Cardinals, Dodgers, Reds discussed on Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
Codified the farm system and had so many affiliates formal or informal and just had control of hundreds and hundreds of players and would either promote them from within or use them to acquire other more established players. So the 38 39 cardinals had 60 and 14 future all stars and then the 34 and 37 cardinals had 13 as did the 37 and 38 Yankees and it's all of those teams from that period of time. And Ryan continues those systems we're stacked. So for example, the 1938 cardinals system, these players, they had Elmer riddle, Johnny hopp Ken raffensperger, Marty Marion max lenier Oscar Judd walker Cooper, Emil verban, Harry brashen, lupita, mort Cooper, Murray Dixon, red munger, Nick etten, whitey kurowski, Johnny sane, and Ryan included comps of more modern players for those old timey players just to give a sense of how much war one might expect from those guys and it's a lot, so he comped to basically having a rotation of Bumgarner sales, Strasburg, Wainwright, and Kane with anibal Sanchez and Jeff simard and company waiting in the wings with a Hall of Famer in a couple of very good players in the infield. So that's how much the late 30s cardinals were controlling. But since 1990, so more modern times, the brewers 6 is pretty competitive so the 2005 Dodgers had 8 in their system. The 2007 and 2010 reds also had 8 future all stars in their system. And then with 7, we have the 99 Blue Jays, the 2006 Dodgers, the 2008 reds, the 2011 Diamondbacks and the 2014 and 15 cubs. And I will include this post in the full list if anyone wants to check that out. So for example, the 2005 Dodgers had Carlos Santana, Chad billingsley, Hong chio, Joel Henry, Jonathan Braxton, Kenley Janssen, Matt Kemp, and Russell Martin all in their system at the same time 2007, reds had Devin messer occo, J Bruce Joey Votto, Johnny cueto, Josh Hamilton, Justin Turner, Todd Frazier, and Zack cozart. That's a lot. The most recent team with 6 is the 2017 braves, and they still have a chance at more. So they're 6 Austin Riley max freed Mike soroka, who is now Michael siroka. I read Ozzy albie's Ronald Acuna and William Contreras and they're still players with all star potential who could be added to the list Ian Anderson Kyle Wright, Joey manasses our man in AJ minter. So this kind of got me curious about what the average expectation should be because these are the high points when your system is super stacked with future all stars, but that could lead to unreasonable expectations, right? And I think at this time of year, when we're looking at prospect rankings and farm rankings, it's good to keep some sense of perspective here. You don't want to be like bob nightingale just taking a picture of the bigger base and not knowing how much bigger the base is than the smaller base, right? So you want to sense of the baseline. The base. Yeah, baseline. We should start measuring things in bigger bases. Like we do without two days, you know, it's like it should be its own unit of measure. Exactly. So the All-Star Game hasn't been around forever, obviously, but since 1945 or if we go 1945 to 2010, since more recent years may not have had a chance to have all their all stars hit yet, it's 2.6 future all stars is the average number of all stars to be playing in a team system in any given year. So 2.6 all stars somewhere lurking in your system. And that could be anywhere in affiliated ball. It could be you down to your Dominican summer league teams, your rookie league teams, these numbers may change. Now that there are fewer minor league teams and affiliates, perhaps, although, I guess they're just as many all stars as ever, if not more. So 2.6, that's sort of your baseline for how many all stars the average system in any given year will produce at some point in the future. And no guarantee that they'll be all stars for you and your organization just at any point in their career, there is actually an interesting study Bill James published this week where he found that historically exactly 50% of team value has come from players who had never played before for any previous major league team and 50% from players who had played for some previous team. So it's 50 50 for players as well throughout major league history, the average player has had 50% of his career value while playing for his first team and 50% while playing for some other team. So to say that your system might produce two all stars, well, they may not be all stars until after they go somewhere else. So from 1961 to 2010, so that's since the beginning of expansion, 2.45 is the average from 1998 to 2010. The 30 team era, it's 2.36. So more recently, it's really about 2.4 all stars. So it's not a lot, I guess, if we all dream on you look at your systems top ten and you think, oh, this guy's got an all star ceiling and that guy's got an all star ceiling. You know, it varies. I'm sure based on how highly your system is ranked. But on the whole, the average system, you're only going to get about two and a half all stars out of that system in the entirety of their careers. So I think you kind of have to keep your expectations in check a little bit about the amount of high ceiling talent that is going to come out of that system at any point. It's hard to develop players. Yeah, it turns out that baseball is hard, Ben. Yeah, and I also asked him to look at this another way, so not just with all stars, but number of future major leaguers, period, and then number of long-lasting major leaguers, so he did two minimums. He did like 600 plus plate appearances or batters faced, and 3000 plus played appearances or batteries faced. And the numbers, you know, they get pretty small, so he did this on a league wide level, year by year going back almost a century, and then he did it per team average. So if we look at like 2008, I guess, was the peak, at least the recent peak of the number of players in minor league systems in affiliated ball. It was like 7000 players were in affiliated ball in 2008. And of those 7000 in 2008, barring, I guess anyone who still hasn't shown up, although that would be tough at this point. Yeah. The number of future major leaguers is 950, which is, you know, a lot of future major leaguers, but that's out of 7000. So that's like 13.6% of all the players in affiliated ball will be big leaguers at some point, which matches up exactly with a stat that I had in the MVP machine about that too. So again, most players, they're not going to make it, which is probably not a huge surprise to anyone and including those players, but 13.6%. That's roughly the percentage that will be big leaguers of any kind. And then if you limit it to big leaguers who get 600 plate appearances or batters faced, then in 2008, you're down to 387. So that's about 5.5%. So about 5.5 will have even a season's worth essentially of playing time. And then if you want 3000 plus plate appearance or batters faced careers, then we're down to 86 guys that year and that as a percentage is about 1.2%. So if you're talking about players who will actually become established long tenured big leakers, it's really like 1% of all the players in affiliated ball. So if you're doing that on a per team per system basis, then the 9 50 for all 30 teams that goes down to about 31.7. So in any given team system in any given year, you're looking at roughly 31 32 future big leaguers for any team, not just for your organization, but any, and then about 13 will last for a season or so in the majors. And then about three two to three maybe will become long-lasting big leaguers, which tracks roughly with the number of future all stars. So you're at about 30 future big leaguers, maybe a little more than that, and then maybe like a dozen players who will last for a season or so in the majors. And then really, it's like two to three players will have long careers in the big leagues or become all stars.