Brian Maggio, W. Y. O. G., O. D. discussed on Brian Mudd


O. D. Y. for South Florida Brian Maggio starts right now sixty W. Y. O. G. we still don't really know the fundamental damage that's been done to the economy and with more than twenty million people losing their jobs over the span of a few months in this country that's going to take time to bring all of those jobs back if even all of those jobs come back yeah no kidding I mean that's one the things it's quite weird right now I mean even in our communities I'm still trying to figure out in some cases okay what businesses have decided they're not going to reopen yet versus how many businesses are never going to re open again because you're done it's hard to tell especially with a lot of small companies you take a look at the stock market even though the Dow off two hundred fifty points right now real time nasdaq it's ten more record heights technology doing it's a it's it's weird it's like what's real what isn't here to talk about this for Bankrate dot com it's Greg McBride Greg how you doing a good morning text randomly yeah so what Israel in this economy well you know the first you you mentioned the stock market and you E. L. D. it does seem counterintuitive how could we see such a rally in the stock market over the last you know two months two and a half months at a time when twenty million people are are losing their jobs it's important to recognize one is that the stock market is forward looking and so the market's moving now based on expectations for the economy and corporate earnings one two three quarters down the road we'll call that the stock market was tanking in late February and early March before it was even declared a pandemic right we were all still get not get in the car going to work every morning and yet the stock market was tanking at that point again market looking forward and saying Hey this this is this is gonna be a thing long before it became a thing economically that's right you know that's that's the first thing it also you mentioned that you know different businesses well I think one of the things here it's not so much the viability of the business model as much as it was the financial position of the the business entity if they didn't have the cash to tide them over they could be out of business before they get a chance to re open and that's why you've seen everything from support for airlines to you know lending programs designed to you know the paycheck protection program for small and mid size businesses is to just give them sustained those businesses given the cash the access to capital that they need for that period of time until they can we open the doors and inflated beyond lease return to something resembling normal business you brought up something that easy I mean it's not a macro economic type of question so there might not be an answer that you can provide but just curious to get your thoughts on if nothing else yeah so what some have been monitoring and I've heard this from not a bunch but you know a smattering of local business owners and then it goes along the lines of there being the risk reward of taking on a business or maintaining a business and that you know that is it it's hard I mean first for start ups you know barely half make it five years it's really hard to start a small business to be successful and then even when you are successful you know often that doesn't mean you're raking in the cash it means that you you managed to scrape out a living or keep the thing going and so when you're already operating in that kind of an environment and then you will see that all the sudden you could no fault of your own have governments just tell you you got to shut down your business and for whatever length of time and they're going to tell you even want to Cameri open again you know what you're able to do what capacity you know the last analysis I saw two thirds of restaurants that have reopened because of limited capacity are still losing money and those are the ones that made it through you know so it it's like all these terms and conditions that weren't part of the risk analysis going in and then you add into it curfews because of protests and everything else any idea about how we might see especially smaller businesses and entrepreneurs impacted because of a skewed risk reward dynamic that has come into focus here well I mean you know reverie point you make is I think you know spot on and and and yeah I mean what restaurant can can turn a profit at fifty percent capacity no not not too many and so what if they're running a fifty percent capacity now it's because they will probably run a hundred percent capacity pre pandemic you look at the downstream effects of after running a fifty percent capacity they don't need a hundred percent of the staff of the past people are getting the hours that they were getting they're not getting the you know the income that they were getting in so yeah there's definitely an economic ripple effect here yeah you know the effect on entrepreneurs I mean I hit the nail on the head I mean you know somebody that you know the kind of poor their their life's work into this business and you know not to overuse the word unprecedented because it's been used a lot lately but you're really just kind of have this unprecedented scenario that completely comes out alive field that's not part of that risk reward calculation I'll probably will be going forward but yeah this first time for everything right and I ate yeah absolutely I know he represented yeah I just as one example yeah perfectly viable businesses that were rocking and rolling pre pandemic that are now teetering on the edge of just completely gone out of business simply because of you know being in an environment where you're you're told to shut down go home stay home and you can't go back to doing business there's a profile on sixty minutes several weeks.

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