Alex Tolin, Spencer Mccowen, Five discussed on Networth Radio


The investor McGowan group clients, and it comes from real portfolio managers. You and I in this together. I'm Spencer McCowen President McGowan Group and Alex Tolin, co host. A technical trader with vast experience. Plus, he's head of client development to help you make great decisions. The title of today's program. Dangerous assumptions, Alex. Dangerous assumptions. Dangerous. Okay, Cordon. My What's first question on this. I'll get this started. What are the five most dangerous assumptions and investors are making in 2021? We're going to get to that shortly. Well, when I when I asked when, when you go through these questions It's going to frame the top five most dangerous assumptions in our opinion, of course, uh, 4 2021 because I'm seeing some assumptions that where the math doesn't work and investing is about math. Yeah, eventually, right eventually. It's about the underlying man. Okay? What's next? Why did U s Treasury yields dropped so dramatically this week, 10 Year treasury of one and a quarter. That's you know, it's just right for the pandemic. We're getting 2% money markets. Yeah. Now you get one and a quarter with next question. What is duration risk? And why does it matter? Well, there's some assumptions built into fixed income allocations. That seemed to leave behind the dangers of duration risk. What's next? Does real estate always go up in price? You know, there seemed to be a lot of people at this moment convinced that real estate Never goes down in price. We saw this before right back in 2000 and 6 2000 and seven All the home flippers. There's news articles about him. Home flippers said by five or six houses all at the same time. Oh, yeah, and they borrow the money to do it. Yep. And guess what. Smart guess what happens when you can't sell them? That's ah, unfortunate. We've had some clients that Had two houses because they were in the process of moving sure, and that was pretty tough. That was a pretty tough note to carry and it was one of them had to be refinance because his construction And then when all hell broke loose, it wasn't easy to refinance. So that was that. That was an interesting time period, so real estate doesn't always go up in price. But Seem to be a lot of assumptions, which will get to, uh, that real estate does always go up. Okay? Do stocks always go up in price? Longer term? Well, the the charts would say eventually. How long do you have? That's that's that's a key and we'll cover the time periods. Where stocks didn't make progress and actually had corrections and that will lead me to the efficient frontier when I cover a little bit about that, too, okay, efficient frontier. Coming up and what will cover some of good math. Bad math when it comes to efficient frontier in Monte Carlo simulations perfect, which are driving portfolios based upon the fact That interest rates are always going to fall. That's a bad assumption. Too dangerous assumption. Okay, what's next? What will happen to the cryptocurrencies below the top five names? How many are there? Well, you said over 10,000 last week, maybe 11 by now being, but anyway, there's so tent will say, 10,000 cryptocurrencies. Some of them have had the bid price go to zero, and we've got a whole crypto update. But CNBC and others carry just the top five names. Bloomberg to you know they'll show you that Bitcoin ethereum ripple. They'll cover the biggest And I'm just wondering what happens to the also rans. If those five make up about half of the market capitalization that's in crypto The other 10,000 or so Well, that I mean, most people don't even know what they are. You can. You can almost view this through the lens of what happened in the Internet bubble and how many of those companies Survived. Good question. Not very many. Oh, most of them. It's so you made your hat. You had five or 10 and you had a couple newcomers after the bubble, but, uh yeah, A lot of the other ones didn't make it, and those coin admits they were started as a joke. I feel bad for the guy who started it a picture of the dog. He didn't even own any. He didn't know. He just made it up. Yep. Okay. A lot of people making stuff up here. We're okay. This is good. All right now there's another dangerous assumption. What happens after taking on too much leverage? Well, you may have made a dangerous assumption when you take on leverage, right? And it's a lot of fun. Get a new car until about the fifth or sixth payment. You know, then you're like, uh, I think you've said something about this. Earned 20 spend 19 happiness. Erin Tony spent 21 misery. That's where cash flow comes in, and the program will focus on cash flow in a zero interest rate environment where Your cash is getting nothing. And that doesn't seem fair at all. Okay. How can we identify overvaluation dangers? Math. Uh, I should have. I should have held back on the answer till the very end of the program. But we're going to cover some of the math, so I'm just starting the answer. I'm just starting And how do I find a great team to help? Look no further. You found it. Go to network radio dot com. Click become a client fill out the questionnaire and you'll hear from from me. Well, you can meet the team. Yeah, right there. Click meet the team as well. And you can see the results that's posted for the group of clients and I think I think that's that's a good answer and The charts and graphs are coming up as we go through the program will grab the charts and graphs that make the most sense. Yeah. All right. This is the headline round up portion of the program where the top financial headlines most important headlines are there or sometimes will bring up a headline. That is actually and debug it and say that's actually not important. Yeah, we had to do that a lot with the trade wars. Oh, that's right. We had trade wars, didn't we? Oh, it's going to is going to be terrible is gonna be a global depression and never trade wars and Dow go down 1000 points and everybody gets spun up and Well, we know. I mean, I didn't really have an impact. Okay? I have some trade war intelligence, by the way. What do you got going to interject here? So, Yeah. China is coming up here in a second, but go ahead, okay? Yeah. So client imports a lot from China. And he said, this is likely this supply chain logistics are likely going to do what the tariffs could not, and that's actually pushed manufacturing to United States back here. Yeah, he's like, Bring it home, baby. We're looking for all the suppliers. We can get right here because you don't know how long it's going to take or one it's gonna get here. And you don't want to have to bribe people to get it. The chip shortage fabricate, fabricate fabricator. Fabricate baby fabricate. It's not as good as drill baby drill, but that's uh, that's a good start. And speaking of The top headline begins with O Canada. Keystone Pipeline Builder sues Biden administration. Yes, that's right. I skipped over one headline, but let's cover this first. Okay, Okay for people that are worried about the economy. That's the next deadline. All right? Yep. DC energy. Um, is, uh, seeking damages $15 billion against the government. For breaching its NAFTA obligations. Well, there were you know, there's more to this story decision prevented 48,000 new jobs from being created, the firm said. So the Canadians You know they're more politically aligned with the Biden administration. But this nixing a pipeline that this company had devoted over a decade and billions of dollars to to bring friendly Canadian heavy crude. Down to the Gulf Coast, which has a refining advantage, which mixed with West Texas intermediate crude from what our energy clients tell us. Then it gives exported vantage and you don't have to bring oil. Troublesome oil from the Middle East. And it has less sulfur from Canada. So that's so they spent over a decade. They spent billions doing it and it was like, Oh, no, We're just changing the policy. No. You have contracts in place. You have NAFTA. There were permissions. Granted, There was a tremendous uh there was a tremendous amount of Agreement that went from many, many different parties there. So sometimes you just can't say Oh, I don't like the deal because that's called breach of contract. Yeah, you have 19 states that are in the lawsuit Also. Mm. Okay. I would imagine Texas in there too. Yeah. Well and we'll get to the energy market here in just a second, a An exciting trading week. Okay, tell us about GT. This is not my sister. Her name's DD too. But, yeah, You know, my mom. My mom's name is Dee Dee. Really? Yeah. You know when, Okay, So let's tell the DD story and I'll interject something about my sister. You're a just second whether what the CCP say the DD tonight too. Okay, anyway, D Did he die? I guess it's dd dot com. A, uh, the Chinese ray ride hailing service? Yes. Um, they went public. Okay? And the Chinese government said, Well, wait a minute. We're not going to add, bide or adhere to U. S listing auditor requirements. Um and so The stock tanked well, and they they just they said..

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