Bridgewater Associates, Cleveland Fed, Kathleen Hayes discussed on Bloomberg Best


Bridgewater associates puts it. The fed and the government together gave an enormous amount of debt and credit and created a lurch forward. It a giant lurch forward and created a bubble. And now they're putting on the brakes. Okay, so now we're going to create a giant lurch backward. Dahlia is speaking there as the fed keeps indicating it is not going to pull its punches when it comes to fighting inflation. And Denise, we got some of those indications this week from Loretta master head of the Cleveland fed. Here she is with Bloomberg's Kathleen Hayes. We need to do more. And we have not seen inflation move back down. And we need to see that because leaving inflation where it is, if we continues, there's a higher chance that it does become embedded in the economy and affecting pricing decisions of firms and also getting into the psyche of households. And that has long-term negative connotations for the economy. So this is a question. We know that it's time to continue on and persevere and bring the funds right up. We know that we're going to have to keep it there for a time until we see inflation beginning to come back down because we really want to make sure it's on a sustainable downward path to 2%. So if you remember the dot plot in the median path from the last SEP in September, we're very much aligned in terms of where we think policy needs to get to. Okay. Well, in fact, after 300 basis points of rate hikes, you know, it seems that the terminal rate, I want to ask you, does it look like maybe it's going to end up having to be higher than you thought. Do you have any confidence now in even knowing what the terminal raids claim to be people, many people have talked about something as high as 5%. Well, we have to wait until we see how the economy evolves. This is the assessment process that we're going to be going through the end of this year and into next year is we want to basically get inflation on this downward path, right? Labor markets continue to be very strong. We have seen some moderation there. We have seen some moderation on the product side of the economy. And it really is. Now we're going to calibrate going forward. But right now, the funds rate is just approaching a neutral of funds rate. And we really need to get it above neutral for a time if we want to put inflation on the downward path and we do. So again, we're we put out the dot plots, which give our best estimate at the moment of what's appropriate policy. But we're going to be doing this assessment of how fast is man moderating health quickly is supply maybe picking up and our price pressure is coming down. And that will be the job as we go forward in this challenging time. Well, the message from the fed seems to be all the comments lately that the idea is to move quickly, front row of the rate hikes, get to a four and a half to four and three quarters. And then see how that's affecting inflation. But to clarify, does this mean that once you get to that point when you think you're at neutral when it's four and a half to four and three quarters that you're going to pause even with the funds rate well below the rate of inflation because that's where it's likely going to be. Right. Well, I think we're going to see inflation come down next year. So when I'm thinking about how far above a neutral rate do we have to go. And I do think we're going to have to be in restricted territory. Remember, as inflation comes down, we're becoming more restrictive. So again, this is the assessment we have to do. So I think the appropriate path is we continue to raise rates a bit more. So we get it up to that level where we're positive in terms of the real funds rate. Based on expected inflation over the next year, then we wait and assess data coming in, but not only the backward looking data and the lag data, but also the information we're getting from the street in terms of Main Street, right? Real consumers, real households, real businesses telling us how they're thinking about the economy. What about there's a big difference right now between the PCE, which is your main target. And the CPI. So can you continue to target the PCE and a nor the CPI given how different they are, especially when you're trying to figure out when you've gotten to not a negative funds rate, but a positive funds rate. When we look at a lot of different measures of inflation are target, our inflation target is formulated in terms of the headline PC inflation. So including all components, we want that to be 2%. That's our target. But when we're assessing where inflation is going, we look at the CPI. We look at the underlying measures in terms of the median CPI inflation, the trim means CPI, to mean PCE. And those give us the core measures. They give us an idea of where inflation is going. So the gap is really reflective of just the weights of the components and the indices, but they're all telling us right now that inflation is high and it's likely to remain high. And that was Loretta mester head of the Cleveland fed with Bloomberg's Kaplan haze. And coming up real estate billionaire

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