United States, International Monetary Fund, Brexit discussed on All Things Considered
Tuesday with a restatement of our every now, and then observe -ation that this is a global economy, and we are kind of stuck with it. Come. What may and when what is coming is generally good razzing growth in economic optimism. Good fun. When what's coming is less growth in some small degree of economic pessimism. Will you gotta play the Hendra dealt right? And the global economic hand we are being dealt today comes to us from the International Monetary Fund. IMF get it which that with its latest forecast on the global economy growth. Yes. But less of it. The third forecast of slower growth in six months. Peanut is a columnist for the doctor welcome to the program. Thank you, you called the global economy this morning, some of your commentary. You said were too delicate moment how come why? So Goba growth is projected slow down to three point three percent and twenty nineteen. Then we expected a coveting twenty twenty and you know, that covers precarious. So that's this is a delicate moment because if any of the downside Ristori worry about TV lies, the recovery that we expecting a main come about. Okay. Why are you expecting covering if it's if it's precarious seems like a gutsy call the make well, we set the scene is a substantial amount of policy commendation around the world. I mean, all of the major central banks have shifted to a more accommodative stands, we've seen China Putin, fair amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus. We certainly seeing some improvement in trade tensions between US and China compared to twenty eighteen so all of those factors. You know would help a growth going forward and weeks. See some recovery's stressed economies that Tina took. So that's where focused is coming from. So we've got low rates the accommodative policy that you mentioned, but we do still have the specter of no deal, Brexit, or whatever's going to happen over there. We have ongoing U S China trade talks, which again who knows what's happened over there. Get me then to your to your downside risk that you mentioned unavo- main downside risk remains in his collation injury. Tensions of you know, maybe with other countries, you know, the sectors like autos, we would like to see a resolution of Brexit with an agreement. That's not a naughty Brexit. I mean, these would be some of the important policy missteps to be voided. Let me get a little more specific. Are you talking American trade policy movement here we are talking about? Yes of the US China trade tensions. We can growth weakened investments. Reduced business confidence. So the question is what happens going forward from the US side from any retaliation. Which is why we you know, we say that this is a delicate moment in his opponent for policy makers to avoid missteps limiters since you mentioned central banks and listeners will hear elsewhere in the program about about the impedance of central banks. And since you lead with in your answer. How critical are central banks and the proper functioning of to the to the future health of global economy. I mean, central Bank of policies of these taken recently the independence of the central Bank are all hugely important for the health of the global economy, the played an important role in reducing downside risks that were showing up to the end of twenty eighteen and so it is important that they remain independence their data driven and the the policies are well communicated. So you've been on the job since I January you liking it so far. Been a lot of fun than great to get governor. She's the new chief economist at the International Monetary Fund with global forecast this morning. Thanks for your time. I appreciate it. Thank you so much. She mentioned a no deal Brexit, by the way, without getting into the current state of play over in the UK because frankly, one loses track US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said this today in congressional testimony, quote, I think at this point secretary said we need to be prepared for a hard Brexit as a very realistic outcome of quote, hard Brexit, of course, is a no deal Brexit again. Who knows what the what over there on Wall Street today? Honestly, kind of nobody was really wild about that. I am if forecast we'll have the details when we do the numbers. A follow of now story last week. I guess about the most profitable company on.