U.S., Dubai, Pboc discussed on BTV Simulcast


This is Bloomberg J bag Middle East Your top stories this morning The CSO 300 jumps Chinese markets reopened following the lunar new year holiday Meanwhile the PBOC fixes that you want and we couldn't expect it level The non farm jobs report knocks it out of the park Now investors look to Thursday's U.S. CPI reading which is expected to come in at 7.3% That's the largest year on year since 1982 After a 7 week oil rally Saudi Aramco raises prices to Asia the U.S. and to Europe Meanwhile sources are telling us that the energy giant has we started discussions on a new shared sale Of course Johnson's removal from offices now being called inevitable I have prominent member of his own party Meanwhile this Sunday time says the UK prime minister is preparing for a confidence vote as soon as this week It's gotten a 9 a.m. across cameras I'm using command Idina Dubai And I'm manner scanning back in Dubai Glad to be back Welcome back Okay Four plane rides one terrain ride and a very sore back You're gonna share some of those air miles Oh well I've shared the Airbus Let's have a look at the equity market They've managed to turn it around from red into green And the question is was there any capitulation No say Bank of America inflows for 20 out of the 23 days so far this year even though U.S. real years at the long long end the 30 year end turned positive still the NASDAQ was up 1.7% last week We moved from the end of a pandemic the end of stimulus to the end of a bull market in tech and I can tell you when it comes to tech use of last week what you saw in these markets was the Amazon supplanted some of the other mega deliverers in terms of the earnings beat Amazon constitutes 40% of the overall S&P 500 beats so far in the early season Yeah and the hangover from the U.S. jobs report is clear to be seen across some of these market metrics on the bond board here U.S. tens of one 70 one 90 12 the bear is in the treasury markets are on the roll You have yields across the curve at 2022 highs We have options this week ten to 20 year treasury that that's really gonna test investor appetite for years of the sustainability of current levels Deutsche Bank arguing that it's just remarkable how little additional tightening has been priced in for next year The velocity of the rise in two year yields starting to look like a climb in 2018 GTP go for our clients The two year in Europe not just in Germany I mean for Germany it was the highest level since 2015 that gives you a bit of a sense of the drama surrounding this move and why investors are still on edge This Monday morning Look the consequence of not just the ECB the fed and the Bank of England so critically close to going for 50 basis points reignites that 50 basis point hike from the fed And what would that do to the dollar Let me just show you 5 days on the dollar index By the way kitchen is joining me in just over an hour from stock Jenny says it's going to be a messy year in the dollar use if we will end up weaker And that's what happenings in a tightening cycle But again the CPI print this week will be critically important for the next maneuver of the dollar not move the next maneuver of the dollar And that's probably to the upside on a fiery 1982 high print for the dollar It should in theory roll over in the 6 months after the first hike But we are in an unprecedented geopolitical and COVID time For the moment the dollars up in the day but don't as you can see over the past 5 days Yeah but despite that relative strength in the bigger picture the commodity rally hasn't really stopped And I think of what we're seeing in energy 7 consecutive weeks of gains I mean this is the 8th week basically the Monday morning where I walk in and have brenta has reached a new high currently on 93 48 or at least the highest level since about 2014 Veto and saying that we're up about 20% this year but we could get another boost by China potentially replenishing its inventories and financial investors increasing their long positions The Saudis are increasing their prices for Asia this chart tells the story in terms of what is happening with those long positions The calls for a $150 oil for $200 oil those have quadrupled and that extra context on the terminal for all of our audience to check out Yeah To the moon I'm talking to my oil of course not Tesla Let's check in on those equity markets And global markets would you like to see in Singapore The moon one place you haven't been in the last week manner Yeah we are seeing China coming back after that very long holiday playing catch up It was up by some 2.4% still on track though for its best return after a lunar new year break since 2019 Elsewhere though you can see a little bit of a pause in the rally I remember we had the best week for Asian equities in 5 months last week and seeing specific sell down coming through in these tech players in Hong Kong Alibaba under pressure it's been down by almost 5% There was about a billion eightys added to the U.S. market and there's a lot of speculation that that could suggest SoftBank's potential to sell its shares Also watching this bond sell off and that's being exacerbated in the Australian market too the ten year there 1.99 just getting very close to that 2% level Let's put the board and have a look at how China has returned after the lunar new year break And for the second time since hosting the Olympics the last time when they hosted the Olympics in 2008 were coming out of the global financial crisis They had been a lot of stimulus added to the market making it easier for investors to get in and for companies to list And that certainly helped You can see a 6 fold increase in Hong Kong and China markets from 2008 when we last had the Olympics in Beijing to now That is an increase of $10 trillion in value in these markets Okay Jill thank you very much Juliet started that in Singapore To the ECB the executive class not says he expects an interest rate increases early as the fourth quarter comes as the Central Bank last week made a hawkish pivot but the president Christine Lagarde no longer excluding a hike this year for more let's get to our chief Asia economics correspondent and the current and a pivot from the guard at the ECB.

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