England, Bank Of England, UK discussed on Best of Bloomberg Daybreak: Middle East
It is going to be more significant than the Bank of England. And it just means Significant number of people become unemployed, but it takes time for them to get back into the workforce Access a significant drag on the recovery. You've seen all the previous recessions in the UK when unemployment goes high. It's fine for the economy to recover, and that's why we think the recovery will be slow is in the bank thinks Yeah, And this, of course, is the worry across Europe isn't it of a jobless recovery where we do also get some data in the coming days about Claimant count about jobless claims. Change the Isle O unemployment numbers again. The bank venting in England expecting so 7/2 percent unemployment that is eye waters, like three million people out of Work. But is that also a quite optimistic? I've seen estimates for hire for the end of this year? Yeah, absolutely. For the data will get or next week will be four second quarter and again GDP data. It's pretty backward looking because the furlough schemes in place what we're not seeing in the unemployment data, at least of these big rises. Where we're expecting the rising bank. England's expecting arrives to its happen when Berlingske men's on that in October, so is being rammed down at the moment from In August, not favorites. It's being run down the medical finished so Pete comes at the end of the year. My wingman have 7.5% then we have 8.5 sentence. This works kind of the O B R U Case Watch, though, has blood and 00.9% which is really significantly higher than both our forecast in the Bank of England. I don't see, I think Are you at least that the risk the unemployment rate going higher than we expect the fall great unemployment not going is high, So this definitely hits big downside risks to the jobs market and therefore the recovery. Surely, though the key to all of this will be you know, the ever present worry around a second wave of the Corona virus and particularly in wind term, you know, talk of schools reopening and the challenges that that is going to place on on the health situation for the UK Yeah, absolutely. And I think In many ways for the economy. It's not just where the second wave happened is the risk of the second wave to that affects people's decisions on how they spend money. And the big reasons beyond what I mentioned about Children market the other degrees and think that recovery why blag is that consumers are going to be cautious there. Not only are they worried about their income, but also worried about their health. That means the less likely to go out and spend actually go out and do what we call Social consumption's two restaurants in the pub. All those things means the second way. Even the risk of a second wave. I should say, actually ahead with integration, of course in the second wave doesn't actually happened, and of course, that recovery of a completely blown off course. On the severity of the second wave, and how the government reacts. You could be looking at a double dip recession in the UK site. It is an enormous risk. Of course, Dan I can't leave it there. I have to have a positive note after all of this doom and gloom. Are we underestimating the UK economy? I mean, we're still G seven. We punch above our weight as we like to say, Don't we inventive and so on. Is there a glimmer of optimism anywhere? I don't think there are a lot of downside risks out there. But there were some upside risk, too, and I'll leave you with this one. On it. But in the aftermath of the Brexit vote, a lot of people underestimate the economy. Everyone thought there was a passage. RCMP questions Michael that was going to be a recession, the economy significantly outperformed. He calls consumers were happy that they have in their pockets and run down their savings. Now we know that evening rates have gone up significantly across the globe because of the lock down and it could just be that the lock down these I will do so comfortable about going out and spending money..