United States, University Of Warwick discussed on BBC World Service


Lee expert in disease modelling at the university of Warwick Mike when it came to closing schools all of a sudden US civilians became aware that there are many different ways that you could model the importance all north of the school as a vector one way or the other what do you think are the the main criteria that the governments and people have to look at in terms of deciding when to reopen schools well I mean obviously there's at least two conflicting factors there and this is why it's a really really challenging decision I'm on the one hand I'm at some point we need to start thinking about releasing these log not locked down measures and starting to resume some levels of normal life in a part of that and this is why some of the decisions are being made in some countries is allowing some workers to go back to work what is your children to go back to work so that's one of the reasons why it's being considered the children being sent back to school on the other hand this is the real challenge there's still a lot of uncertainty I regarding the role of children in transmission we know who from the data that we have that children tend to have only a relatively mild symptoms old maybe even in some cases have no symptoms a toll when they get infected what we still don't know who really is the precise role that these children playing transmission so that could be a risk that if schools start to reopen rapidly that we could stop the resurgence of now she's not is really interesting because one or two and I understood from the reporting the I heard here on this program last week wanted to parents in Denmark was saying listen we don't want our kids to be used as a Guinea pig because you can't guarantee that they're not going to be exposed to infection and so on so in effect you're saying that right because you can never say there is no risk well I I think this is unfortunately this is one of the problems with these look that matches that I mean if we take the U. K. as an example when we started to introduce look that matches all the matches came in relatively close together over the space of maybe three to four days I'm out it's really hard we're trying to mobile this to predict the relative impact of all these different types of measures closing pubs and restaurants closing schools closing what places and sidewall at some point as I said we have to start using these measures and unfortunately this is one of the this is one of the consequences of this that we will have to relax a measure I'm in the world whole thought will helpful tonight's action said this missiles that if the measure is relaxed we need to allow a period of time to be able to observe the effectiveness of the ISS what exactly we need to know how long that period is and was still slightly unclear about the the sort of the infection delays and that kind of thing when it comes to the thing that we're all going to be talking about fairly soon avoiding the second wave of infections all schools particularly an important part of that or they just one of the many factors such as work social distancing and so on that have to be slowly tested and brought him well I would I would say there are particularly important part of that they certainly could play a role in that send unfortunately I get it which it does feel like a little bit that we're all being Guinea pigs and we'll have to sort of relax a measure gather information and then we will have a look strong confidence in the effectiveness I mean what you need what you need to remember here is that we know that for a lot of countries in Europe we can say relatively confident legal the lock down that just happen the facts that have reduced transmission I'm we all seeing that we have managed to reduce all reproduction on the side of it the academic codes all turning over what we don't know necessarily how rapidly that setting I've run it may be that we can release some measures and we can still keep the epidemic under control but it may be that actually releasing some measures we start to see a rise again so it's really important that when we list measures and observe we're able to be reactive and if necessary some measures may need to be reintroduced trust one off many thanks indeed up to Mike Gillislee of the university of Warwick an expert in disease modeling its knees I from the BBC world service we gonna leave you with the raw the lifting the story of a Spanish taxi driver and that he had been giving patients at Lister hospital for free in metrics to and from appointments also going for nothing in return he got a call from the hospital Finke what they said to him can you come pick up another patient when he walks in he called this instead.

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