FED, Twenty Three Months, Six Months discussed on Bloomberg Markets


Start of that now is it going to be market moving i mean we're talking the may meeting but what investors and analysts are gonna be doing is trying to extrapolate do they go in june and does the summary of economic projections in the june meeting set that up okay i wanna make sure i really understand this and the words you're saying if the federal reserve hikes four times this year we will be looking at an inverted yield curve in short order by your end five here at if you do the math of the eighty basis points between the fed funds rate in the two year you put that on two and a half which is what the fed funds rate will be by year end they do for rate hikes for the year that gets you three thirty so does that mean that we head into recession next year typically going back over the last seven recessions it has been a forewarning of a forthcoming recession usually there's a window in mid two thousands it was twenty three months before the recession happened market peak before that but in the mid nineteen ninety s it was about six months so it's not a precise measurement but we would look at it as an opportunity to look to derail assets and think about risk management more so in the end of this year and into next year so panic now and avoid the rush no because our base case is the fed takes one off one off the table and that the fed is trying to communicate to the market that inflation going above their target is okay this is a relatively new phenomenon in terms of symmetry language that's been put into their communication so you know risk management is always a part of our process it's it's critical but as we look into the end of the year you know we we see if the fed does continue to raise rates to that fourth time.

Coming up next