Chaos and calculation: Brexit


Stay. Prime minister. There would be chaos if the United Kingdom were to crash out of the European Union without a proper divorce deal, but after months of widespread worry about that, no deal Brexit. It seems to have been avoided for now. Anyway. Commissioned Mr Speaker, I would like to make statements on the government's work to secure withdrawal agreement that can command the support of this house the deadline to agree a deal with the EU is in just over a month. Prime Minister Theresa may has told parliamentarians that if they don't vote in favor of the agreement she's already negotiated. She will empower them to vote for a delay to Brexit. So the United Kingdom one only leave without a deal on the twenty ninth of March. If there is explicit consent in the house for that outcome. Avoiding no deal scenario is one of the few aspects of Brexit for which there is a strong parliamentary majority that is not the case for Mrs Maes own deal, which he's still pushing to get through what's happening in this country. At the moment is that the government is losing control of events power is slipping away from the prime minister, quite news with that power is going Adrian Wooldridge rights badges are column about British politics. He was in the house of Commons for MRs maith announcement. That morning. She came to the house of Commons straight away from a cabinet meeting. We should be a very tense cabinet meeting in which number of members of our cabinet confronted her and said, you must extend you must take new deal off the table mustn't be the case that will be allowed to crash out of the EU without a deal, and that has been part of our negotiating position. So taken off the table was a huge embarrassment and reduction of power so power slipping away from the prime minister. So where does this leave the timetable is we understand what happens next? Well, the return things going on in the Commons of the moments. I mean, the atmosphere is electric the atmosphere is is furthered people in an extreme state of high political frenzy tying the government's hands by seeking commandeer. The auto paper. She's rather discourteous. The prime minister is delivering a statement. It should be and colleagues. No, I'm just under strong, feelings comics from the record. Everybody will get things going on his business made his speech chaos on the one hand and calculation on the other hand people trying to say what does this really mean? And I could see the members of the European research group, the hardliners that all in little plump all discussing as she was speaking. What do we do about this? What does it mean? So everybody was trying to think what does it mean mean what does it mean what she promised was. There will be votes on March twelfth he will vote on Mrs Maes deal that failed last time by thirty. It's very difficult to turn it around on the thirteenth. There will be votes on whether to accept new deal that will almost certainly there is a majority in the house against new deal then on the fourteenth whether to apply for an extension to the needing. Brexit day March the twenty ninth I think that would come onto majority in the house. So what are the important things? That's happened. This week is that Britain is unlikely believing the European Union on Brexit. They March the twenty ninth. It'll be leaving two months perhaps after that whatever the the extension if it comes to that do not find ourselves in the same position again close to that date. Absolutely. We do and it does seem that we're gridlocked that the sides of roughly the same size. They can't get a majority. And so that's probably the case. Both leaders have lost control of their parties or losing control of their parties were fighting desperately to keep control of that party's against very powerful forces and Theresa May con- controller cabinet. She can't control the lower ranks of her government, and she can't control her party. And that's also being strangely mirrored on the labor side where Jeremy open is also suffering from internal rebellions of significant rebellions and is desperately trying to reassert control. But at the expense of making very big concessions. His critics. Amid all this the labor party dropped its own breaks at bombshell, Jeremy Corbyn. The labour leader has said if Labour's owned Brexit withdrawal plan is rejected a vote today. He'll threw his weight behind public vote a second referendum. Mr. Corbin is still smarting from the resignation of nine MP's last week. They left the party in frustration at his Brexit strategy and its failure to tackle anti semitism on the face of labor who switched position to be in support of a second referendum. But that would only happen after Mrs Maes deal passes in parliament and macelroy senior editor of the economist. And one of our chief breaks apologists is skeptical that Mr. corbin's announcement has much substance. Jeremy cool been moved his party position this week to woods a second referendum quite clearly his shadow. Brexit secretary said that remain would be on the ballot paper, which is the big question for a lot of people who want this. However, that's not a commitment that we've. Yet heard unambiguously from Jeremy Corbyn himself, so to your mind than what's materially changed. Should we consider this week as the week that the the prospects for a second referendum really changed? I think we should consider as the week when the labor party was no longer able to straddle the positions as Abe liaise. It had done here to four Jeremy Kuban doesn't really want to second referendum wants a general election. He said it over and over again, but he has conceded that the emotion in his party, particularly with this breakaway group in mind that they want hit words second referendum from him. So you could see things moving gently not direction. Unfortunately, he hasn't spelled out. Whether it's the second referendum that most people mean, which is the woman that says, oh, we going always staying does the outcome of all this does the outcome for Brexit matter beyond that or is this just damage control by party leaders. I think it's to party leaders discovering, the Hoed way that Brexit is a powerful fragmentation of what they considered to be their power base so labor you're finding a leader from the left of the party who was trying to build a big momentum as he calls his movement sweeping away. The conservative government is finding that he has difficulties to unite his party around the Brexit question on the conservative side. You have a prime minister who's doubled down on getting do with the EU and eventually getting herds Dobbin, really hard core. Eurosceptics own booed and finding that process much harder. That superglue is not sticking. It's not so sticky on the other side only the two leaders to very different muse same fundamental problem.

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