Dan Goldberg, Seventy Percent, Thirty Percent discussed on POLITICO Dispatch
So beyond some of these broader geographical trends. What specifically do we know about who people who aren't getting vaccinated are in. Is that something like we can really truly know that we have data on. We have some idea based on polling data. I mean we do know that there's a small group of people maybe twenty percent Hell no we are getting this vaccine and included in that bucket of people are conspiracy theorists or people who don't take cova very seriously There is a group of people with access issues. They don't have the childcare. They don't have transportation they can't get off work in a lot of people still work two three four jobs just to make ends meet and there's no way for them to take a day off if they should they get side effects from the backseat So that's a separate bucket to and there are efforts being made to work at that. The third bucket or sort of this more apathetic group of people i would say They'll get it eventually. But they don't see a sense of urgency and you can see that in the data especially among younger people so people i would say under forty years old who traditionally have not gotten sick from kovic. So they don't necessarily see the urgency of getting the vaccine. I think that's the group that some of these prizes that you're seeing in states targeted ask you about that. We've seen a number of these flashy incentive programs pop up recently to encourage people to get vaccinated shoutout to my home state of ohio. Doing a a lottery where you can win a million dollars if you get a vaccine west. Virginia is giving out a dollar savings bonds. There some bless exciting ones like the free beer. I missed out on. And i think he forgot memphis is giving away a car thing. Oh okay okay. So that's pretty cool. So there's there's a lot out there but do we have any measure on how effective things like that are or could be with convincing people to get vaccines Well the short answer is we don't know yet if they will work. We did see the the rates of vaccination take in ohio. Just after that announcement was made But they sort of kind of reverted to the mean Last few days. So it's it's too early to tell. And and ohio is so far in a above. Anything anyone else's done that it's really going to be a good case study. The problem is from a public health perspective. It's going to be really hard to know unless ohio blows numbers out of water whether it was the million dollar price were whether it was that vaccine now being open to kids between twelve and fifteen years old. We don't have a great way of this aggregating these things you know. We're we're also now saying that People who are vaccinated have more ability to go places without having to wear a mask Maybe there's some people finally feel safe or some people finally found childcare so there's going to be a lot of where there are a lot of things being thrown against the wall to target those different buckets of people that i mentioned earlier. And we're not entirely sure Which one works. And i was talking to somebody from west virginia actually said you know. It doesn't really matter when we don't even care why it works You know the analogy is sort of when the patient is sick. And you don't know why you just throw broad spectrum antibiotics right you. Just give them everything and see what see what happens. Yeah i think that's a little bit of what states are trying to do now. You know we're offering it on college. Campuses in new york offering into the subway Sort of just throwing everything against the wall and then we'll see in about a month where what works best and probably doubled down on those strategies so as things stand now. Vaccination rates are down states. Have more vaccine supply than they know what to do with. Were literally sitting on vaccines in some cases if we continue with the current trends. What does that mean for the timeline. For reaching herd immunity or could hurt immunity and up out of reach like some experts of set. So it's important to remember that herd. Immunity isn't really a national concept is sometimes we think of it that way because that's how the president talks but it doesn't really help us if main is ninety percent vaccinated and alabama's at thirty percent. Right i mean people travel across country. Yeah so we. We really need herd immunity in every county in the united states are certainly nearly every county in the united states And we're not entirely sure what we're purred. Immunity is obviously. We are making progress because the cogan numbers are going down. You know. there's some thought that it is somewhere around seventy eighty percent. So if you wanted sort of do some back of the envelope math and if you looked at national projections we need another seventy million people in this country adults to get fully vaccinated to reach seventy percent of all adults and at the moment were averaging a little more than a million a day so again if you do some very rough math at this pace will get there by the end of july. But that assumes we maintain the current pace which. I'm not entirely sure we'll do. You know if the pace continues to slow down through august. September october to sort of hit that mark and like i said we'll probably get nationally but you know how long is it gonna take for alabama and mississippi and georgia to reach seventy percent of their population fully vaccinated are going and unless something changes. Its may not happen this year. Dan goldberg big so much for talking with me. Thank you. It's always a pleasure. Also today the uk is launching a new study to look at corona virus vaccine boosters hailed by the british government as a world first effort. The trial will assess astra zeneca pfizer. Moderna novak's johnson and johnson and other vaccines as potential booster shots. That would be given ten to twelve weeks after a second dose in the booster shot could be a different brand from the one originally used drugmakers are already carrying out their own studies on the response to booster shots but the uk trial will specifically examine.