Iowa vote Monday could be a wake-up call


Is coming you know we've got a little presidential election going on here Democrats are choosing their candidates David can you believe or not less than a week away from the Iowa caucus no I cannot but sure we do can be used the mind is fully shortly and we'll have a winner well as as many politicians including the former president George Herbert Walker bush said you know momentum is everything big mo we used to call it and if you're looking at the polls right now big mo seems to be with Bernie Sanders in Iowa doesn't yeah well what were you needing a lot of polls he's gaining in polls where he's not leaving and you know he clearly is in a good position special considering that his backers of some of the most enthusiastic factors of all the democratic primary candidates in terms of you know how loyal his supporters are unwilling they are not show up for him so easily he's in a good place if he's speaking speaking at just the right time obviously with a with a clock is you have to be a little cautious because they can be hard to gauge all yeah even four years ago not withstanding that all of the polling that showed trump ahead in the Republican primary was correct told me we can cruise still managed to win Iowa are good for points and that had to do with you know you can get the right kind of not quite showing up is on the final hole right in in so little bit of caution because offices are weird but I think we have seen enough data to know that this is Bernice race to lose as much as it is anybody funny yeah you know you use a phrase that I've been using a lot it it it certainly seems like Bernie's race to lose it and I've always sort of been seen that way David record considering three years ago he's wrong he ran in his primary caucus situation for the Democrats in all fifty states and came a whisker away from beating Hillary Clinton a formidable candidate I mean he's got the experience he's already got the infrastructure and god knows he's got the fund raising power I it's always been Bernie's to lose well what do argument but there's another way you can look at it which is that four years ago if you want to register a vote against Hillary Clinton you only have one choice okay and when you look at how the Republican primary we shaping up especially in as you got in the spring a lot of Democrats could not imagine Donald Trump feeding Hillary Clinton and so there was all sorts of security and all sorts of reasons for voting for Bernie Sanders and primary that may not have had to do with the fact he was Bernie Sanders out here he does well in Iowa and New Hampshire is the polling day suggestion court and we're going to see is the fact of burning a lot of staying power that he was able to achieve success by not simply being the anti Hillary candidate in the exact primary and you know how far finance regularly sentiment Kerry people so that's not nothing yeah it would mean is just a lot more to Bernie and that he was a lot more established on the left even though they had so many of those services I'm hearing some conventional wisdom David Drucker within the Democrat pundits that yeah okay of Bernie when's the caucuses that's that's kind of a thing at we expected to win New Hampshire even if he wins those two it's not really what those two states are reflective of the Democrat electorate and really things matter once you get down to a larger more African American state like South Carolina is there something to that or I mean I I'm sorry if you win Iowa and New Hampshire good lord you've got momentum there at that point well look in the in the modern nominating air all all since Iowa meeting should be seen as saying that any Democrat who has one island of Hampshire has gone on to win the nomination yeah it's a let's not minimize what that kind of momentum guys in terms of how voters in a primary that haven't voted yet look at candidates when you start to win you look like a winner and that often attracts a lot of support when you start to lose you look like a loser and people are just not as enthusiastic about you and they all of a sudden question whatever electability hat having said that there are different electoral compositions and some of the states and it's possible that the race is still unsettled such that somebody else and rise in you know even in twenty twelve I will saying we saw a Republican primary that was unsettled because nobody ever felt that thrilled with the front runner so even after I met Ronnie finish what appeared to be first even a close you know by a William my whiskers Santorum yeah in one New Hampshire the Los out Caroline any loss of pretty gamble it right when voters there said no forget it and then he was able to recover in Florida because of the way the schedule was that year and and news agency mistakes and in the debate so you never know all right so do not which brings us your latest column which I find to be a fascinating angle on this whole thing let let's stipulate for a moment the Bernie Sanders does do as well as it looks like and he actually is lined up to be the nominee for the Democrats this seems to be a bridge too far for never trump Republicans the I find that fascinating everybody have wanted someone like I wanted to see what they had to say about thirty standard you know I think will focus on a lot of the in a quorum call never troubled public invent that some people think about they see on TV they think you know about they think about people that have become meeting in their eyes rather flexible ideological but I talked to a lot of these people that are not on television and a lot of them you know whatever you think about the position on trial yeah consider themselves very philosophically conservative and they have a lot of issues with trump but they're not really interested in replacing in their eyes one problematic radical for another with a whole host of different problems so they don't really want to turn on one set of problems for another and so yeah there are limits to their never trump ism I think the larger issue that I try to get you in the stories well is that if you even for these this month of people that want trump to use they just don't think on top of it all Bernie Sanders is going to be in which swing voters in the states are going to decide the presidency and therefore they don't see the point anyway if they think it's it presents from a choice of voting for somebody that is equally problematic just differently cell and on top of that won't even wait and that's just for them a double whammy so I I'm curious what the what then do they do did they sit it out completely do they actually vote for Donald Trump rather than go for about socialist or do they try to find a third party candidate well I I think I think Bernie Sanders who the nominee you're not going to see them do much of anything organizational all right because I even to the extent that you know they got some money behind them in a few different groups which they do which you know in a targeted way could be impactful they're not gonna wanna help Bernie Sanders there's not really an Avenue to see trump I I think that they would hold but not necessarily do anything about they would hope that maybe some centrist third party candidate mergers on you know looking at trump and Bernie is both too extreme but I think they're trying to figure out what it is they do they were telling me yesterday at least some of them that we don't really know what we did we would suggest would after Josh but they're not sure what they

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