Georgia, President Trump, Brian Kemp discussed on The Erick Erickson Show
And you know I talked to plenty of black voters who are Democrats and they told me that. It's very very hard for a Republican to get black voters. I vote for them the first time. But once you're elected it's very easy to get black voters to either vote for the second time or just not vote for for the Democrat just not vote. In the governor's race. They may not be willing to vote Republican but they may be willing to not vote in that race and that gives them an edge as well. Did you know that Mike Huckabee in Arkansas. Got Sixty percent of the black vote when he ran his second term. Mike Huckabee Yeah that Mike Huckabee sixty percent of the white voters He got ten percent his first go round sixty percent percent the second time pretty impressive. But here's the other impressive number among Hispanic voters Georgia Brian. Kemp got thirty nine in point seven percent of the Hispanic vote when he ran for office. It's not a large number of people. Keep that in mind but it is the fastest growing demographic in the state of Georgia Borja. He got thirty nine point seven percent in this poll. He's got a forty four point. Four percent approval rating gene among Hispanic voters. Do you know he hasn't made that Senate appointment yet and you know my friend Jason of Dr Day. He has put his hand in the rain when he is on the Board of Education and polling county highly plugged into the Hispanic community in Georgia. And I. I still think he'd be great. I'm biased because he's a friend of mine I think I've been saying in for a while. The fastest growing demographic and Georgia's Hispanic voters and they are showing a propensity to vote for the Republicans. We should try to figure out a way to lock them in. I think you give them the the first Hispanic Non Cuban Hispanic Senator You give them a huge win. I should say for yeah I given Versus Non Cuban Hispanic senator in the first senator from Puerto Rico. Puerto Rican I They I think it's a no brainer It would give a diverse pick. He's a solid Republican. He solidly pro-life he's he's solidly on on the President's economic agenda he it makes sense there in this polling should buttress that to some degree. Not on the governor's GonNa pick. I have no inside information on a refuse to talk about it because I'm sure they're overwhelmed by all sorts of people but you got you got thirty nine point seven percent of the Hispanic vote in two thousand eighteen. You're at forty four. Four point four percent approval rating among Hispanic voters in Georgia. It just seems to me that you do what you can to boost your popularity among Hispanic voters. You do not have to sell out your agenda the Bri the governor has gotten to forty four point four percent approval among Hispanic voters without compromising his agenda. He could pull this off so during commercial break. I went to the jury far website. Welcome Erick Erickson here. If you're just tuning in I'm I'm in a home studio and We are without power today We we are not a transformer blew this morning when everyone got up to turn the heat on on at the same time around six thirty this morning and started flicker was gone by by eight o'clock this morning. They say it will be back on by ten thirty thankfully but so I went on the Georgia power website. They they have a map of allergies. There are outages right now. All over the state of Georgia is Savannah Brunswick Columbus America's Augusta Clayton to Coa Gainesville Greensboro. Four door brome Lots of people with flower power our flickering this morning from power lines down because of the rain and the trees It just oh well we'll deal with it. We'll be back on a little while Now let's get into the president of Poland in the agency just union. Brian Kemp Great polling Brian Kemp in the AJC. Paul this is a poll that undercounts supporters of the president. This is a poll of registered voters. And it showed that the the president only got forty one percent the people who have the support of the people participate in the poll but the president got fifty percent in Georgia. So you can see that. There's a big shift in this polling and that actually gives advantages to Republican so Brian Kemp in this poll of people were only forty. One percent voted for the president. He's got a fifty four percent approval rating which means he's probably gotTA oughta sixty percent approval rating in reality which is pretty significant. There is not good news for the president here but again and again The president this polling undercounts the president's performance. And you gotTa keep that in mind. Let me just give you the top line numbers for The AJC says that Joe Biden would beat Donald Trump fifty one to forty three Fueled by solid support for women and independence Racist racists between any of the other Democratic candidates would be very tight and again you got to keep in mind. This is a registered voter poll fifty four percent registered. Voters disapprove disapprove of the president's record a forty four percent approved now. Let's shift this a little bit to what is probably likely voters. Let's decrease the fifty fifty four by four percentage points and you get to fifty percent. Let's increase the approval rating by four by four percent. In you you get four. Eight percents of fifty forty eight disapprove approve within the margin of error. So it's roughly tied and I think you can do that now. Here's here's the other interesting one and this is why I think we where we can see the law and the polling as it relates fifty percent of Georgians approve approve of David Produce job performance. Only about a third say they support him. Next year's election forty one percent says their choice depends on who the nominee is. When you see that number you can tell? There's a deep flaw in the polling. Fifty percents of Georgians didn't approve of David Produce job performance but only a third sydell supporting next year. I there's A. There's a clear problem there in that polling Likewise if you take fifty percent ad. Four percentage points to fifty percent among likely voters I think that will you vote for him or not. E relates to the president's polling in this that only forty one percent of the people who participate in the bowl voted for the president but in reality fifty percent of the people. People in Georgia voted for the president. I think there are some flaws in the polling and those four actually are good news for the Republicans not for the Democrats. I'm coming oncoming incoming oncoming. I'm trading emails. Actually with the national pollster who saw me tweeting out some of the remarks on on this polling in he he just e mail bag limit Leonard Ridgewood he said actually bad sample from the AJC very good news for the Republicans in Georgia AJC oversample old people with graduate degrees more than the population exists in Georgia. Also undercounted trump voters Therefore add several percentage points up for all of them period period period. My brain works sometimes then he says this as something that was actually tweeting Ezekiel came in. Remember how heartbeat was going to kill. Brian Kemp never trust pundits. You know it's right remember. Ah so much of the the media coverage last year earlier this year was about how the fetal heartbeat legislation was going to devastate eight Republicans in Georgia he was going to wipe them out. It was GonNa make twenty twenty competitive the GOP was going to go down. The legislature is going to go to the Democrats. The Democrats were positively Tilly giddy about it. Brian Kemp has majority support of women. And now a pollster is telling me is that the statistically oversample people with graduate degrees in Georgia and still finds the governor doing well with that group and still finds a majority sport with women pretty impressive data there and consider again David. Purdue David Purdue is at fifty percent in a poll that finds the president-elect got forty one percent support in two thousand sixteen which we know isn't true your baseline there has has got to be adjusted in that regard. And he's doing well oh by the way. HBO is filming a new series in making There was a big story of the Making Telegraph yesterday yesterday. Held downtown and make it on Second Street. The all the facades of the of the shops have been changed to reflect this. Hbo Series. They're filming this week down there. It's some sort of gothic horror. Show that's coming. HBO They've got it all up and running now and they're filming. I thought there was going to be a boycott. No there's there's not going to be a boycott this is good news for the Republicans this AJC particularly because of a skewed sample well according to hang on a second one second I this is the one professional me but but a another pollster has just emailed me who you guys would. I know. He's done polling for a lot of prominent Republicans around the country They say okay so this is hey. This culture has done polling in Georgia and is basically sade a garbage poll. He's Criticizing University of Georgia's polling And and says garbage poll in large part because of the oversampling of categories of voters including graduate. So you got two major prominent pollsters jurors You would know both names are on. TV All the time and they're both saying garbage poll because of the sample really good use for the GOP based on what they're pulling out of these sample so there you have it wouldn't wouldn't play. You know I wonder. I don't WanNA nurse conspiracy theories on polling but I I really. Here's the thing thing. The University of Georgia started doing more polling because other colleges are doing polling every every college does polls Emerson College. It's just polls monmouth university does polls Quinnipiac does bowls Quinnipiac. Actually is the the trend. Setter could've been doing them for years and they have a track record. They have a model We can measure them up. They've got a history of of accuracy. MONMOUTH is increasingly that way but a lot of these other universities that are stepping up and doing polling. They're doing him. Because other universities -versities colleges are doing bowling and they want their name out there so the J. C. J. Partner for poll. Uga Get some headlines there and and good for you and and good good for the AJC. That doesn't mean that it's good bowling though and I don't know. UGA has the best track record thus far in the poll. So now that being said let's move to impeachment now yes Syria. Let's move to impeachment. Bill Taylor is going to testify this morning. And I'm not going to engage in disparaging Bill Taylor. Bill Taylor is a veteran. Who has loyally served this country? You will hear a lot of people on TV..