LSU, Matt House, FBS discussed on Bet The Board
Right, health orchestrate the Kansas City Chiefs defense. At one point in his career, LSU pressured opposing quarterbacks on an SEC high 35% of dropbacks last season. So actually the 14th highest rate in the FBS, why was that so important? Because the Tiger's secondary ranked a 112th in the FBS and pass efficiency defense and drop backs in which the quarterback was not pressured, allowing a rating of one 61.4. Pain from a defensive line standpoint, this LSU group looks like they're as a lot of NFL caliber potential. Ally gay was hurt last year, but he flashed and showed what he was capable of and limited snap count. BJ jalari, another absolute beast up front. And when you're talking about ends with disruptive energy, then get home, they're going to have to given some of the inexperience and unproven commodities in the secondary. So if we're looking at LSU defensively, what are some realistic parameters or guardrails we should be setting for what coach house is going to be dealing with? I really like madhouse. He might not be a household name. I see what you did there. I see what you did there. But he is well respected among football people. He was at Pittsburgh under Paul Chris coaching the likes of Aaron Donald. Last three seasons, he was the linebackers coach for the Kansas City Chiefs, won a Super Bowl ring prior to his NFL stop. Matt house was Kentucky's defensive coordinator in 17 and 18 under Mike stoops. And he inherited a Kentucky defense. That was 93rd and schedule adjusted efficiency. After two seasons, Kentucky was 15th. So he has shown an ability to improve defenses. On paper, you hit it perfectly. The strength of LSU this season should be their defensive line. You have ally gay. You have BJ O jalari. They return after injury shortened seasons. Can they stay healthy? That's something they necessarily haven't proven to do over time. On the inside, you have Jack on Roy graded out the best returning defender LSU has mason Smith was a 5 star freshman in 2021 should progress there in year two. Brian Kelly also landed Mackay wingo a four star interior alignment from Missouri, who played well as a true freshman. It'll be tough to follow up last season's numbers with a 22% stuff rate and finishing 7th and pressure rate among power 5 defenses. But there's a lot of talent along that D line for Matt house. It looks like spring camp caused some shuffling at linebacker. Mike Jones and Greg penner, the projected starters coming into fall camp despite Micah bakersville having a far superior season to both of them last season. In talent and namesake, LSU secondary loses a ton, Derek stingley was the third pick in the NFL Draft Eli rich transfers to Alabama and was the best man cover corner in 2020. If you're only dissecting teams from that viewpoint to help with projections, I feel like it's probably wrong. We know sting lean ricks didn't want to be there. We know for two seasons players hated their defensive coordinators and energy and effort was optimal. And that's why you have the third pick and Rick sleeve. Projected increased production last season. I wasn't very good, right? LSU was outside the top 90 in EPA per pass allowed. And then you had a passing success rate aloud that was outside the top 90 as well with those elite players. Effort and energy and care and being buttoned up really are key components of trying to play defense. I think you'll see a defense that cares and is a little bit more buttoned up. And so the names won't be as good, but I think the production does increase. You have Joe voucher coming over from Arkansas. He's coming off a plus season. You have jerick Bernard converse comes over from Oklahoma state. He grayed out Jim Noel's second best player in a secondary from a historically good Oklahoma state defense that finished top 5 in the country. The Louisiana transfer has been one of the most valuable corners in the last two seasons. I'm not saying this is going to be an elite secondary year one. And again, there's not as much premium name talent. But effort. And a better coordinator. They can yield improvement and listen, injury luck will improve as well. LSU had the second worst injury luck last season. What I can say here is overall, we bet LSU under 7 and a half row of this off season. It's now 6 and a half. It's an absolute stay away at that price. I've even seen other sports books out west Todd year former stomping grounds using a 6. At 6, if it was forced to bet the thing I'd be going to be going over. Where we got it at 7 and a half, it was only one thought there. There's only one mindset and that was going under. Ultimately, selling LSU at their peak off season price because of the lack of depth and the schedule made some sense for us. It makes a ton of sense. I mean, this is a team, honestly, that when you look at their schedule, you could see them come together, you know, somewhere during the middle of the campaign and maybe be an undervalued commodity on a weekend, week out basis, or there's a very real possibility that you don't get full buy in with a lot of fresh faces there. Clearly Brian Kelly will have the resources and no academic hurdles to try and navigate around down there in Baton Rouge like he dealt with it in order to name, but at the same time, it's a lot of pressure. It's a lot of expectations. And Irish fans had grown restless with his inability to get over the hump.