On the latest edition of the balance of our podcast, a conversation with former council of economic advisers chair, Glenn Hubbard. On the outlook for the economy. What is uncertain? I think it's still likely that we will see a recession if the Federal Reserve pursues its path to get to 2% inflation relatively quickly, getting to four is straightforward through supply chain fixes, rental price inflation declines and so on. But given the wage pressures, I think the fed will have to destroy demand that I think equity markets haven't really priced that in yet. They're also huge implications for President Biden fiscally of the higher interest rates that are accompanying the fed's action. So we heard actually from Jay Powell, the chairman of the fed, saying exactly what you said, which is we've got a gap on the employment side where we've got a lot more jobs open than people seeking those jobs. We have to destroy some of the demand at least for labor. How do you go about doing that? And how fast does that happen? Because one question is not just whether we've peaked on inflation, but how far do we come down the other side? What's a very good question? And in fact, this is the question facing chair Powell and his colleagues destroying demand will really require the bed to continue to raise interest rates and to keep the level of interest rates higher than perhaps markets thought a year or so ago. But Milton Friedman's famous apparition that monetary policy works with long and variable lags is true and what's uncertain for chair Powell and his colleagues is how long it will take what they've already done to have an effect. I do expect we'll see recessionary pressures in 2023. I strongly suspect the fed feels that way too. It's possible to have a soft landing without a recession, but not really and get the 2%. Catch more of this