Campo Flores Ari, National Hurricane Center, Pats discussed on WSJ What's News
With hurricane Florence on a path toward the east coast. Many are watching the latest forecast maps to track the storm, but that can prove a bit confusing for those trying to make sense of the National Hurricane center's forecast maps for the first time joining us now via Skype from Miami with some chips is Wall Street Journal, reporter, Arjan, Campo Flores Ari on first. Let's talk about how much technology has changed in tracking hurricanes and how it impacts the picture. So to speak of what we're actually looking at when we take a look at these maps. Sure. So there have been significant improvements in the technology that's available to forecasters as they prepare these forecasts. The satellites that they're using are much more sophisticated more powerful, more precise, some of the devices that they use. The actually dispatch into storms from aircraft are also more sophisticated the rock computing power that they use to run models. His his much more powerful than it was decades ago. So all of that has allowed forecasters to become steadily more precise in how they they, they forecast, for instance, the path of a hurricane. So what we see when we look at the the so-called forecast cone, which is that map, it shows a steadily widening sort of blob that seeks to capture the potential path of a storm that has steadily narrowed over the years. And so that obviously has significant impacts for folks who are in the cones in terms of the decisions that they make us to whether or not they should back. You wait or stamp place or what measures they should take when it comes to the cone. You also point out that a lot of people mistake it for the entire area that'll be impacted by the storm. And that's not actually what it's showing us. Can you explain a little bit more about what the cone on the forecast map is showing us? Yeah, sure. So the way that they derive the cone is it's basically. Accession of circles and those circles have varying radii and the way that they they calculated is they're trying to predict where the center of a storm will pass and they, they use those models that are predicting the pats combined with the records the previous years of of errors in forecasting to derive a particular radius for a circle. And so that's how they're calculating it and they'd they make the radio so that there is a two-thirds probability that the center of the storm will actually pass through the cone. But obviously that means that there is a one in three chance that the storm will not pass within the gone. We'll actually be outside of it. And so that's what people need to keep in mind that this is a, this is all about likelihood and probability sort of running models, but the affected areas can be far out. Side of the cone. You look in Ari on something else you point out is this so called spaghetti plot without getting too technical..