one of the things that I wrote about in the new map, which is amazing. The U.S. only sent its first cargo of LNG in 2016 and in 2022, the U.S. is going to be the largest exporter of LNG in the world. And that's where I really got the idea of the title of the book, the new map because who thought about the U.S. shipping energy to Europe without U.S. LNG right now, it would be a much tougher situation for Europe about half of the LNG that Europe is now receiving comes from the United States. And Andrew, in the first half of January, there was a time when actually the U.S. LNG to Europe was greater than the volumes of gas coming from pipelines from Russia. So it is a big deal, and it shows it can be done, but a point obvious that these things don't happen overnight because you're talking about a lot of engineering and a lot of scale. And the G experts Daniel Jurgen and Javier blas there. You can listen to the full conversation by tuning into this week's edition of the foreign desk. It's 8 53 in Madrid, which is where we head for today's final item, such as the abundance of flowers and plants in Jan brueghel the elders and Peter Paul Rubens painting, the sense of smell that it was once claimed you could inhale the scent of spring itself simply by looking at it..