FED, Fomc, Powell discussed on CoinDesk Podcast Network
Expecting another big hike and ensured the answer is yes. The hike was a fairly foregone conclusion. Instead, what folks were really focused on was what the qualitative statements would be around how the fed was thinking about going forward. For example, heading into the meeting market indicators were split on whether to expect a 50 basis point hike or another 75 basis point hike in December. A team of Bloomberg economists said the fed is widely expected to hike rates by 75 basis points for a fourth consecutive meeting. Less certain is how fed chair Powell will communicate a potential future downshift in the rate hike pace. The degree of conviction, the risks around hike sizing and implications for the terminal rate. We expect that he will present a 50 basis point move as the base case, and clarify that a downshift in the pace of rate hikes does not necessarily mean a lower terminal rate. Now, of course, when it comes to any speculation around what the fed is going to do in December, the reality is there is a lot of economic data to come in between now and then. There are two jobs reports and two inflation reports before that next FOMC meeting. And along the chief U.S. economist at Bloomberg said, I think the most important thing to watch for is how power communicates the potential downshift in the pace of rate hikes. He will want to avoid giving the impression that a pivot is imminent, especially not when core inflation is clearly still going strong. He would be preparing the market for a 50 basis point hike in December, but which will also be accompanied with a dot plot which shows a 5% terminal rate. Now, even before the FOMC presser, this question of the terminal rate was on people's minds. Nick Timur was again says one source of confusion for some investors recently is how fed officials could contemplate, slowing the pace of rate rises even if estimates of the peak rate creep higher. The obvious dilemma for financial markets is many things can be true simultaneously. For example, strategists at FHN financial expect the fed to hike to 6% by next June. After this week's increase the fed could accomplish that without another 75 basis point rate rise. Now, the other tricky thing for the fed going into this is that markets are so desperate for a sign of a pivot. The Powell has to be extremely careful with his words. Numerous times we've seen a situation where the markets get out of the head of where the fed is. And the market rallies that ensue actually makes monetary policy harder to do its job. Greg Spence writes one way not to get a fed pivot is by taking a four week 15% parabolic rally into FOMC built on yet another flimsy pivot narrative orchestrated during fed blackout. Dubois realized this is the 6th time they've played this exact game, so at this point I think we should actually look at what news came out of the fed. The short of it is that they're staying the course. We got another 75 basis point hike with Powell saying we continue to anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate. We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2%. In addition, we are continuing the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet. Now, on inflation, power flag that it's sticky but expectations remain okay, but that that could change. Quote, recent inflation data again have come in higher than expected. Price pressures remain evident across a broad range of goods and services. Despite elevated inflation, longer term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, has reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets. But that is not grounds for complacency. The longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched. End quote. When it comes to growth, Powell said that although quote the U.S. economy has slowed significantly from last year's rapid pace, labor remains the issue. Putting a fine point on this palisade, the labor market continues to be out of balance with demand substantially exceeding the supply of available workers. And what about a pause or an acknowledgment of policy lag? On that front Powell said, it will take time for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation. That's why we say in our statement that in determining the pace of future increases in the target range, we will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy and the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation. At some point, as I've said at the last two press conferences, it will become appropriate to slow the rate of increases as we approach the level of interest rates that will be sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to our 2% goal. Now some of this talk was initially taken by the markets as bullish. The headline was that the fed says it will take cumulative tightening and lags into account. Alex Krueger tweeted that headline and said excellent. If Powell doesn't mess it up, should get an upwards trend out of the FOMC. By explicitly mentioning lags in the data, the FOMC statement validated the micro pivot from two weeks ago. Now waiting for the press conference, and if nothing new, clear to run. That's a big if. So did it happen? The short answer was nope. And the biggest thing that shifted the markets take on this FOMC meeting were comments from Powell that new data that they had received since the September meeting suggested that the terminal rate the peak interest rate that they believed would be required to get inflation down had gone up. This led to something of a case of fed day whiplash. The S&P 500 rose by almost 1% in the 5 minutes after the FOMC statement on interest rates was released. As I mentioned being viewed as confirmation of a dovish slowing of rate hikes on the horizon. However, when fed chair Powell took the stage half an hour later adopting a hawkish tone, the markets began to slide, dropping 3.3% to close the day down two and a half percent. Bitcoin traded in a similar way, round tripping a spike then a dump to end the day down half a percentage point. Here's how macro analyst Paulo macro some this up. Okay, quickly on the fed, no pause coming, higher terminal, four handle is off the table, sorry, Bros, harder landing lightly is what was said among many other things. What was unsaid? One, he was asked about plus 50 in December and he dodged, saying it's about the pace, what level we get to and how long we stay there. But he left it open. He also left 75 open and implicitly left 100 basis points open. He does not know the road is wide open. And that is massive uncertainty risk to the path in the context of a higher terminal. This means risk premium must go up to account for varied outcomes. When the future becomes more uncertain in terms of path, risk premier go up.