Inflation, Bitcoin, and Monetary Policy With Lyn Alden

The Pomp Podcast
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Automatic TRANSCRIPT

Lynn thank you so much for doing this. Hey thanks for having me absolutely. Let's maybe start with for those that don't know you maybe give a quick thirty seconds on just what you spend all day doing and then kind of your perspective with the research service that you've got which i think is absolutely fantastic and high suggest people go subscribe to but how do you kind of think of your day to day role and what you spend your time focused on mostly research so my background is initially an engineering and i went into engineering management kind of blended into finance and then now i i work fulltime. Doing investment research as independent analysts as most of my time is research books on individual companies as well as physically major sectors and overall what's happening in the macro space so inflation policy that sort of thing got it and so when you look where we are today it feels like the fed is the most important person in the market and kind of their monetary policy decisions. Some of the fiscal policy decisions that are being made as well. How do you kind of create a framework to evaluate what's happening and what the impact of that will be in the future. Is there a specific framework that you use. The closest thing after a framework is the concept of the long-term debt cycle popularized by radio. And so. that's the idea that you know we go through these five. Ten year business cycles With with rising debt. And you have a recession and then you you go into next cycle but if you string a bunch of those together we actually seen is that. Each cycle doesn't reset to the previous one in terms of debt or industry. Since what you get it's higher and higher debt as a percent of gdp over time and you get lower lower interest rates and that that that happens for decades until industry rates run into roughly zero or some cases mildly negative and so they run out of that policy. Ruin up to pull in other types of tools and so the last time we were in this type of virement in most countries was actually back in the nineteen forties. And so you know. We have a lot of analog to that time obviously with different technology at things like that. So that's that's actually my main probably a model framework But then you know more more tactically. I'm just kind of looking at. What are the bottlenecks in the system. policymakers to do something. and so. because we're at the end of a long term death cycle. We're in a very macro heavy environment. And some of things that people expect the past say thirty four years are behaving very differently this environment that that's how i approach

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