TSLA Underperforms as Election Results Come In, BMW Tweaks EV Strategy? (11.04.20)


Everybody rob our here and of course today. We're gonna talk a little bit about the. Us election primarily tussles reaction to it. I'm sure at this point. People are a little bit tired of hearing about everything going on. Of course the race is still ongoing. Votes are still being counted. The next twenty four hour should provide a lot of clarity but regardless it does look like we may be in for a weight of days or even weeks before. The election is finalized a quick example of that especially for our international listeners. For example my state of wisconsin. Joe biden is ahead by about twenty thousand votes. The associated press has declared biden the winner of the state but the margin of victory is less than one percent and that will allow president trump. to demand. recount and those recounts. Wisconsin can take up to thirteen days. We're gonna see probably similar actions taken in other states. Maybe north carolina michigan nevada. You still got arizona georgia north carolina pennsylvania all sort of unclear at this point in time and depending on how things go one of those states could make a difference and many of them. If not all of them could fall within the margin that would allow for a recount which just adds a lot of time for example in michigan. That can take up to thirty nine days for a little bit. More context on wisconsin as an example. We did have a recount for the two thousand sixteen general election and that changed the result by only one hundred thirty one votes. Of course this election has sort of a different beast with all absentee voting. So long way of saying it might be awhile before everything is fully done but as of market close today v election betting odds put in as an eighty two percent favourite to win the presidency. And that's probably our best clue for how the markets are reacting to what has unfolded over the last twenty four hours. Of course everyone's going to have their own numbers. Those odds are gonna vary by source that eighty two percent number is a conglomeration of a few sources but feel free to look up if you prefer to use a different source so that brings us into the market reaction. The market actually had a strong positive day today. The nasdaq was up three point. Nine percent on the day the s. and p. five hundred up two point two percent but on the day actually trail that down zero point seven percent. This is after tesla was strongly positive in the pre market. When the betting odds were a little bit more even between the two candidates with the democratic party being seemingly more open to adding incentives for solar electric vehicles and perhaps more interested in implementing stricter emissions requirements that the overall market's reaction was to be up that tesla would seemingly be right there with it or maybe even be outperforming clearly down zero point seven percent today that has not been the case a pretty significant underperformance with the nasdaq being up four percent. It wouldn't be too unusual to see tesla being up six or even eight percent on a day like that so let's look at a few other stocks that may fall into a similar bucket to tesla. Let's look at electric vehicles. Let's look at solar. Let's look at the infrastructure and ridesharing stocks and we can see some mixed results here across the board but a general underperformance in a lot of these electric and renewable type of categories. So let's run through these and then we can talk a little bit more about maybe the reason for that so tussle down zero point seven percent. Byod electric automaker out of china up two point seven percent but still trailing monastic. Nikola down to say whatever you want about that stock. But it still falls into this grouping workhorse down eight arkham odoyo down one fisker down six finally then outperformance here from lordstown motors obviously. Some of these are pretty small players. But then we get to neo ex paying. We auto all of these out of china with neo percent expand up twenty three percent. We auto up five percents. I put an asterisk on these in my chart here as they all seem to be pretty influenced by updates from city so city increased their price target on neo by about fifty percent today and they initiated coverage on x. pain and the auto so all three of those stocks had a pretty significant other influence today aside from just the election even including those three the average across the board here was two and a half percent. That's still trails. The nasdaq if we exclude those last three. The average was down. one point. Four percent for these av makers similar story if we look at solar so we've got first solar here down eight and a half percent sunpower down about three percent son. Run flat and phase up. Just one point. Four percent five. In solar down zero point three percent solar edge basically flat so the average across the board their down one point seven percent against significantly trailing the nasdaq and then if we look at infrastructure similar story here though. I'm sure i'm missing some companies in this list. I've got plug power down two percent and switchback which is acquiring chargepoint down four point seven percent finishing off with ride sharing and then we'll circle back uber and lift both up significantly today. Ten to

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