Bally Doyle, William Mons, Dovan discussed on The Final Furlong Podcast
Still, once. And that's a thing with Aidan O'Brien horses. Ain't no Bryan horses can drift, but they'll still win because more often than not he's out to win. It's just that the market doesn't quite react in the way that you expect it to. You can also see it in a brine horses punted off the boards. And they finish down the field. It's like people are trying to guess what bally Doyle. They're trying to under it's that thing of you still can't be grabbed around the elbow at the racecourse, but that thing is someone trying to whisper the race course or this is the one. This is the one for aid. This is the one for you. It's the same with William mons. This is the one of woolly. Willy sources drift and win. Gordon sources drift and win. It's because the operations are so big that people are just trying to second guess. And he is very, very good. They've never seen an analyzing the market. He's very good at analyzing patterns in bedding. And I still feel sorry for him for that day that he was in the ring. And any power came down in the mayor's hurdle. Because he was right. You know, he was saying it's going to happen like he put it up on the site that morning. Do who was it? Let's try and get this right now at the top of my head. Was it. Dovan under so right for him, any power? Right, the four timer. And it's going to happen. The bookmakers are going to get cleaned out. They're going to get destroyed. And whatever reason any power over jumps whether it was a shadow, whatever, it's a freaking nature. And I remember speaking to a good friend of mine, who was working for patty power at a very high level at the time, and she was thinking she was in the corporate box with some of the VIPs, and she was thinking, oh my God, because it's race, game's over. She's gonna win. She's thinking. Oh my God. We're all gonna get sacked. This is going to be the end. Of the company. It's going to bankrupt the industry. And she falls. And that brilliant ad campaign, the patty power then do a year later, where it's the four by four. Exactly. Yeah, because ruby threw himself off with a chance of making history. So patty, take it up to 40 miles an hour there. All right, son. Cool. And as someone who's fallen off the horse, by the way, I can tell you. It ain't pleasant. And it can't be pleasant if it's at 40 miles an hour, particularly on the background. You don't do it. And the idea that you would is just absolutely farcical. But yeah, the analysis that you get from someone like Dave and that's why I watch racing TV. He reached very, very well. And I think that it's very important for pontos out there. To understand that in today, in 2021, when a price is contracting, it does not mean that there is huge money on the horse. Well said. And pontiff must get their head around this, right? Because the bookmakers are now making their own markets. And what they're doing is they're racing as fast as they can to the lowest price possible. So their job is if this favorite, for instance, is going to win, I got to be the shortest price I possibly can on it. So you see horses that will contract from 5 to two and do 11 to 8 and that type of thing in a jiffy, especially the night before and Ponte's most realized that it is very, very small money comparatively speaking for that. And it is usually coming from the 20 pound punter because the monkey punter and the four figure pointer can't get on now until the off. So it's not our money, right? It's small money. And then you have lots going on that horse has been backed and you'd have to say that I've just take a poll, it'll drift tomorrow. What do you mean it will drift tomorrow? They're only shortening it because they've seen maybe 15 individual bets of 40 quid each and they're not taking a chance. And the majority of horses in the 30 minutes before the off will drift back out to the price that they were the night before. Does that make sense? As the original chalked up price starts to reestablish itself. And pointers are getting soaked in, especially back in 5s at false prices and they're falling fresh. But don't forget, like petty power would pretend that the punters pal. And it's all arm around the shoulder stuff as we're enjoying the crack. Oh yeah. But at the end of the day, like his job is to if he's going to lose lose at the shortest price possible. And all of the traders will be watching what the other prices are across all of their competitors. And there's no one to stay at 5 to two if all of their competitors are 11 to 8. Why would you lay a bed at 5 to two? You don't have to, because they'll still give you their money at 11 to 8, such as tighten up. And people are getting hoodwinked into believing that it's an old school gamble. Sweet lord, it's come in a point and a half. It's come in two points. We better have my best. And it takes experience to go, I tell you what the best thing you could do is hold on for ten minutes before the off. Because that's when the actual price will start to establish itself..