China, Mark Mobius, United States discussed on Bloomberg Best
He's being bird next June Grosso and I'm Ed Baxter the co founder of mobile capital partners, says the emerging market, benchmark index will probably keep falling if the trade war persists, given China's significant waiting Mark Mobius spoke to Bloomberg's David Westin, Alix steel, dramatic move in the US treasuries, also in the bund at the same time, we had China data that was weak in that situation. Where do you go for you? Well, that's a good question. Because at the end of the day, it's in the emerging market space that we have better yields. And of course, it's in those most mis-keyed countries, whether it be Turkey Tina. That's where you're gonna get yield. But unfortunately, it's also align with a lot of risk. So it's getting very, very difficult to find a good yield in these markets. It seems like Mark part of the thesis six months ago is by southeast Asia. But then if you wind up having China data rolling over as well and trade war, how do you buy southeast Asia? They're exactly if you look at the trade in Asia, generally the biggest trading partner for most of those countries is China. So if China is going to be importing less all of these countries are going to be hit. So we have to be very cautious in look at each and every company in those countries to see whether they're going to be affected by the situation in China. So Mark gives us a timeframe that you think about when you start investing in, particularly when it comes to the China US tried trade dispute if this goes on indefinitely for an extended period time other opportunities in for example, southeast Asian countries where there may be supply chains that are altered, we're looking at is places. Like Vietnam places like Bangladesh aware. A lot of the Chinese manufacturers are moving production. So you have an interesting situation where okay exports have low cost goods from China to the US going down because of the tariffs, but that is being moved to these low cost countries. So that's why we would be looking to see opportunities for export is at least in these week currency countries and then further field we're interested in places like Brazil, because lots of reform going on there. And India, those the two countries where you're not going to be very much affected by what's happening in China and the US China trade disputes. So Mark, what's your base case, then for what happens to the UN and how you playing that at all? Well, I think that the situation now is so liquid and so difficult is because China US you're going to have to be very cautious when you look at individual companies that depend. And on exports to China oil exports from China to the US. So that's the reason why clauses and you can see. The Chinese market is down as a result of this, and I think the emerging markets index will be continuing down if this continues because China now represents about thirty percent of the index marketing Trump over the opportunities in emerging markets. We're seeing a lot of funds flowing out emerging markets right now. I really pretty dramatic shift there. How do you take advantage of that without trying to catch a falling knife? That's a cushion, you know, the problem is, is that most of the funds, of course, are index funds, ETF's, and the depends on the index and the index depends on China because as I said, thirty percent is China. So China goes down the index goes down, which is intact. What's happened? So it's understandable. So what we do as active investors say, look, we're not gonna follow any index. We're going to go after these countries and companies. These that I'm not going to be affected, and therefore we can escape. From this downturn you escape an African. Yeah. Africa is very interesting. Now there are a lot of countries there that are beginning to look, much better before the problem with Africa. Of course, is liquidity. Do you differentiate between services or any companies and manufacturing? So, for example, Bangladesh or south southeast Asia, or are you talking about manufacturing? Yes, primarily manufacturing export oriented manufacturing and consumer goods because with the greater employment higher wages as result of this expert push. We're very interested in low cost consumer goods things like hair oil. Keep cosmetics that sort of thing that was Mark Mobius Moebius capital partners co founder and partner and coming up. Nobel laureate. Michael,.