Boris Johnson, Jeremy Corbyn Andrew Nicholas Sturgeon, Tories discussed on Coffee House Shots
Hello and welcome to coffee. Shot spectators daily in these days. David unto two weeks weeks now until polling day and the Tories are still in the lead and people this week which got Westminster. Very excited suggested the Tories had there been an election this this week. We've won a majority in the region of sixty eight however as phrases hasn't as Telegraph column as we discuss on this podcast. There was still plenty of time for the Tories to blow it and there are some early signs as if you look at the days ahead that there are some obstacles they are going to have to and we will now go free. There's various ones but I think to begin with. That's just took fast about Bruce. Johnson and television appearances and scrutiny. Now openly on Thursday night we had a situation from abortions did not do the channel climate leaders debate instead. The Tories did organize a stunt of the rain. which went some way too distracting from this by sending Michael Grove data trying to get onto the stage not being allowed to do so and now there's another on about whether or not? Boris Johnson is going to face Andrew. Neil in the one to one lead interviews interviews every other mainly has agreed to this. And there's some talk that Berge can be bought from gay on the Angie safer until he agrees to this phrase raise. It has a slight with a twenty seventeen. Doesn't it in terms of Theresa. May's reluctance to go on. Various stages do set piece events. Boris Johnson's since allies would say we'll actually know how many things he's done already but if you take them in succession is not the best. Look no it's notes. I mean I do understand logic nick for a prime minister not doing these debates they tend to benefit the Challenger and the prime minister is ahead in the polls he would say look. What do I have to gain by stepping into this arena arena? I can also understand the logic saying look you journalist. You just want these debates for your own entertainment in your TV ratings. It's not to do with democracy. He is just all about you but the thing is we are. We are with these campaigns. The leadership debates have become a fairly big staple elections now over the course of his decades since David Cameron introduced them ten years ago. No so far. We've seen leaders debates. I haven't been that eliminating but we had the one to one interview and Renew Jeremy Corbyn Andrew Nicholas Sturgeon that were lot more illuminating allowed for follow up questions wherever leaders will through through the mincer. And it's always interesting to see how they fare. It looks a little bit cowardly. I'm afraid to save for Boris Johnson. To say okay let Corbin go through that Minster. Let Nicholas George. But I am not going to do. It's because I just didn't fancy it and the risk is that it can lead to the impression that you're taking the election victory for granted that you are adopting a safety first strategy and that you don't really think you've got to go out there to earn the votes of the people who are thinking thinking of you to support. IMA general election. The risk is that could backfire embarrassed that he looks lazy for looks complacent and he looks as if he's afraid of offer scrutiny. Rivals subjected themselves to James During the leadership contest. Boris Johnson did have a one on one interview. Angie Neal he still became came leader at Torrey Party and prime minister. So what's the difference in approach here. I think he was scheduled quite late in the process off. Most of the post-war it's out but I think he should do the interview for the simple reason this which is both Jeremy Corbyn and Nicholas Sturgeon had a tough time holding tweet but it was much less bound for Nicholas version than it was Jeremy Corbyn cushy made not perfect but much better fister defending her position and and then he wanted to be promised with United Kingdom. You'll be confident that you can get a half an hour interview defending you'll positions on a whole series issues. I mean these half an now in twos expose in a way. Were leaders debate. Don't because they allow forensic follow ups is weakness in position. You couldn't watch the android into into Nicholas Sturgeon and not. Come away from it thinking the S&P don't really have a proper answer to for currency question. You can watch animals into Jeremy Kuban. No come away the whole series the Ford about the fact that Germany doesn't seem to realize that government bonds government debt. But he seems deeply confused about what he would do a situation where you can take out what you could potentially take out the leader of terrorist groups such as Islamic state and that he he doesn't point you obviously doesn't really realize the scale and the gravity of the problem that we talked about Anti Semitism awesome. News is how the Rings not apologize but he denied that the problem has got worse since he became leader. I think Boris Johnson should be confident that he he is standing on a decent decent a pretty decent perspectives to become prime minister. And the only thing you can defend that perspectives in a half an hour or two and tonight we will not be seeing Boris Johnson on our television screens either but this is a preplanned non-attendance in the BBC's multi-party debate and you pay labour and the Tories sending on representatives who you need the Kuban Johnson's. Rebecca Long Baby Food Labor anniversary soon. ACT The conservatives James because leaders are not involved in this it does feel as though this is is perhaps less high stakes but you think there is still important in a debate like this for the Tories and is holding the line. There are so many parties in this he did in. The sense is going to be difficult for anyone to really is home to win a seven way debate similar similarly if we the other night the the Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn it was quite scrappy because of the format. I mean this is going to be even crappier because you're going to have seven people trying to speak up and make their case that points. I think the a big event is that is this time next week when we have the final. Boris Johnson. Jeremy Corbyn head to head debate on the BBC of the remaining TV debate as indefeasibly. Yeah that is the big the big moment say phrase of what else can go wrong. In the time we have left because he looked that Emma peephole this week yes yes. The Tories strategy in the mountains north seems to be paying off in winning some of these seats but the fractions at tiny as you look at some of these percentages one percent hair in that could really change a labor. She GonNa take these seats now. Professor Joan Curtis is that he thinks Arizona and is chance at being at Labor majority. But that's not talking about a Labor minority government propped up by SMP. Well it's funny. How often near zero percent? Chances Come true. I remember in twenty 2016 Princeton University. This model which is had predicted the two thousand twelve. US presidential election correctly and therefore there was a one percent chance of Donald Trump winning which he did Vernon Twenty fifteen. You had populous. Who came along with with what? They called the predictor. Not just an opinion pollster. They said it was lots of socio. Economic mkx data plugged into it. And they calculate your abilities to a fraction of a decimal point so you would have said zero point. Five percent chance of David Ever Cameron winning a majority a couple of weeks later. And that's exactly what he did so I think we ought to remember that opinion. Pollsters are still trying to adjust adjust to the new voting patterns were seeing on both sides of the Atlantic and until they get at least two elections right. I think we should all be rather cautious about their claims to have invented new technology. That can get the next election right and in fact during the seven days it took you. You got to do this. Pools the Tory lead went down by. I think sixteen seats. They had to knock off until they got to sixty eight. It doesn't take that much more of this trend continuing for the Tour de Majority to evaporate and slip through the prime minister's fingers quite quickly Jamison in response to this. What do you think the Conservative's strategy for the final part of the campaign is going to be doubling down or is it trying to actually change the pivot or pivoting different approach? Anything's everything's trying to make sure people too so I mean the first bit of us. Russia is desperate attempt to get Donald Trump. Not to say anything on his visit. Here today are very telling the boy shorts in this morning was basically saying to Donald Trump. Please stay out of our election. Remember how Barack Obama's intervention in two thousand sixteen referendum campaign backfire. I mean this was very public. Diplomacy please please. Don't say anything I I mean to feed them. We noticed that he was developing campaign cold. which could be the best defense given trump's Germanophobia against trump trying to get too close to the NATO summit offering the Tory message? The campaign is going to be we've gotTA GET Brexit. Don's country can move forward. That was a female surprising. Exactly the vows the theme of their press conference today and also it's going to be very like two thousand fifteen and this is where the you Goalpara. It provides them a problem which is going to be. It's I've Ashura hung parliament and if it's a hung parliament it's going to be the scholars nationalist calling the shots. Do you want that. I think we're GONNA see those. These two messages driven home relentlessly in the final week get brexit. Done is enough though. I mean sure that we never the BREXIT party voters. But what if they've really squeeze he's as much as they're going to add to that particular action and that right now as twenty seventeen people were thinking of domestic questions and finding which recent of much to say because I think they have have a decent argument but if next year is about another referendum. You won't get. I mean the twenty messages at its strongest when it's get brexit done so we can do X. Files Not oh hearing much of excellent point manifesto and say will would all you panting Steve because it has been but I've asked remarkable for its lack of ambition in many areas. Though I think the reason the manifest they seem so ambitious is exam done quite a lot in the first hundred days on an H.. Schools funding all. Those things. I think is interesting is wealth remembering how how the narrative changes which is a few weeks ago. Everyone was talking about. How can a fiscally reckless the Tories were? We've always big spending commitments now. Everyone's run saint by very ambitious in porn is because Labor's commitments all so bold so out there. Everything else pales in comparison Fraser. Razer is one potential issue. There isn't that because yes the narratives changed if the touristic more steak. Describe one of the things that leave every tapped into the referendum. Was this this idea of change and if the to restart look like perhaps not to us twenty seventeen the stable choice. That isn't necessarily going to get your high turn of non natives. People who don't know mediate t gallon. Vote for the Conservative Party. Your remember Lynton crosby saying in the two thousand fifteen campaign with the Tories triumphed..