Liberal Democrats, United States, Brexit discussed on Serious Inquiries Only

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And that's what they wanna be able to stop. I'm not saying it's right or wrong. I'm just telling you one of the first things. I saw. Boris Johnson already putting hikes unlike immigration requirements. Fireman's things like that so this idea of addressing immigration and is it based on xenophobia in what racism. I'm not going to deny that but there's also again. It's not unique to Britain those kinds of attitudes or you know racism but you know I guess there would people would be very hard pressed to say you should call everyone who voted for Brexit or anyone who is concerned about immigration are racist. And so that's the kind of line that Nigel farage tries vice to walk between having sensible immigration policy but also sometimes dog whistling so that or playing into very racist tropes. So so that's a again. That kind of tensions people are looking at talked about though here here in the US When we talk about the role that racism played in our own election in the sort of scapegoating of immigrants on Donald Trump for example? Very famously on the day that he announced his candidacy described Mexicans. As on you know rapists People have sort of tried to make sense of this by saying well you know it's it's white fright and people are afraid of their economic comic opportunities and they're just they're feeling anxious about their ability to provide a future for their children and racism is really a result of of feeling like your existing at a time with like economic precarity. And I'm curious how or to what extent you think that is a legitimate explanation at all on either in the United States or the UK on or how that changes given that you know the UK has substantial stanchart substantially more sort of safety net programs in place Than we do here in the United States and there isn't quite as acute a pressure on on people for example if you if you live in the UK you don't have to worry that you're going to go bankrupt and potentially lose your home if you get sick or not afford your insulin I'm just curious what your sense of that is and if your research has kind of unpacked the relationship between these two things that's a huge question. So I mean I can. I can take bits and pieces of it I remember being at a elections public opinion and parties conference friends after Brexit. They had done analysis of attitudes of people who voted for Brexit. Now can't talk to you about racist attitudes but what I can tell you. Is that when they did the analysis. What they found was that generally voters realized that they would We take my asking you. Are you willing to take long-term or short-term losses for control over immigration immigration and the people who supported Li. We're like yeah even though it might hurt us economically in the short term. We think long-term controlling our borders is actually going to be better for us I see comically and so we'll take the short term hip to leave in order to gain that long-term security so that was born out by the data. That's that's about as far as I can tell you that that is empirically. Based that I I've heard on that yet is tough because obviously you can't just be like hey are you racist and then the yes and then that's the ball so you're saying yoga immigration wasn't so much a topic in at least from what why heard from my participants. It was more just the idea of Brexit itself and the weight of it and trying to move past it as a country Also some people were voting just on Brexit like they thought that was the most pressing issue other people. Were like whatever's going to happen with Brexit is going to happen with Brexit but whatever government weakened again. That's what we have to live under so I'm voting for the labour. I am voting for Conservative based on that and some people were like I don't know part of it is brexit part of policy I'm kind of torn to because what if I vote for. I'd like the government I I like Labor on policy but I don't like their position on Brexit and I don't really like the Tories but I wanted to get brexit. So how do I vote. And that's the kind of thing that people were the wrestling. Yeah and and it seems like it was complicated by the fact that as as you said. There wasn't really a clear. Anti Brexit path in this election action. Is that right at all. Sword of those kind of muddle right. Yeah yeah the Liberal Democrats Nice Way to segue into the the other part another party. Thomas The Liberal Democrats were offering a very clear alternative to me. They're just going to quit the whole process. They were going to revoke article fifty. They'RE GONNA we're GonNa what do over stuff everything but was the problem that there's not enough of. It wasn't realistic enough. Is that when you know. Vote their third party over here kind of thing or no. Yeah Yeah I mean. The thing is liberal. Democrats were in coalition with the conservative. So they had deep suspicion of form. A lot of people on the left for being basically would calm yellow Tories because is yellow the color of the Liberal Democrats also. There's just not enough of them and they really only run. I guess they had some seats at one point in Scotland even they have anymore But they're they're pretty. They're kind of like these call a two and a half party system because you have labor and conservative but then Liberal Democrats do well where Labor doesn't or sometimes they do you well worth the conservatives. Do they're kind of this weird party. Basically that's a lot of game theory to expect an average voter to like figure out like okay we. You should definitely do this here. If from one interesting thing that we discovered from doing qualitative research is the extent to which voters if you say. Well how are you gonNA vote. You know coming up on Tuesday day. They'll say well. I'm in a safe conservative seat. Or let's say I'm an marginal Lipton Labor seat or I'm in a safe labor seat and what voters tend to do in this makes sense. It's we don't think about it in our modeling but think about other options in the context of where they can vote and so if they're a labour voter in a safe conservative seat and there's a competitive additive Liberal Democrat and they don't really see you know like well. My vote doesn't matter I'm a labor person I can't vote Liberal Democrat I'M GONNA put my vote matters this election. They were more likely to vote tactically and say. Hey I've always been labor but in this case I'm GonNa Vote Liberal Democrat to try to keep the conservative so we did see an increase in tactical voting. And that way. But I don't think I think any I'm getting away from your question. Yeah now well that's okay. I did want to go back to because You mentioned the education gap and that's certainly happening here. Obviously I think think I wonder how permanent these trends are but you know you think about it for the US election for example it feels like virtually every four years. It's like something like like fifty fifty you like. Obviously it's forty nine or whatever forty nine fifty one hundred but it feels like okay. It's basically the countries but like that doesn't really factor in that people kind kind of resort themselves. You know and I'm looking at the you know the polls right now For Two Thousand Sixteen one of the biggest ways that I think people have re sorted themselves over the years especially with trump. Is the education gap. So people you know. Higher Education voted overwhelmingly liberal roll. And there's a huge gap for people out college degrees that Voted Republican overwhelmingly. and I wonder if this is just so my question is ultimately going to be if you think this is a permanent change In either country or both countries. Or if it's just a particular result of the candidates and the In the elections we've had Because it's it used to be and you talk about you know the Labor Party it used to be. I think that's certainly true or sorry. I think that's Maybe we also true over here with With Democrats which is you know. It wasn't always all about higher. Education equals laughed lower. Education was right. Wasn't always that. Because is there's also the nexus of you know if if you're less educated you you maybe need that union job more and and you know. Democrats are pro union and Etcetera Etcetera. So there was maybe more of a cross section where I it didn't divide so neatly and I think Correct me if I'm wrong. Similar thing was probably going on with with Labor we're in the UK. And so. I wonder my question is. Do you think that's over to do you. Do you expect that trend to continue. That things will just be kind of resorted along eh lines or if you if the UK for example gets through this brexit thing is just kinda done as a done issue then then maybe things kind of go back to normal. What's what's your expectation there so I think that well in the US for a while it was the you had Education and if you had a bachelors degree you be left but if you had a masters degree probably had a business degree so you wrote a conservative but then if you had a phd you voted Democrat again like a higher degree. But now you're right. I mean there is an association and you do see differences especially between White College educated women and and White Non College educated women. There's quite a gap I mean. I'm African American. Women are voting Democrat women of color like communities of color. You've definitely vote support the Democratic Party. More it's generally white people who split on those educational lines more so than we do but I think if it was just education it wouldn't wouldn't be enough but what this really has to be understood with is the you know the de-emphasis this loss of a strong class identity Ten years ago even when I started with you know steadying. Tony Blair was the first election. A two thousand five and pilot and people were talking about Thatcher you know people in the focus. Group talked about growing up with Thatcher but people who are in their twenties. Now don't remember Thatcher. They don't remember the miners strike. They don't remember what she did or any of that sort of class identity that happened to their parents or their grandparents at this point and because of consumerism and because of service the rise of service sector jobs you just don't have I mean people would say you know like we heard this in Scotland before a Labor alienated cell from a lot of the Scottish voters. We're lifelong long labor. My grandfather voted labour. My Dad voted labour. You know I voted my labor my whole life but this summer voting. SNP So there's that class Decline in the working classes. That's given over to it. And then the other thing that I think is going to make it. A permanent or more. Permanent thing is one psychological psychological in to fund government funding for psychological. What what we found in our Q ESP study was that people have long-term partisan identification it? It takes it takes psychological work to break that identity and so we had a couple of people to Labor people in to conservative people. I think it was in two thousand ten who are thinking about voting running for the Liberal Democrats really like Nick Clegg or thinking about Kind of fed up with my party and fed up with a two party system. When I try something new maybe vote Nick?.

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