La County, Orange County, Biden discussed on MSNBC Rachel Maddow (audio)
So what you're kind of looking at on this map here is sort of the standard democratic victory in california and i think to me. That's the key with this recall. If the recall is going to have any chance of succeeding he could talk about one particular demographic group or turn the big picture thing that has to happen for recall. supporters is. They need lots of people who voted for biden in twenty twenty who voted for newsom in twenty eighteen. Who voted for clinton in two thousand sixteen who typically vote democratic. They need a lot of them to vote for the recall. And so just take a look at this map right here. You see all these. See some red area. I should say the red areas you see on. The typical map and california tend to be rural smaller population areas. The big population centers are the blue areas on the states of for instance. I think this is one interesting way of looking at it. La county there's ten million people in la county right here. This is bigger than new jersey. This is twenty five percent of all the vote in the state of california is going to come out of la county. And if you just add an orange county to the south san diego there and the inland empire san bernardino and riverside. You just look at this sort of block votes here. That's more than half the votes. Statewide is gonna come out of this small pocket right here and again you see. It's all blue right now. So the challenge for recall supporters. Just for instance if you take orange county here you know. Biden won't orange county by nine points over. Trump trump got forty four points. Here if the recall is going to succeed tomorrow. And you're looking at a place like orange county tomorrow night. The number for the recall has got to be like at least sixty percent. It's got to be getting an accounting like orange sixty percent support and you could just look at that. If biden one at fifty three forty four over trump to get to sixty percent a lot of people who voted for biden a lot of democratic voters have got support this thing. So that's the big challenge recall. Supporters have to try to do this in one of the bluest states in the country. Save let me ask you about one. Other dynamic must be hard to model and must be hard to get quantitative about because it's a relatively new phenomenon which is on one side of the ledger. Republican leaders and republican trusted voices and indeed people in conservative media telling those core voters that the elections rigged that their vote will be counted that the system is stacked against them. There was a a lot of questioning at for the georgia senate races following november twenty twenty. There's a lot of questioning whether or not republican voters actually sat home because they had been essentially demoralized about the integrity of democracy because of the way that trump was questioning the presidential election result and a lot of speculation that that contributed to those democrats. Winning those two senate seats in georgia. Is that quantifiable dynamic. Since we're seeing the republicans hit that line so hard heading into the california recall tomorrow. There's a couple of things i mean. We will look tomorrow. We get final results whenever we do get the final results. We'll look and we'll see the core republican areas. How was turn out there relative to the to the to the republican areas. Was there sort of a disparity there. We ended up seeing that when we looked at georgia. One thing. I would say they would. California is unlike georgia. Every voter in the state was automatically registered. Voter was automatically mailed the ballot and they've been mailing them back in now for weeks so there is some question card core. Anti newsom pro recall folks. They already voted before. This latest sort of messaging you're describing started going out there. I think that's one variable but the other variable is if you're looking at polling a month ago and there wasn't a ton of it a month ago but there was a month ago the people across the country political observers. We're getting curious about this race. Because a month ago the recall was within a single digits in the polling there were even a couple of polls that had the recall leading and you could quibble with the methodology and all of them but there was a curiosity piqued when it came to california a month ago and much more recently a look at the polls. I just showed jim minute ago. The polls now almost uniformly showing solid for nuisance surviving so. I think there has been a shift in interest level in this election. It's really worked the democrats favorites against thirty point biden's state this is orange county. I should put the state back to thirty point biden. State's democrats started getting the word out. They started spending money. Started getting media coverage here and it does seem like that. Democratic electorate woke up in the last few weeks. At least that's what the polling is suggesting to us which is which is the gigantic astros. Jiang's over our heads damocles everyday. Now steve kornacki. Msnbc's political correspondent. Steve as always wonderful to have you on nights like this. Thank you so much all right much more to get to tonight. Stay with us. It.