Golden Globes, Oscar, Netflix discussed on Little Gold Men
Are right around the corner and we're gathering together to throw out our Golden Globes CBS predictions. Because it's going to really sneak up on us after the holidays and which is exciting because we always love having an award show to dive right back into so we're going to go through the Golden Globes Nominees and make our best stabs at predictions as we always know. It's best not to pretend you know too much. Because the Golden Globes a particular can be really weird and surprising. But we're going to go through movies in television and try to predict what happens and hopefully we get some right. He does want to start at the top and go into best picture drama. Which I actually don't think I know who's going to win? Yeah I mean that's Like you said that this is a hard to predict a job. Because the age of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is made up of sort of a secretive group of you know of not that many foreign journalists but my gas is. They're going to say the Irishman because it check enough boxes. It's appealing to a wide enough kind of selection of people even though it again. That's a narrow voting body. I don't think the Netflix thing will be a problem. I I think we've kind of gotten past that at this point. So that would they don't. I don't think they have an issue. Outright flicks right. Yeah Yeah I mean. The problem for Netflix is the contingent of the the academy and some of the other guilds that is feels protective of the theatrical model. But I don't know that anyone in the Golden Globes voting thought he gives a damn about the American attractive of they're very protective getting movie stars on their TV broadcasts. Yes Y- yeah. I'm tempted to agree with Richard. Sure just because Like that Pesha Pacino roles a nominated screenplays nominate. You know like it's it's. It's well nominated Irishman so. I think that I acre I agree a bunch of wacky foreigners did give joker the golden line advance trust as wacky. Yeah Joker winning. The biggest. Everyone hold onto their hats. Surprise you guys can imagine. That's because marriage story upsetting would be interesting nine hundred seventeen. I can definitely see as a contender but all of these like maybe joker in two popes are the ones where we don't be like. Wait a second. We've been misreading this whole race to be baffling and joker would be kind of ominous a something. Yeah what's up because it's all going to come down. The Globes is the Han foreign press. They love their movie stars to be on their TV show and then they also Kim successful campaigning like campaigning. Really works on them is what I've noticed eh straight so. I do think that Netflix feels like It's got strongest chance here. I have a formula for gauging. My my own predictions for Golden Globes. But it's a little bit cynical I don't know. Do we like cynicism on this podcast. I feel that the Golden Globes are pretty much irrelevant at least as a as a voting body. It's eighty seven people who so some are legitimate journalists some have more dubious credentials. The show itself has a kind of wonky history But I think they derive their legitimacy intimacy from the appearance of legitimacy so if the films that they recognize go on to win Oscars people say well the Golden Globes H F. It's a bellwether for the Academy Awards. which is the one that filmmakers actress studios in the public in general really cares about so I think so? I mean to malign anybody but I think often I feel like the Golden Globes give their trophy to the film that they think is going to win in the Oscar or as likely to win the Oscar. So they're actually. The Golden Globes are the predictions for the Oscar. Yes yeah spotting so. That's kind of like so what I think if they they don't WanNa go they don't WanNa make the wild choice because they don't want people to come back and go. Oh yeah well they go they go choose crazy things like they're they're contrarians. RHAPSODY did win in this category last year. So you never know through the that Nathanael. I think. That's a good argument for Irishman because it's got such a prominent spot at the top of the race and also I think a good argument for what's time in Hollywood in the comedy category. which to me need that one seems like a much safer bet given on board for both of those? Yeah that's that's the one I think we'll win it and we've talked about this just the last thing about. Mary store like Mary Marriage story had landed differently. When it premiered on Netflix? Then we'd be having a different conversation but it landed in the midst of this very silly. I don't know I just feel like marriage story. You got on a lot of different sides by just the discourse in a way that even despite the discourse around the Irishman the Irishman didn't so yeah I could see those is that marriage story has become kind of a joke like I feel like whenever I see people talking about marriage story now they're kind of mocking it and the the intensity of the emotion or the melodrama of it and. I don't think that's a good that doesn't feel good in terms of its awards prospects especially think Status Conscious Golden Globe. Voters would look at it. No we don't WanNa vote for the movie that everybody's kind of making joking memes about. Yeah if I had been asked to predict which movie of the fall all would become the blake. Have a very hilarious Matach to it. It would not have been a no about about divorce. I think you're right that I mean at least from our sort of filtered perspective which is you know looking at twitter all day or whatever that that particular marriage to remain which is the four panels. You know them fighting with overlaid text La- it does kind of frame. The movie in a context that I don't think is really beneficial to I think you guys are two extremely online. I don't know when I've been having conversations and we're about marriage story admittedly I I'm dominating these conversations but it's just about how good it is so I don't know I feel like twitter is doing its twitter thing but I'm not sure that that's ask the conversation that's happening among award season insiders but maybe the FBI on twitter ruins things. I don't know I mean you guys are all season insider so so maybe I'm I'm probably just out of it but But yeah I I want to resist the notion. That twitter has ruined A marriage story. But I do think that Ed Murray story doesn't have the epic you know. Sweep of the Irishman and it doesn't have compelling of a kind of you know capping a series series and a career or several careers Of An argument the way. That Irishman has Irishman just has a ton of sort of is like a little bit of a freight train coming into this thing with a lot of weight behind it. That being said like the third thing that Hollywood foreign press is obsessed with is is is anointing new talent They love they love ushering in the new and planted their flag on that. And so I think just as the Irishman is like here is the end of not end of like closing of an era of a kind of you know actors and film making a ball Blah like Adam driver and Scarlett Johansson are like of the now generation like you know Oh right now if you're listening in January right now. We're in the midst of an driver. Fresh air controversy I suppose but like driver being anointed as like you know who's already worked with Scorsese who's been anointed as as new thing. I think that that is appealing link could be appealing to the gloves with that. Might be more relevant to discuss in the acting categories that in this category all right because my do comedy. Yeah I mean I think Katie. You're you're on the nose with with Hollywood I. I would be surprised to see JOE JOE or or knives out or Dolemite win. I mean rocket. Man You know like you know did win a best picture trophy at the Golden Globes last year. So so maybe that has has more legs than than than I think it. It does but if Joanna's bribes have gone through the F.. Jeff but I just I don't know I just can't see them not rewarding not only Clinton Tarantino movie not only a Brad Pitt and Leo DiCaprio movie but also a movie about Hollywood. It just feels like those three things combined makes it kind of a syllable. I'm with you on all those points. Hundred percent well then. Let's combine all of them into best director and figure out who we think is going to triumph here because as I go through our weekly predictions on our awards guide like basically feels like Scorsese and Tarantino are tackling back and forth as the best picture best director front runners. And I kind of almost feel like you could flip a coin on these two in this category. I I think it could go either way and You know sometimes when you have a coin flip situation where voters feel strongly about two individuals They look for a way to split the vote right or split it give recognize them for one thing or another thing and I think like if if if Tarantino doesn't get director I could see that going to scorsese and then screenplay going to Tarantino Yeah because that's where Tarantino tends to end up right like he's well Oscars for it like it's just kind of people like oh I mean. Of course he's amazing filmmaker but it's the writing or you know it's it's a safe place to put him. Um We're certainly score. Says he has more of a sort of great director from the You know the seventy golden age of cinema kind of aura about him while Turkey does making movies about that Eric Score says he was making that era. I don't know I have this weird feeling that because it's it wasn't able to be nominated in the best picture category that that some voters might be like you know we'll give it among Juninho here. It's an amazingly directed film. It is by some of the movie of the year. I thought that too. Yeah Yeah when you go. Galaxy Brain Sir thinking about Oscars and best picture the whole preferential ballot at the Oscars which we can get into later like. It's not really possible to slip boats because you know if one of them is in first place in the votes get allocated gated so the Irishman versus once upon a time in Hollywood like that won't factor in but in director at does so you could also imagine score says he and Tarantino splitting the amount of affection and bonking Ho kind of cruising losing to the top which has happened before I could also see San Mendez. Just coming in here with with that kind of slightly strange Win You know we'd we'd be that strange but I could see. I don't know blood also won last year. So if we're going by the same metric of like like parasites in this other category just like Roma was right right. Most people angry most people seem to consensus agree that it was maybe the best film of the year. Then then will you know will honor June in this category up here. So is there not cinematography because that would be maybe an eighty eighty young technical prizes. So maybe weirdly Sam Mendes could get you know the nineteen seventeen Oscar. Because there's no Oscar to give Roger Deakins and bugged me a golden glove. Oh and then Bongino gets the foreign when everybody gets gets a statue of very spread the wealth money it. Yeah I mean if if the nineteen eighteen seventeen surge is going to happen start happening. It's going to be there because running out of things for which would be interesting but I think I feel like if if we want if we can move on to actors Like I feel like that's where the Globes can get kinda weird. I guess it's usually in supporting Aaron Taylor Johnson winning for nocturnal animals or something. Thank my favorite. And even though the Globes are not all that useful as kind of clarifying metric I will be curious to see how the great it kind of best actor shuffle. That has been this season is sort of you know. Sort of sorted out by by this category. Because like you know it's it's been such a competition and even just get nominated because there have been so many huge performances in two thousand nineteen I fear Edge. Joaquin Phoenix Win for for some reason for some reason I'm thinking Antonio Banderas Harris has probably bear hugged all eighty seven members of the fit. Like I I was like I wonder if it's because I've just been thinking like oh it's driver. It's definitely driver but like like Mary getting MEEMA FIDE and then driver getting like vilified for this fresh air thing who knows how long this news cycle last. I Apologize College is once again. We're in the midst of it. Released Star Wars is also going to happen on the Globes Gasol night at my next point where the the rises guy workers is currently currently sitting with a nice fifty three percent rotten score on rotten tomatoes so I thought it was just going up and up and up for driver and instead there's a bunch of roadblocks that I did not not see coming so does rise of skywalker.