Randolph, Minnesota, Adam Carter discussed on Paul and Jordana

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Randolph and the family van afternoon everybody hopefully you get a chance without proper social distancing enjoy this up Viewtiful afternoon good conversations in the first hour on social distance scene in the state of Minnesota I Dan it's a good work battle between Adam Carter and Susie Jones you're right on the radar and up all did we put that out there yet we will shortly we well we need to get that out there then a great conversation with Pete Najarian we'll have some fun with overrated underrated properly rated by the hour we'll carry governor walls what he has to say the plan is today were to Kerry governor walls his comments break away and then we go back to questions then we'll go back to governor walls and then one of our favorites major Kerr at two thirty five but when I bring in a professor I have epidemiology at Stanford University Dr Steven Goodman is kind enough to join us because we're all just so fascinating fixated on these numbers right on Adam just pointed out the number the fifth tally number has jumped in Minnesota to ten we have the numbers yesterday from doctor Fauci and we get hung up in particular for all the valid reasons on who has called a nineteen right now and what does that mean and Dr Steve Goodman has some interesting points in that sticky thanks so much he is on the centerpoint energy home services hotline Sir let's just talk about the numbers and what how we should process these numbers as everyday citizens and and how do you think we should look at them differently thanks for having me on and of course that's a great question because everybody's looking at those numbers and worrying wearing both for themselves and for their communities the the first thing I'll say is that the number of reported cases is really quite misleading and that the the really funny number because it does it mislead them in two ways first of all it's it's all tied up with the amount of testing so we already know that there are many many more cases out there that it section I don't want to date clinical cases to people who are affected who could be spreading it then are tested positive probably at this moment ten to twenty times as many and I can I can step you through our I would say that because I was just stop you right there because I think people would like to know because at it that is startling how how do you get to the numbers we have really should be multiplied by twenty times right so first of all I want to say before I tell you how to get there sure is that that that that doesn't necessarily that should naturally worried people are although it explains why we're doing what we're doing now and why you're doing what you're doing yeah in terms of social distancing and and and Minnesota to be congratulated starting that at a at a point before some other state debt and and I think they are paying the price so what every number you see in terms of the case today is is somebody who was symptomatic as a result of infection one to two weeks ago do you think time lagged result so during the the one of the reasons that you're only paying a portion is that your only during that time from that infection the cases have multiplied since then and it depends of course on how quickly they have been accumulated and then in the early part of this epidemic in many places that hadn't taken local bit the thing the the cases and this was the case in New York were doubling every three days so by the time you were reporting testing numbers that was two or three doubling times ten the people were first enacted the other reason why the number of positive path greatly understate the numbers and this depends on exactly the criteria that are being used in Minnesota for testing and yeah over in California because of both the both of lack of paths and because of the lack of personal protection equipment every character out that have that equipment and they want to reserve that for the people in the hospital so we're reserving our testing for people are pretty symptomatic or have significant symptoms at all but that number is only about one fifth of the total that is if you're infected your chance of getting symptoms significant enough to merit testing are only about one in four one five so automatically again that's another five fold difference between the number infected versus the number who are actually being tested and reported so depending on the criteria being used for testing in Minnesota you might be testing a lot of people who have very minimal symptoms or you might be tapping mainly those people who show their numbers themselves but in any case those are just a fraction of the total infected so in that way Sir if I just ask a question in some ways Sir no matter what we're never gonna come close to knowing exactly how many people have called in nineteen you will probably only know in retrospect when we do math antibody screening of people to find out who was infected not who is infected now what we'll know that war if the path come online and we are able to do those soon on a mass level on a population level we'll begin to know but what's more important I just want to point out there are some numbers that you should be focusing on and those of the hospitalization because the people get sick enough because of it to be hospitalized and then they are tapped it for sure that's independent of testing right now you have ninety two it looks like I'm looking on the Minnesota website and and that's great it's not a huge number but you need to look dated day how quickly that increase that is the movies only solid number as long as your hospital they're not turning white people but they're not over well gonna be presumably they're not close to it so that's a very important number and it would be great if your department of health we did that in a graph just like its reporting number of positive results and then people would be the real rate of increase then and and that's what you want to keep hello you know around ten percent if it starts going up to twenty thirty percent then you're getting ten percent of the doubling every seven days of five percent would be a doubling like every twelve days so that good numbers you want to keep the focus on and be great different states would report those consistently and they're not even California not reporting so that's that's the problem it's very hard to keep track of things New York City is reporting it C. goodness what this professor of epidemiology at Stanford University give us a really interesting look at some of the numbers and how we should be judging them and what is a better way to quantify this long stay with your last point there so when you talk about well New York is doing this Minnesota in California are not we have this interesting dichotomy now of what is the federal role versus we have states you know they are they're allowed to do certain things differently but then they're also relying on the federal government do you think we should have a specific federal guidelines on how a re we are reporting some of these numbers or are you still not happy with with the states are doing it but accepting all of the differences that we see but I think there are certainly room for state differences and and in the kind of restrictions that they impose the weather data ready to put in lockdown or whatever that I do think probably should be on a state by state basis although erring on the side of extreme conservatism but the reporting requirements that could easily be federalized because I think most states are not understanding how critical the hospitalization and also I see you numbers are again your reporting those but I don't see that in a graph so I don't know you might have to check in every day that you get the the night your report them consistently and and show that the rate of increase in yep I do think there should be a federal guideline because it's extremely inconsistent and it's very hard to know for states to really know where they are that's the perfect kind of thing and a lot of states have the data they're just not showing it so I I I would say yes that should be a federal guidance coming from the BBC it would be really nice the president with the guidance of doctor about you know others are extended the the guidelines through today through April thirtieth in looking at how you're explaining the numbers what we have what we need to look at the numbers we should have more of how should we determine when we're at a point whether it's at the federal level or the state level where more people can start to assimilate back to their everyday lives through jobs through businesses how do we get there again a fantastic question the first thing we're going to one of the is the these curves and bending down and then we are we're gonna want to get better information on who's truly vulnerable and and see if we can develop sort of more targeted a smarter policies about exactly which restrictions to relax not an all or nothing thanks there may be will allow certain people obviously people have infected their immune the navy will will allow gatherings of only a certain size but what I'd really interesting statistic that comes out of New York and they just start reporting it on Saturday is that ninety eight percent of deaths are in people with pre existing conditions at all ages though it there's been a big focus on you know over sixty five is a big risk group no if you are healthy over sixty five it looks like the risk of dying from that is relatively low although we still don't have the exact numbers much lower if you if you don't have the existing conditions that you do and family you're not immune if you're young the this extends all the way down to the folks in their twenties and thirties with existing conditions much higher than without so these are the kinds of numbers that gonna are going to inform policies going forward first we need to see these curbs bending down and then we have to learn and we're learning more every single day about exactly who is the greatest threat and then figure out how best to protect them and ourselves Steve I really enjoyed this conversation I gotta jump in here and take a break thank you so much for coming on I can assure you as this continues to go because of what you've laid out we're gonna reach out to you can so stay healthy thanks again for coming up thank you Steve good professor of epidemiology Stanford University really really do a different approach to the numbers that we have what is a fair reflection and what we should look at in the present and moving forward the president made this decision yesterday in a press conference that was that was classic Trumpian on what he was saying at times it was great deference to doctors but other times let me just be blunt as blunt could be the president was lying again about what he said I'm not gonna spend an inordinate lot of time talking about the president and the facts because if you're credible you know the president facts are optional but I want to talk about that and I want you to chime in through a text or a phone call and I keep getting as well you only watch part no I watched all of Sean Hannity I watch the briefing on Friday and I watch the briefing on Sunday so one cherry picking is taking place about what the president said I'm not doing it I'm not relying on the times the post CNN or Dan cook I sought with my own eyes and ears and the president's line about two points where is our balance and how much time we should spend on that compared to what's going on because for me it's not as important as cold in nineteen oh one the president of the United States in a pandemic as usual cannot be trusted and we act like it's no big deal I think that's absurd I chime in six five one nine eight nine ninety two six Chad Hartman hi it's Jamie progresses employee of the month to month in a row leave a message at the paging me it's me Jamie do not forget to buy lentils what lentil soup you're making for dinner will be sorely lacking by the way Mrs Calloway says thanks for helping her bundle home and auto she appreciates the interstate means even though you kept using the word after opposing correctly but the main thing is do not forget to buy was it something I propose the lentil soup sorry I'll call you back the rest of casualty insurance company affiliates discounts not available in all states or situations bad.

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