Creedy Gupta News, Bloomberg News, Bloomberg Interactive Broker discussed on Bloomberg Businessweek


The market drivers report. With us in the Bloomberg interactive broker's studio, creedy Gupta, markets correspondent for Bloomberg. Follow her at creedy Gupta news and also sign up for her chart of the day. Kay Gupta one two 9 at Bloomberg dot net and check out her Twitter and Instagram at creedy Gupta news. Abigail Doolittle is the markets reporter for Bloomberg news. She's also with us and she is on Twitter at the Chartres check her out there. I want to start with you a little bit about what we're seeing in today's trade is Mike Wright. This is all about inflation speculation. You know, it could be. I would argue that some of this really is just coming from sentiment that came over the weekend You had some news here that Ukraine caught a sizable chunk of territory backup from Russia. Some good news there on the geopolitical front for anyone really kind of betting and hoping that this conflict is going to end. So I think that perhaps fed into a little bit of positive risk sentiment but I will also add in that same vein you had a little bit of dollar selling as well down to the tune of a 5 tenths of 1% on the Bloomberg dollar index. I don't think this is the collapse of the dollar or the end of the dollar. I think the question of the day earlier, I want to say on either MY on Bloomberg TV was is the dollar done. No, I don't think the dollar is done. I think it's just taking a breather. I hope not. It's the only currency I have. I hope it sticks in at least till I retire. Maybe I can throw you some lira or some Argentine peso. Some Bitcoin maybe. There are some Bitcoin in my piggy bank. But anyways, for the S&P 500, I would argue it's a little bit of a dollar story, as well as perhaps some fundamental drivers. You have a rail strike potentially happening on Friday, but not really a ton of conviction that this is actually going to go through that boosting some of the rail stocks, which would then feeds back into the Dow transports and the S&P 500, a similar story when it comes to chips, the idea here that President Biden might create more curbs on chips and then that impacts heavy weights like Nvidia or Intel and that perhaps driving the S&P 500 as well. Abigail, what are you watching today? I know you always have a close eye on the charts. Is there any sort of technical story to be told today or coming up soon with any of the levels that we're approaching? It's interesting to see this a little bit of a rebound rally and from a technical perspective, the near term uptrend so that June rally, it's actually holding to the sport day rally that we're seeing is holding that uptrend even though there was that 10% move down. So right now it suggests that we're probably going to go a bit higher, similar to the other times that we've seen these rebound rallies this year within the downtrend towards let's call it the 200 day moving average. So that's just a fancy way of saying that the near term buyers are supporting the market. I would agree with creedy that it's largely, if not only the dollar. You have dollar weakness. If you look to last week, the dollar was down for the first time in four weeks. Stocks were higher in the meantime, it was the inverse. You know, there's such an inverse relationship between those two asset classes. Today, also oil getting a bid. There's really just a risk rally today because of that weak dollar. Now what makes that interesting yields aren't necessarily plunging. So you have this weak dollar on its own. Similar to the stocks and so many other asset classes, it appears to be technical that Bloomberg dollar index going down to that 50 day moving average. So let's see whether or not that support holds. It has been holding this year. So Abigail, to the charts, tell us anything about whether or not that we're going to see another decline, like we saw. So are we going to see another bottom like we saw in June? I ask you the same questions all the time. You know what's going to happen when I they are the correct questions. The reason you're asking the same questions is because this is like groundhog's day, a million times over this year. It's just like the bear market of 2002 1003, where there was this down long slow decline down, but there's lots of counter trend rally. So that's what we're seeing now. In terms of this particular move technically, it's difficult to know whether or not it actually goes straight up to the 200 day moving average or if we range trade. But I would say that it's more likely that in the weeks to come, we see stocks go higher and then lower. How much encouragement can you take? I hope a lot because I've been telling people you can take encouragement from this. So don't let that color your answer. But this drop from the middle of August to last week or so early September. It's me what was notable about that is we didn't set another lower low. When you see a bear market rebound and then another sell off, people like you like to see whether or not those lows are keep getting lower. And in this case, we had a higher low. That's generally a good thing to see, right? I would agree. It's significant. It goes back to the point that I was making earlier about the idea that that June low uptrend it's holding. It's holding just like a glove. If you were to draw a trendline between the low and I'm actually going to on June 16th and then on July 13th and then on September 6th, it's perfect. So again, it suggests that we are going to see the near term buyers, medium term buyers, stay in control for a little while. Whether or not we make it back up to let's call it 4300 a little bit less than the 200 day moving average is to be seen. But it sounds like you think that might happen. I would probably be in that camp too. It's just not clear whether it's straight up or if we kind of wiggle there. All right, create a 30 seconds. We got CPI. We got PPI this week. We got retail sales. We at University of Michigan sentiment. What are you watching most? Oh, it's the CPI

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