Nigeria, Journey Economic Summit Group, Saito discussed on Lagos Covid-19 Updates
We'll be looking at covered. Nineteen oil price and the Nigerian economy and to go along in discussion with me and help make sense of the direction in which we're going We have Wilson is senior economist with the Curia Economic Summit. Welcome thank you. It's a blizzard. Now please introduce yourself Mr Tillis a little bit more about yourself. My knees will in remember. An economist currently work as an economist with Journey Economic Summit Group where I get to do research on. Also engage in policy advocates. So it's not just about researching them but it goes about seeing how we can engage government to implement the recommended Sean. Style we put forward. And that's basically what I did. A Soviet this global pandemic has defined twenty twenty and Nigeria is no exception. What is your opinion on? Its impact on the economy so far. So it's unfortunate that the world is going through this right now grew You know the Coronado virus situation. He's not being funny. Series of Google Shutdown Donald factories. Shut Down Post We've also had an increasing number of cases you know from on China moving over to the United States equally on Europe in general even here in Africa across all different continent. So it's not been an easy one so the number of dead cases out of also increased as well but on the economic side on coming back home here in Nigeria. We've seen how festival so they are different of several transmission mechanism. So do one of them is the price channel where we've seen how demand for could drop significantly physically driven by low low industrial activities. Even people aren't even going out so they lure demand for transport services Which means that based on for fuel? So we've seen cases where KUDA advice features the beat features even wins into a negative so people were actively paying to sell the crude Brains We've seen the drug prices to below twenty dollars per barrel. So that's one key. Effect on also worrisome. I made you couldn't even point. So it's crude because his Such retail with so much put from different places different continent different countries. Saudi Arabia Russia's to you know going on with these war who controlled the market so that creates a lot of uncertainty and outlook for the price of crude which we all knew that It's a major to tell me. Not How would home because who those who? Who Do. I need surprise? Oats to also have accused in relation to grow now reserves Fake thing go. Men's revenue and also can boost in external an exports earnings. So the woman days that drove a significant drop in crude oil project. What we're experiencing it means go. Mint will not be able to meet its financial obligations so things like team salaries which are very important to of things that Keno costs to keep the government running things like infrastructure investment in education healthcare spending unlivable would be severely affected as a result of the decline include a price so that was one effects off the virus pandemic on on major out. And we all know that. Didn't they drink on every dependent on government last recession you? What dresses dot point? One days trouble. We'd Goldman finances that direct linkages into the system of course demand going down ability to meet for an exchange needs becomes Richard Grind fixed on our reserves of approaching five dollars. Fallen significantly on this is made was that we don't have adequate savings fiscal bofors because this this is what countries rely on this point in time to see if we can't get rid of and you only need to drive into saving but right now we're GonNa have got so it's a gesture switch on major. It's not an easy one and a lot of a lot of things of ancient would need to go on what we do now because projections. I've said that the recession is inevitable. We come up way so the question then is what is the how come show that. We don't get to the bottom economic depression new and show that we even if we get into research on become come back because he's just a word it's deficts lives and people who are jobs prizes. We'll go up the poll. Become for many people would fall below the poverty line so these are some of the reality. Is that likely to come on onboard going into next year? So that's one. Tim Buck of price on that. Transmission Magnesium is the fact that cinch off and on trade. He's also been disrupted movement. You know challenges and the global supply chain. So there's an overall materials on this show groups that need to be used in production of what I would also be affected especially when many of the global economy is experiencing lockdown economic activities so? I know that Chanel is through the local disruption intensive Destroy activities locally in Niger. Due to look into restriction so that in itself is a very big space that would also planned in parks and we can imagine for almost a month. We've not read it much economics to c.s in my GDP particularly for you on these continues into it took me June so what if you compared to? Gdp growth egos was that we claim to be lower than what we had by this time last year. So that's an eight. Direct hits on economic activities even do Production of essential temp like food drugs on cool but non-essential also very key down. These needs me to the impact on some sectors so far east on the manufacturing sector. Would you want to do it? Because as much respect for the other sectors within during that fall within the enormous I shall read. That's locked fates cement funding loved the older non-essential sickle sub sectors within the manufacturing sector few grocery goes factor and say coins in nineteen grew by just zero point two percent from two point one percents in twentieth. So that tells you that already you experience in decline so these kind of shock to the system much more declaim talks won't key six also come additional one hundred thirty entertainment and recreation. Saito would be heat So tells you restaurants on it basically places. We have gatherings of people events of one on one key areas that are affected by these. Look down that Saito would be obscene. Li La down what we had last year on undertake construction sector. So we've had a case way Because Structure Signal always relies heavily on government spending. So if you look at the jets let one dedicated to capital spending close to over to treat with being. Shall we D- falling oil prices to review the Govan. How to read either budgets to using the bench Bockel Fizi da Barra even with that. And still you know STU opinions going around that that's unit so We may not have any projections because he's not just oil time also annoying so if the economy's on found a major commitment to these you know try to be mean to spray the requires without also means one. I- revenue companies and install commentary so we would also let me see declaiming noyer so that's over of course without fixed construction and even right now the the main focus has been to contain the spread of the buyers. If you notice most of the government's batsmen Goldman spending than channel to hell and some of the sectors. So what are we talking about roots structure on a really apple so to construct contact though would definitely be be hard heats sectors so there's also transport take the transportation movement of goods four segments to real road and see dressing. The transportation was actually the fastest growing thing Clinton in nineteen. I see deep so this time. It's the hot heat. Because the restrictions on the movement is either was one of the best sectors valid affected. Even so it'd be lots of so we would probably have naked down declining. Good enough transports sector across all the different categories so from the air transports to transport a real transport so also social services sector so you have education on our very key. Sick does that. I think that's a result of of the lockdown for education show downloads to and that in itself tells.