Michael, Arthur, National Hurricane Program discussed on Weather Geeks
Has a lot to do with what's going on in the inner core which is far more difficult to observe and to forecast and that what is going on in the inner core is what made Florence and Michael opposite senses difficult to get hold on in terms of forecasting intensity and most major hurricanes go through a rapid intensification face but we just can't seem to get a handle on when inner core is going to tighten up like that and you know what is going to be the exact timing and magnitude of of rapid densification and Michael showed why this is such a high priority forecast improvement need and has been for years and that is it it was I recall hard to convince everybody in the panhandle to evacuate and the night before we're talking to the Florida governor on television and we're I'm on there with them. We're both pleading together with people to get out but only seem to really motivate people to go was the fact that kept getting stronger and kept getting stronger and got out because they could in a lesser populated area people got out the night before because it had gotten to cat three and into cat four so if if we could forecast our cast rapid intensification <hes> it would save a lot more lives and I think we really owe it to <hes> thank the hurricane hunters. They're amazing data collected continuously as Michael made landfall really save lives Rebecca. What's your take on this? Though as much as we are wanting intensity forecast we better in as much of a problem as rapid intensification is we still had enough of an idea of the strengthening and there there was there were still the useful warnings and products for storm surge and the conversations with emergency managers about the possibility of getting stronger and those storm surge products account for possibilities of stronger system. The system still worked not we still called evacuations in enough time for people to get out yes and that gets into the complicated process of you can have the best forecasts in the world and they will still be a number of other factors that play and and that's what makes my job incredibly difficult <hes> kind of an art of communication plus planning working with our partners as you mentioned. <hes> you know the face to face communication. I interestingly went back and looked since we've started using cell phones which Arthur I think was hurricane. Arthur was the first storm that I can really tell that we started texting each other all the time and using social media and you would think that that would really improve communication station but our number of conference calls were talking to each other has gone up not down so are we really pushing around more information in improving the outcome and helping people evacuate or we just pushing out more information. We have a lot more work to do on that front. Get to understand I think some of the demographics of that area it was different communication message that we needed and storm surge warning on the Atlantic coast for three feet means something different than storm surge warning on the Gulf coast to people when okay here warning. They're thinking Katrina water and that's not necessarily what the forecast was so there's a lot of communication challenges and we really work to help folks understand those localized challenged and the local emergency managers of the ones who really really deserve the lion's share of the credit for those those folks are heroes those women and men who call those evacuations and which is not an easy decision to make and then of course the responders and all the planning that goes on for years to put them in that position and FEMA and the army corps of engineers and Noah Weather Services mainly hurricane center are part of something called the National Hurricane Program that puts all these tools together to empower and enable and equip local emergency managers with some of the tools that they use for that evacuation decision making and again the hurricane liaison.