Nevada, San Diego, Carson discussed on Bet The Board
Rolls here. Because Logan and our numbers, Nevada would be minus two and a half on a neutral, San Diego state plays its home games about two hours away from campus. The line moved through zero is not a ton, but you're still looking at like a 5 point move here based on where we would have this game versus where it is. It's very difficult for me. But. You know, the information I'm getting is that San Diego state is the side, even though it doesn't necessarily mesh with the number. I've watched these teams probably more than I'm willing to admit, obviously living out here on the West Coast paying a little bit more attention to the mountain west and a slightly favorable time window late at night. And the one thing I will say from Nevada, they find themselves behind the down and distance an awful lot. And it's Carson's strong trying to make plays. I think against the defense that can be as complex and variable as San Diego state finding yourself in third and 7 more often than not will not be a recipe for success. They're in the 32nd percentile on first and ten this year for Nevada. That shouldn't be the case. When you have an NFL caliber starting quarterback, but when you're unable to run the football and you've had issues in protection, I think those things can rear their ugly head when you step up in class, even against this Aztecs defense that hasn't exactly been tested to your point by a legitimate living breathing passing attack other than Jake hayner. One other thing I want to bring up and this is only from watching the game. I haven't found an injury update I haven't seen it on a screen anywhere else. I'm very curious if Cole Turner, the number two option in Nevada's passing attack and the safety blanket for Carson strong will actually be available for this game. He was the recipient of a cheap shot at targeting. You can call it what you will. He was really unable to get himself up off the field under his own power late in that game against the Spartans. And Romeo Dobbs hasn't looked like the same dynamic receiving threat. This year, as we've seen in the past, if Turner's out of the mix and not able to exploit the middle portion of the field, I know it's a skill position player in college football, but for me, pain, that would be part of the reason that this number is slowly leaking out, despite anything major suggesting it should as far as the numbers are concerned. And you were spot on with your initial assessment. Nevada right now, 119th in the country. On first and second down. So they are not bypassing third down in early downs. They're actually 80th in early down EPA. We know they can't run. Nevada a 105th, an EPA per Russia. Again, this just comes down to Carson strong, being able to move the ball through the air, Dobbs doesn't look like himself, cold Turner, potentially dealing with an injury. Not the greatest matchup. So the whole game is on cars and strong and how this plays out. And so that's a difficult way. To kind of lean on a team here when it's just quarter. It's a very important position, and he's got the ability at this level to give San Diego state some issues through the air, but if that is not humming, you can certainly see why San Diego state matchup wise is catching some steam here. Yeah, and I think that's the biggest difference too. I know a lot of people go, well, look, you know, San Diego stay really struggled when they faced the only vertical passing attack in Fresno state. The big difference in that matchup was you had Fresno state fans that actually attended it was a 50 50 split. I'm not sure I can say the same about the wolf pack. But more importantly, for Fresno state, they're significantly more balanced. They had two capable running backs and O Ronny rivers didn't play in that game. But they were able to run the foot, use the pass to set up the run. Nevada is going to look to try and throw the ball as much as any team in the country, especially when you look at how their ratio of run to pass is. I mean, this is a team that throws the ball well above the national average. We know it's an array type attack, but they've also dealt with protection issues, not great for a quarterback whose knee often looks to your point like it's being held together by spit bubble gum and a little bit of paper mache. So fun game worth watching on the West Coast, ten 30 eastern on Saturday night. You can follow paint on Twitter at pain inside or I'm Todd firm and follow me there. The podcast at bet the board pod. And if you haven't already done so, YouTube dot com search bet the board, subscribe to the betta board pregame show. There's often times a lot of interesting content there that we don't include in our Monday Wednesday or Thursday podcast. So you always want some of the best betting nuggets. So you're perfectly armed by the time you go to the window. We do have one final order of business pain as we do on every single Wednesday and Thursday podcast. It's identifying a best bet in investment opportunity somewhere in the college football landscape. What do you have in store for us this coming weekend? It's ugly. It's in the Big Ten. And it's going to be a meat grinder. But let's go with rotation number one 27. The Minnesota gophers plus the 5 and a half. And I don't know if you've been paying attention to the screen Todd. But while you were eloquently leading into one of the games I was a pig and we took the 6 out your way. You son of a bitch. I couldn't even get that. I couldn't even get down on this. I played there. I had to beat you the punch. You know, I'm waiting. I'm waiting and watching because their app doesn't actually open till a little bit later. So I had about four or 5 minutes to go. And then I saw that number disappeared. I wasn't going to say anything on air, but thanks. I really appreciate it. Who needs enemies when you have friends like pain inside or beating you to numbers? So let's take the widely available 5 and a half here. When I look at this game, you're looking at an Iowa team that is starting to turn into the team we thought they were based upon underlying metrics. They came out of the year just on fire and winning games they probably weren't winning in the box score. They're doing it on a lot of smoke and mirrors. You win a game like Penn State that's a game that Sean Clifford there you're going to lose by double digits at home. We've seen what this team looked like the last month or so and it's basically an underperformance on the road at northwestern last week where you win by 5 is a double digit favorite. Spencer petris is out, in comes Alex Padilla. If you looked at him, kind of caught northwestern off guard last week, but passed the initial shock phase. Padilla had a negative EPA per pass in the third and fourth quarters. He looked more like Vicente Padilla in the second half than he did a capable college football quarterback. Obviously, this is a rivalry game Minnesota crap the bed last week, but they have shown up on the road and some interesting spots this year. Their defense has been fantastic. 30 33% rushing success rate allowed that top 20 in the country. Iowa has kind of mentioned the offensive line, not quite getting the push. So that's a spot where if you're down to Padilla and if you're Padilla and you're not starting over Spencer Peter, it's probably tells you his ability. And so it becomes a Tyler goods in game. Can you stop the run Minnesota is equipped to do that? And I think in a game where you're looking at a total of 37 taking points is at the utmost premium. And so I think this has some value in the number. I think there's some match ups to like here as well. You have the more capable quarterback. You have the better ground game. You have the better run defense. And you're getting points with a total of 37 in a rivalry game. Just feels like the right spot here for Minnesota to bounce back after the Illinois loss..