Churchill, Steve Asmussen, Wilkes discussed on How To Bet Horse Racing Podcast
Living at home and then all of a sudden we're asked to stay in hotel somewhere you know you you know it's got the sane and and I will say this. He doesn't have John Hancock chasing them down the stretch either. He doesn't have guys coming in from the farm in our already right. He's got guys like Michael. Yates routh Knicks. One over auto hiring del and Aaron. Del does very well. They're very good. They prep those horses in extensive fashion at the farm. They get them righty they. Bring them up and give them the two works to give the gauge boom. They go so he's actually facing stiffer competition and he has to do more sources down in Florida. Then he really wants to where he could train with more comfortable here at King and be able to do what he needed to do. So it's a combination of thing. I don't think anything's changed other than the competition. The training the training the trainers colony and three. Just not being at home turf way to leg-up he doesn't have keeneland know the leg up. He did have a couple of goes down here. He's got a few here. That been training up to five eighths which could be ready. Which is a big difference. He's been at Gulfstream Park West. Going three eight out of the gate which I don't even put any substance in any of those times from jet Gulfstream Park West. But he he. I don't think he can do what he wants to do. Because of the no lay six and the inability of being at home and facing tougher trainers speeding a tough trainers The only other one individually mentioned among the two year olds but Steve Asmussen The last five years in the May June portion of the churchill racing. He has more than twice the number of two year old maiden special weight. Starters is any other trainer and incredible with all those numbers actually a positive our Y So not even over Beth given his name recognition. And how well he does. Where two year olds Any patterns handicappers can look out for and in Steve bringing a two year old runner to the maiden special weight ranks in terms of where the better ones might train or when he likes to work etc. Well first of all these statistics you have for the Churchill. Spring-summer me at least a spring part you can just tear up and throw in the trash because this is a year. This is your ear your twilight zone strikes. You know outpointed this podcast that yeah and blunt you just gotTa take that and throw it out now. Does he have a lot of two year at at Keeneland? Yeah he's got a couple of that have been training really well. Black Cop Brad Cox. Few over there that he's starting to set down really. So they're going five eighths. They're going they're going. They're five as what they need to do but I would be weary. I'd be Leery of ood finding SIS coming in with one worker to over Keelan and then running because I can guarantee you. Debt Steve. Asmussen has had a lot of his two year olds training down in And El Primero down at their private facility. I don't know if they would be shut down but they. I think it's Romero right. Yes Keith Mrs Place I would be. I would not be surprised if he's had a lot of them going down their training. And you don't see anything as far as time goes as a private facility. Come up get that get work that they need that pop out of the gate that easy half mile and boom and run so I would be looking at horses that make you go. Where's this source? Been kind of a little bit more because day might be coming in from somewhere fit and ready now. Lonestar. I don't believe Lone Star Ben Open. I don't believe Sam Houston's been opened. That's another one of his favorite to get US ready. I know Auckland hasn't had two year olds out there. I don't believe if they have. I got to look at the TAB and find out Fairgrounds may have had a couple but it would be very interesting to see where they up from and you kind of have to make it up as you go along in reality. Yeah that's I. Guess THE FLIP. A double edged sword. I A lot of conviction especially early intimate but on the other hand that type of uncertainty in the market might might create some better prices along the way including on him. I mean I guess I'm taking the idea that horseman who have proven themselves and different situations throughout their career. Might have an edge here. And certainly Steve with his father far-flung operation and seems to have a handle for for handling different variables whereas I don't know maybe other guys who were stuck here all winner might be more of a challenge to to have certain horses ready depending on the condition and also we've had weather here in Kentucky. I mean will. We have rain for like three days during the week. That kind of you know can wreck havoc The one thing I'll say is the biggest change in the mall and the biggest game. Changer is the no lasix? 'cause I think some guys after to really be careful how they train horses because if you get a two year old and you do too much too soon and they bleed on you now you gotta start all over and you gotta give him time and and and that can be that can be a real a real issue for some horsemen. You would probably see a lot. More horsemen scope and horses Lot more horsemen not bushy horses to do some of the things they need to do until the radio watching horse the other day. There was a Darren Miller that that worked really well. And I'm tr- Honorable Bow I think is his name and the one thing about it is first half mile. He went really fast on forty nine in his first half mile and then right away the next work Darren slow them down the fifty one. If I'm not mistaken and you really have to do that. And because the no lasix I think a lot of guys who worked fast usually will. WanNa wait an extra week. Give us a work and income in to erase a really changes. How you approach work in horses before you can put them all six and you can work them and s okay. Now you can't At least that's what I understand. I don't know if they can put them on Lasix for work and take them off licence when they run. I'm not sure if you can do that And be able to do those things so I it's a lot and I can tell you that none of the I don't care how good anybody is. None of them have had to deal with what we've had to deal so far. Sure this is definitely unchartered waters really for everyone concerned Before you say something else I need to do this. Forget I wanted to find out. How's your kids? I was Ej out everything going with them with all the all. The problems on the scares that we've had about Govan nineteen. Yeah now they've We've obviously kept pretty close to the vest here. We live in a pretty rural where out by skylight training center. So definitely don't need to get the kids out at all really in public and knock on wood Help healthy at home here. So we J. Haven't had any issues with him I actually for for better words because it makes us feel bad that we probably have to to limit how much he does even when things opened up a little bit But he's probably actually the healthiest. He's been in a while because he hasn't had any. You know all those germs that kids bring to school etc so thankfully jailing for for him which you know he's definitely in the vulnerable category with his pulmonary issues. So I appreciate you asking and you and your wife have done a phenomenal job. My hat goes off to you your dedication to that little boy. Sometimes when I see pictures and videos a hand I get that little little feeling that why I remember when he was born. You were not you. Were dealing glowing when he was. Yeah been through a lot appreciate you saying so and asking. It's turned out to be an amazing blessing world. Good congratulations guys now. You mentioned skylight skylight. Been Open yes so Wilkes. This ad is over there correct. Yeah Wilkerson drewery and I guess probably whether you have to keep a look in in know and find out and kind of get an idea. Hopefully they got all their works published. I know jury is a very good horsemen and very sneaky. And sometimes you gotta read between the lines because not that many works get published right and you know but That's a good point. Skylight could be very interesting because it is a synthetic track. I believe have their training track. Yeah so that's that's that's my next question. I'm glad you brought that up. You reminded me That's that's a good facility And I when I get off the phone with you. I'm GONNA check and see if What the workout looks. Work routes look like from there. And see if there's something that we could use Coming up in the next at least the first couple of weeks right. Yeah now that they've been going. Tommy used to live next door to me and obviously know him anyway in Churchill. So I've I've been in touch throughout all this and it doesn't sound like they've had any hiccups out there. At all other than you know the usual if weather slowed things down it. Cetera via they've been full steam ahead Last question Churchill related got some big name jockeys coming in cast Castellano. Rosario Johnny v Three guys I'm sure you're familiar with well anyone's familiar with period but you obviously see a Lotta them down at Gulfstream. Big Naira names typically any thought to know what were their strengths might lie against this Churchill Colony and certainly. Churchill seems to be a track that does offer some home track advantage when you think of how well someone like Landry or barral More historically have done at that tracks verses others. How do you see these guys in here? What about the Ortiz? Brothers have not heard that they're making the trip I. I wouldn't be surprised if they're here. Mistakes day before Nyerere opens. But I don't believe they're planning on being here regularly. I thought I saw Jose Post something about coming to Kentucky. But listen this could be one of those colonies that can resemble the the old California With pink guide delahoussaye McCarron Stevens Robbi. Toro remember those those. I don't know if you're old enough to remember those particular Off Mike coming of age in the late nineties go on for some but those guys were absolutely amazing and just step back for a second and I'll fill in your question. I am going to handle the first couple of weeks as of Churchill is I would handle a del Mar meet when they opened up track three days before the meat started. I would handle the workouts. I would look at the the horses shipping. And of course you have to go. There won't be that many works or over the track at all Also I don't believe that there's any statistical advantage of being worked over the track and running over the draft from skeptical handicapper by Berry Metro. Dade actually did it And you know little shameless plug for Oldbury. But the other point is is that. When you're looking at the jockey colony you what I WANNA do is. I want to be able to see them ride for people that they don't usually ride for so for example if a grant foster or a jury or a will send. Alaska's doesn't ride for Wilkes or or he doesn't ride for jury and all of a sudden they're on those horses that tells me a little bit more than for example Johnny Velazquez writings for top Letcher. In on which pletcher would be another issue. He's going to have A. You're going to be able to ship in from Palm beach downs and run at Churchill in the first couple of weeks. I don't think so you have to be on the grounds right. I have not seen any restrictions to running. 'cause if you have to be on the grounds that would eliminate. I know I know they're expecting a lot of ship shipments from turf way. Okay Okay what. My my reason is is that you can set that up by simply ship in a horse in you already. Have Your groom. That's been tested at the Barnes. They ship into the barn. So you should be good as far as that's concerned and there would be that human traffic. That could cause a problem but I would look at horses like that. But if Johnny Velazquez shows up on other horse from a Barney doesn't usually get on and like the drewery or Wilkes or grand foster or or even a Greg Foley. You know. That's the kind of ones that I'm gonNA pay attention to. And of course they're gonNA fit in their class world class jockeys yeah no question about them fitting in and actually agree with you and this is anecdotally my power number run the numbers but I kind of thought by you know puts up..