Leatherwood, Raiders, Lester Cotton discussed on Bet The Board
But where I'm going with this is on paper, the Raiders offense looks like the hottest girl on Planet Earth. We're going to find out if she has a heart because the Raiders offensive line freaks me out. And I think it's going to cause potential consistency issues and not allow car in those three elite weapons to reach its highest possible ceiling. Colton Miller made a massive leap last year played to an elite level graded out the third best tackle among those with a thousand snaps. The data that I have hinted at suggests, again, you can scheme around one good offensive lineman as a defense. The other four projected starters are John Simpson, Andre James Lester cotton and Alex we. And I can go right left to right here. If you're looking at John Simpson, you E graded out 72nd best guard out of 88 qualifiers last season. Andre James is an undrafted center from UCLA. And I will give him some credit. He's improved each of the last three seasons. But even with that improvement, he graded out the 21st best center last year. Lester cotton is an undrafted free agent from 2019. He's played 5 total snaps in the regular season through 437 preseason snaps, which is where Lester cotton does most of his work. He's graded out below average against guys likely finding other types of work. And then there's Alex leatherwood at right tackle, a position through four games as a rookie he proved he couldn't play, so he was moved to guard. Leatherwood played more than 900 snaps between garden tackle last season. Now I get it. He can certainly improve. We've seen maturation from young offensive linemen, sometimes they get a little bit overwhelmed. It would be difficult to be worse. But leatherwood allowed a 9% pressure rate. He was credited with 38 blown blocks forth most between all guards and tackles with at least 280 snaps leatherwood graded at a 169th of a 174 players. The crazy part about leatherwood two and we'll see exactly what the Raiders roster looks like when they meet league limits at 53. There was talk early on in camp that this guy was going to be one of the players that could potentially be cut because this current regime has no loyalty to a player that everyone thought was largely overdrafted going in the top 20 a season ago. So he's going to be an interesting name to keep tabs on if the Raiders happen to have a surprise there and leatherwood is out of the mix. I don't see it happening, but I know that was widely rumored locally early on in training camp. They haven't found anybody else. But it ultimately comes down to protecting Derek Carr. And that's going to be vital if Adams Waller and Renfro are going to play it peak. You look last year, car was pressured at the 11th highest rate among qualifying quarterbacks. The offensive line, again, is projecting to be worse. The schedule of passing defenses isn't projected to be daunting, but goes from 7th easiest to above average. And then last year, you look at car a great out 27th among 40 qualifying quarterbacks when pressured, his success rate dipped 21% completion rate 21%, EPA fell off a cliff. Again, when you project ahead, it wouldn't appear as though Derek Carr is going to have a complimentary ground game either. I mean, I like zamir white. But the run game isn't just going to dramatically improve here. The Raiders were 25th in schedule adjusted rush efficiency. The O line is worse and less leather would make that massive leap. I know Josh Jacobs has kind of been the scapegoat for a poor running offense. The raiders were 31st and run block win rate. So again, I like car, although high floor low ceiling, the three weapons are great. But what else is there here? The O line just makes me nervous. And I just think when you get and shoot outs and it's known you have to pass and you have that offensive line and you look at some of the defensive ends and just its own division I don't know. I don't necessarily see it. Yeah, I mean this is a team honestly and you think about this and of course you can't erase history, but how much different the narrative is coming into this year. Forget the Devante Adams trade, obviously. He plays a role, it has to be factored into the calculus here, but if it's a team that doesn't make the playoffs, happens to lose the Chargers and given how anemic they were offensively down the stretch, there are some major red flags and you did an eloquent job highlighting the primary concern, which is the building blocks of any offense along that offensive line. Now, unfortunately, for raiders fans, if the offense scuttle, I'm not sure that there is enough defensively to bail them out. Patrick Graham, the defensive coordinator tasked with trying to improve a defense. That is not finished in the top 15 and scoring defense since 2002, which was the last time they won their most recent playoff game. A season ago, they were 26 in points per game. They were 29th in takeaways. They were 32nd and red zone touchdown percentage allowed. You figure that number were regressed in a positive manner. But I mean, the numbers there for their red zone defense it was actually the worst efficiency mark of any team dating back to 2000, you look up and down this roster, yes, you bring in Chandler Jones to pair with max Crosby. You help out a little bit in the secondary with rocky sim, but you've also lost Yannick and gawk way Quentin Jefferson as well. Defensively, how do you even begin going about creating realistic expectations for what you're going to see from the silver and black? It's tough because I don't know what Patrick Graham is. He obviously comes from the Belichick floor as tree. So you like the pedigree for a defensive mind. Directionally his defensive principles are fine. He's going to mix some coverages, certainly more than Gus Bradley did. When Graham's operated at his own defenses, the pressure rates aren't very high and maybe that works with two elite defensive ends. To this point, though, Grimm has been a defensive coordinator in the last three seasons. One year in Miami two years for the Giants, 32nd, 19th and 18th and schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, not great. If I'm keeping things fair, there was a one year boost with the Giants last year going from 28th to 19th. And Graham certainly has far more premium talent than both those giant defenses.