Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Wisconsin discussed on Michael Berry
The commentary editor at the Washington Examiner, and that's where the piece was published. That we're discussing election experts say Trump is 99.5% likely to lose. Here's the simple reason they're wrong. Tim. Do you think all this talk about Poles effects? The results? Particularly. Do you think that people say Well, if Trump can't win, I'm not going to show up vote or Do you think they say? Well, looks like Biden is gonna win. I don't need to show up vote. I didn't think so. I think that four years ago Ah Trump might not have won Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. If people knew he had a chance of winning. I think there were people who you've got to combine it with Hillary Clinton's unprecedented unlike ability. People did not like Hillary. They did not want to vote for her. But some of them said Well should be better than trump. But then imagine that voter who then believes, um, that Trump doesn't have a chance, because again and Wisconsin Trump was down by 6.5. I think in the polls Um And so that person is going to say I'm not going to go out of my way to vote for this woman who I have no interest in voting for just cast a symbolic vote. So I do think the Poles can influence voters understanding of the importance of the For instance, and, um Rai vote in Maryland. A lot of times if the Republican is not somebody I like I just say, look, this person I don't like him. They're down by 20 points. I'm going to vote for somebody actually pro life. But then, if the votes if the race is looking close my governor Larry Hogan, Um he's been in close races both times or possibly close races both times. So you had no hesitation voting from so Surely the polls do influence how people vote. Christmas Eve, my brother and I would beg our mom. When we were growing up. We wanted to open our presents early. We couldn't wait till the next day and there was so much buildup. Right? Do you think that all of this talk of polls? It's it's constant. From Washington Post New York Times and the like. Do you think this is because they can't wait on the result? Because they're so excited and they live it or do you think it's a conscious attempt to our conscious or not? It's an attempt to skew the election and sort of suppressed the trump enthusiasm. I don't think it's an attempt to Ah skew the election. I do think that we're there and then cast years We've gotten almost all the results on election night and we're sitting there and used to be able to Counted. What the Media wants this to be exciting, so that means we have to have information that's valuable, and that requires two things assuming it's close. And assuming that we actually have real information this year may or may not be close. I think, um, I think you're silly if you rule out Trump, but I also think it's possible by to get the blowout. But also there's a possibility that on election night we're not actually going to get On Christmas morning as it is, we're not actually gonna get her presence that a lot of the results are not going to come in because of unprecedented vote by mail and so Pennsylvania. Which very possibly going to swing state, the their steak or general that their votes don't have to come in till two days after the election day. So then they start being counted a few days after Election Day. So it's going to be tough. We're going to want to cover the election results as they come in, But we're used to a few hours of staying up late and crunching numbers. And this could be a few days trickling in, you know, like like the election of 18 0 force so dispiriting. It's so dispiriting. It leaves people with the sense If things were not fair, and I find that that erodes every institution that the fabric that binds us the sense of nationhood. All right, Tim, I know you like to report a not opine, but I'm gonna put you on the spot. I'm going to give you the state. And you tell me not who you want to win, obviously, but who you think will win Pennsylvania. I think Joe Biden is goingto win Pennsylvania and he's gonna win the presidential race by that one state. It's going to be just that margin and that pencil in it's going to be the The tipping point state, and I think Biden hangs on and wins by only a few electoral votes. Arizona I think that one goes Trump I do, too, and I'm really surprised it. It's it's It's been that close. I'm assuming you got Ohio for Trump Florida for trial for Trump, Florida for Trump. Yes. Ah, Wisconsin. Wisconsin for Biden. Michigan. Biden. Think Biden wins big there. Uh, no, I think so. I think it'll tighten but his lead. They're significantly bigger than it was before the Democrats picked up House seats. They won the governorship there in 2018. You've definitely seen a damn word shift in Wisconsin in the last three years. And those states Michigan kind of big, big 10 football states, which I think represents, Well the politics Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. I am fascinated. By the way, the races playing out there in the demographics of those states. It's very interesting how those states are going to turn and go back to the Harris Woolford. Race before 92 in 90, which Carville and Begala ran, and then they employed a lot of those tactics toe win for Clinton in 92. They were going after a very similar voter in a similar stage of their life. I think Trump is better it appealing to those voters than George H. W. Bush was. I don't think Biden is as good as Bill Clinton was, but it shapes up in much the same way. Yep, no And the again the ignoring of the working class white vote by the pollsters and by Hillary Clinton was the reason she lost four years ago. It's going to make for a very, very interesting year. Is there an October surprise that you forced? You know, I think, um, I think the Ah Hunter Biden stuff was the closest stuff we got on that. Anybody who was going to plant something would have printed it by now. You've already had millions of voters. Uh, it's too late, Tio to move people right now, and I think now play this back at me when it happened, But I think we're not going to get an October surprise. The idea do remember they did that to George W. Bush. They dropped from driving stuff in the news Thursday night before That's too late these days. You can't. Uh, you can't do it to many people vote early and vote by mail. I'll never forget I was I was on the Bush strikeforce and we were in Louisiana. Louisiana was now trending sufficiently Republican that Missouri was our big state. So they flew us to Missouri and we went to a Rams game were campaigning at a Rams game. In ST Louis, and we come out and we get that, they said there's been a there's been bad news. We go back to the hotel and there we all were just devastated because we thought this is going to cost him the election and I really don't think that that election would have been his close. As it was, we wouldn't have been discussing hanging chads had it not been for that dw. Ay, that was dropped at the last minute That happened in in Kennebunkport 25. Years earlier. Whatever What? 15 years earlier? Yes. Again. I think that was a different era is a very different era. It's a very different era. It's it's going to be. Ah, It's gonna be a very interesting race. Tim, Thanks for your perspective. Thanks for taking time. Please come back and visit with us. Anytime. Thank you there something wrong with no test required. You've definitely got it. We wish you well. And I have a good day. See? You got it..