The great big coronavirus balancing act of Christmas 2020



I earned that we don't know about and christmas. Just gives us an implication of it and we won't find out for a few days and then you've got new year's eve after that and that could be another amplifying occasion if lift restrictions too early so i think there's no question the new south wales would not have lifted. Any of these restrictions has not been a christmas period. We've actually got a question from someone who lives in avalon. He's actually registered nurse and they're worried that a lot of people in avalon went and got tested too early that people went out and got tested as very much should have When the outbreak was first nine about but we know that the virus has an incubation period. That the tests accurate on sundays and not others. And this person's perhaps worried that they might not have picked up enough community transmission because people were so on the bull in going out and getting tested at the beginning. Was there's some truth to that and your regular listeners Cast would know from near the beginning of the pandemic How this spread and and the accuracy of the tests is that the closer you are to your infection date. When you first got the infection the more likely it is to be falsely negative and then the that rate of false negatives goes down and that its lowest in other words it said it's most accurate probably between the five day eight probably eight and then the false negative goes up again afterwards. So no question that when you test early there's going to be a false negative rate. I think that the time delay from the hairdresser to the elements high person being posted was three or four days. So it wasn't five says no question and that's why they say if you develop symptoms go and have the test again. Don't sit on it and also means if you're a close contacts they ignore the fact that you might be negative and they say you just got to be in isolation for fourteen days in quarantine for fourteen days regardless of the results because of the risk of a false negative. I think it's worth repeating what we've said before on this podcast which is dark white. Don't go to the edge of the restrictions the arneses on individuals as well to to be covered safe so if you are gathering to maintain a distance to maybe not be sharing food hand hygiene be outside. Where a mosque if you want. So that just really acknowledging that there is virus in the community especially in sydney and adjusting behavior accordingly. You're absolutely right and was absolutely cases. If you go back to march the beginning of this the community was ahead of both the state governments and the federal government. They were already social distancing In early march businesses were telling people to work from home before other restrictions were imposed. And it happened. On the northern beaches as well people start to isolate themselves socially distance and so on the only thing that works in this pandemic. If it's starting to take off again and local area is social distancing yes contact tracing is critical and the new south wales. It is controlling the situation. But if it if you don't know what's happening then. Social distancing is what you absolutely have to do and stop people mixing so that the virus has a chance to die out. Be the change. You want to see in the world and while talking about the northern beaches outbreak. We need just correct the record a little bit about the nurse that we spoke about yesterday as being we. We mentioned that as being a quarantine lake but it wasn't no turns. And i think the health department thought that that was corentin league as well but it turns out from genomics that it was actually linked. They don't know how yet but at list at the time of recording corona cast. They didn't they don't know how that this was a link. This was a link to the northern beaches so as a generally similar to the northern beaches fires not an overseas virus. Is that better or worse in terms of what the virus could be doing in the community. It might mean the less of a problem with a hotel quarantine and transportation than we were speculating on yesterday. That would be good. News settling good use. That a nurse hasn't caught it in a healthcare setting you. That's we really go to keep healthcare workers safe so the bad news is that this is. This is a spread outside the northern beaches. It's already spread to somebody else soon. Liberals another secondary or tertiary spread. We don't know how far that the chain goes with this particular person but it's already spread to somebody so the viruses out there in grisham metropolitan sydney so on this subject trekking spread. We were talking the other day about cue cards and now new south wales has said. You gotta use the service southwest. Qr code from the first of january of the oversight listening to corona cast. Because we recommend they could land them but seriously What you've got to really do in this situation. Really after the contact tracers very easy for them to get very tired and stretched and they're phoning up trying chase stein. Qr codes from lots of different providers. What happens with service. New south wales is. They can just interrogate that directly. You don't have to bother anybody but if you if they're using another provider phone up the cafe the kathy's got your there's all sorts of access problems and it just delays it by quite some time whereas service new south wales just straight to much more efficient.

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