FED, LIZ, Mike Mckeon discussed on Bloomberg Businessweek


We have Mike McKeon, who's our expert. We talked about this. Yes. I don't think that they want to come out and say that, especially now, where they're really talking. We had one of the fed officials today talking about where you have much more credibility. So I think if they decide to guide us, well, we're at 3%, that's pretty good. I think for now they're going to keep talking that, you know, we're still on course to eventually get to 2%. Like, I think it was remaining in your previous segment was saying, eventually we get to 2%, but I don't think they want to lose that credibility. So maybe at some point, we know a lot of people have said that. I think Muhammad Elliot has talked about that. Going for 2% is just not the right number. But like you said, they've got to be very careful because so much about the fed winning on inflation is credibility. The market believing they'll do what they say. So that might be a big rethink, but I suspect they want to get through this year before they even kind of flick it that they're thinking about thinking about thinking about that. Yeah. Well, I just have to wonder too about the fed's ability to achieve that goal with the tools that they have. I mean, we would all love for inflation to come down Liz, but can the fed do that with the tools that they currently have at their disposal? Well, it's funny that one thing, you know, an investor said to me. And I always love when they bring something up, 'cause they're supposed to be smarter than me and they are, but I'm not asking that. I don't know if they are. Well, you say, well, Liz, by the way, and one guy said to me an investor, listen, Liz, you know, rate hikes are one thing, but I'm really worried about the quantitative tightening, which we've kind of forgotten about, which is the fed rolling off its balance sheet, which is at full speed now, and you know, what if that does continue on for another year or so, like the fed would like. There's some saying if the fed, of course, has to eventually cut, they'll stop that. But so you do have these two tools going. The right tool is the most blunt chair pals made that very clear. But they're also pretty quickly trying to bring that balance sheet down. So there is a lot of tightening in the system. And like you said, none of us feel too good. My vegetables are still more expensive than ever, but eventually they should get there. We hope to bring down inflation. Hey Liz, when you look at the trade, especially in the treasury trade over the last couple of weeks, it does feel like investors have gotten religion to some extent in terms of what the fed officials and FOMC members have been saying. So what do you think our audience has to kind of note when it comes to that treasury trade? I mean, right now, I'm looking at a two year note. It's off its highs of the day. But we're still at 4.8. What is it that they need to understand about the action that we've seen over the last week or so? Well, you know, it's interesting you bring that up because we were looking because like I said, this month has been brutal for bonds, right? The real just took off. Remember how January was also the everything rally, everything reality, including bonds. And I remember one investment manager saying to me, it was like January 25th. Well, if we could stop the year now, I've had a great year, you know? Unfortunately, it doesn't work that way, right? But so I think, you know, remember all the street analysts call this the year of the bond, right? Things are better yields are better. So I don't think we want to write that off yet. This was a brutal beating this month, rates are very high, like you said, but what if it does prove the fed gets the 5 and a quarter 5 and a half and stops, inflation starts to come down. You know, 6 months time, things could be looking better. I don't think a lot of people who are bullish on bonds are willing to give up their kind of willing to basically take the pain for a while. That may not be true if this keeps up for another three 6 months, but for now, I think the bullish Bond people are saying, okay, yeah, I'm not doing so great now, but I do think it'll be better. I'm making some decent income. I don't think festival in the 6%, you know, they're in that camp, you know? So we'll see. Really quickly here Liz, the thing that I would love for you to help me be smarter on is the fed updating its basic model of understanding in like 30 seconds. Can you tell me, do you think that update was enough? Do they understand our current economy? Well, that's another $1 million question. Let's talk about their update on what they think the neutral rate is kind of that standard base rate where they're not adding stimulus or removing it. And they have an updated that yet. And a lot of people think it's higher now. So the fed's long run rate is like a two and a half. People in the market think, mmm um. It's a different world now that might be high or so that could be a game changer. So there are some questioning some of the fed's bottles. You know, the jury's out on who's right or if they adjust, but it's an open question. Yeah, there's a lot going on and certainly for the fed to have to kind of figure out Liz McCormick. You always figure out so much for us here. So appreciative. Liz McCormick, she's chief correspondent for global macro markets at Bloomberg news joining us via Zoom

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