Jim Glassman, FED, Jpmorgan Chase discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance


Nathan Hager along with Tom Keane and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg surveillance that was the opening bell on Wall Street and stocks are opening this morning. Little change. The S&P 500 is up 5 points or a tenth percent, 4085 for the S&P level, the Dow Jones down 33 points down about a tenth percent at 34,562, the NASDAQ is higher by 5 points, little changed at 11,474. Ten year treasuries down four 30 seconds, the old 3.62% yield on the two year 4.32%. Nymex crews up 2.8% or $2 24 cents at 82 82 a barrel, comex gold is up 3% or $53 80 cents at 1813 80 ounce. The Euro 1.0504 against the dollar the yen at one 36.10. That's the Bloomberg business flash, Tom and Paul. Nathan, thanks so much for watching and presidents of the United States and France at The White House on the south lawn. They just promenade it in grass in front of assembled military and members of The White House. Now their Paul, what is that? Is that like American revolutionaries or French rocks? I don't know. It's very cool. Very pompy in circles. I mean, this is a French. You got to pull out your a game, I think. I mean, you go over to Paris and they're not going to, they're going to give you some good stuff. It is a perfect day on a December 1st in Washington to have these festivities. 30 days ago, we called them the smartest guy in the block. He is more so now. His name is James Glassman. He's a JPMorgan Chase. He's the lead economist for the commercial banking of a rather large bank. He has absolutely nailed the resiliency of labor in America. Jim Glassman, good morning. You start our jobs coverage. Do you still see a resilient employment picture for chairman Powell? I do. And I think I get to a question I'm getting from clients a lot is, look, my business is good. We see this in the labor market. But why did all this worry about recession? And it really comes down to how far do you think the fed is willing to push rates to shut the system down. And honestly, I think lael brainard, the fed vice chair, has been giving some really thoughtful speeches about this that help you understand why there's such a difference of opinion. Her comments are, look, demand is recovered. It's fine. But supply is recovering more slowly because of all these dislocations. And ordinarily, you would look through all that and say, you know, it'll take care of itself. There were at the fed. And it's still a theoretical worry is that supply is being permanently hurt by all these shots. And if so, that would explain why the fed staff tells you they think demand is too much it's too much about potential. But I really think that we're resilient because our economy is much more resilient. And I really think that we're beginning to see evidence of disinflation. And I think the fed is going to be a little more cautious. Part of the glass I'm going to claim, folks. This is years and years ago, Pauly, I think it was like before Truman and I think Jim Glassman folks did original research on what is happened to teenage employment. Let's go to the other age cohort, Jim Glassman. One of the theories is out there. We really don't know who retired or if they retired permanently in the pandemic. What are old people doing? What is the Glassman knowledge there? They try to they're probably disappointed by what retirement looks like. We don't really know how many people have dropped out. And I hear from a lot of clients that there are guys that retire, they're sort of creeping back and working part time arrangements and things like that. So we are in the middle of a major demographic shift. And I think that's one of the reasons why the labor force participation is down so much. And then I think, I think that's what's on the fed's mind. If more Americans don't want to work and we're retiring, or doing something else, well, that means the economy can't produce as much as it did. It could before. But I really think we're going to find when things normalize. It's going to feel a little more normal down the road. Paul, northwestern years ago, and this is a true story. You get to labor economics and you think it's like a joke, and then you realize you're probably not going to pass the exam. Blasphemy is there with a slide rule out. And so and he's going, I don't think he was the only one who passed that day under Gordon. I mean, western music. He is the Jim is the pride of a Big Ten, Tom. University of Illinois undergraduate. University of Illinois masters in economics. So no fun at all, but he doubles down on this economic so you can get a PhD at northwestern. So all in on the Big Ten. Jim, you're a JPMorgan Chase commercial bank. That means your bankers talk to every company in America and the world for that matter small. Midsize large corporations, multinationals. What are they telling you about a recession in 2023? Well, that's what's interesting. I mean, I learned so much from the guys who are running small businesses because they're having to think out ten years. The big guys, I mean, there's a lot going on. This is what they tell me. And I get this question a lot. I'm doing fine. Why is the world around me talking about recession? And that's why we're sitting here, we economists are sitting around arguing about, is there a recession in the horizon or not that depends on what the fed's going to do? There's been nothing that's happened so far that would make you think you're looking at a recession. And that's why I think it's interesting to me. Honestly, if there is a recession brewing, guys running businesses are going to it's going to take time for them to see it. So there could be a leg here. But I really think when I listen to them, it sounds to me like a lot of what you see in the jobless claims trends in the labor market data, things right and you look around you right now, it's looking pretty good. And worry is what's coming. Exactly right. And you think about it, Jim, I mean, the fed's been so aggressive in raising rates. As you're well aware, Jim, there's a school of thought out there that says, you know, these take time to work their way through the economy 6, 9, 12 months before we start to see the impact, wouldn't it be prudent for the fed to just kind of step back and pause here, is that a reasonable scenario? Or is it or is it just kind of a step down scenario, which is what the chairman is talking about? I think

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