Afghanistan, Taliban, Asia discussed on The World: Latest Edition


Online at the world dot. Org we'll be right back you're listening to the world. As a presidential candidate. Joe biden was a harsh critic of trump's tariffs on china but now the biden has a seat at the table. The terrorists are still there. Why you don't just give away all your chips. Once how dealing with china is like a high stakes game of poker and punk rock marimba from mexico makes its debut all ahead here on the world. i'm marco werman year with the world. We are co production of gbh boston. Npr affects the ripple effects of the taliban takeover of afghanistan are quickly reverberating across its borders specifically. Some afghans are looking north to central asia. As a potential safe haven it's unclear though how receptive countries like becca stan. Tajijistan may be too large numbers of afghans. Looking to relocate. Meanwhile russia is keeping a close eye on its southern border with central asia. Alexander cooley is the director of columbia. University's harriman institute where he studies central asia and the caucasus and has been focused on the central asian side of the story alexander. Just how is the upheaval in afghanistan. Impacting central asian countries. That border afghanistan. I think there is considerable concern in central asia as to what this will mean both directly in terms of the possibility of refugee crisis in spillover of members of the afghan army that has been melting away as well as broader uncertainty regarding what the regional future of afghanistan and it's extended surroundings. Look at so. This is quite an important crisis that all of the central asian states are scrambling to formulate policy responses to there have been reports of some pilots from afghanistan's military common during aircraft and flying to gca stan. What do you think will happen with these people. There's a broad sense that unlike twenty years ago where all the central asian states maybe with the exception of turkmen Wanted to put up a real barrier in dealings with the taliban they wanted to be on board the international coalition effort think. There's a broad sense that the taliban is here to stay and they have to negotiate broad mechanisms and procedures for dealing with them that includes the potential return of refugees. It's not clear at all weather. Say tadjikhistan which is very suspicious of the taliban. We'll take a hard line and offer. Sanctuary permanent exile. Mice sense is probably that they won't that i think there is going to be a broad ranging consensus to limit the kind of crossborder spillages going to dissuade others from doing the same ultimately. I think the future as they see it is very much one of accommodation all regional hours. All bordering countries have to learn to live with this new era. So russia is following those developments closely. How do they see this up. Yvonne what is their relationship with some of the central asian countries bordering afghanistan. I think for the russians. They've been buying the situation afghanistan now for many years behind the scenes. Putin's afghan on voi- has been highly critical of the previous afghan government refusal to accommodate the taliban. So it's been preparing itself for this. Us withdrawal in general. I think for the russians. This illustrates a broader point that the u. s. cannot be trusted that its military interventions attempt to promote democratisation in state building regime. Change always end up in chaos just as they did in iraq just as they libya so that part of its is messaging is relatively consistent. But i do think that you are going to see the outline of some sort of deal. Relatively quickly where moscow agrees to recognize the taliban government in exchange the taliban agrees to keep those central asian borders a relatively stable insecure into not spillover. So here we are. In august of twenty twenty one chaos and pandemonium in afghanistan but russia did not evacuate or even closed its embassy in kabul. What is russia's relationship with italian today. Well not only his russian evacuated know. Who's still there. China iran pakistan. I think this gives us a really interesting window. Into the fact that there is this tacit kind of post western regional consensus that is emerging. So i think it tells us that everyone wants to accommodate themselves that. They're prepared to tryin sort through and make it work. There's no guarantee that things are necessary. Gonna go smoothly. But i think from the perspective of beijing and moscow. There is no desire to bring the united states back in any capacity so pulling out alexander looking at the big picture here how does the. Us withdrawal from afghanistan play into russia's overall political goals in the region. I think at the moment it serves them to be honest. I think russia has always tread a careful line. It wanted to highlight. Us failings in the region. It wanted to show that the us had broken yet another country. The regime change agenda doesn't work and that this kind of projection of democratic state-building through us military forces a recipe for disaster at the same time. It really did not want to collapse state on its post-soviet borders and so it's achieved the verse goal and now it is looking through direct contacts in coordination with that regional players to ensure that there is some sort of basic stability in the region but if it can achieve that then there's no doubt that this is a victory for broader russian international ambitions which sees at its heart pushing back against the. Us led so called liberal international order so finally. Where would that leave the us. A nato countries that have been in afghanistan for the past twenty years. I think the. Us is going to be mostly excluded from afghanistan's future. Look that's the big change whether the us can reengage with the region in a way that it's not actually formally controlling this kind of client state that had set up with aghanistan. I think that's an open question and how much. Us engagement a taliban government would be willing to accept but we shouldn't camouflage this. There's no doubt that this is a major geopolitical shift. That's underway alexander. Cooley the director of columbia. University's harriman institute where he studies central asia and the caucasus alexander. Thank you very much for helping us understand afghanistan especially in the context of its neighbors. Hey my pleasure thanks for having me on the trade war with china. Remember that well..

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