Jonathan Farrow, United States, General Motors Institute discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance


Noise is exceptionally high right now. And it's really disturbing for a lot of investors. This type of volatility is something that we think you'll see still for the next couple of quarters. I think there's more work to do here before the fed really believes that short rates are offering a positive real yield. I think the thing people really need to focus on the most is how long does the fed keep that funds rate really high. I think the time has come for them to take a slower pace of rate hikes and wait and see what kind of shape the economy is in. This is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keene, Jonathan farrow, and Lisa Abraham always. Good morning, everyone. This is Bloomberg surveillance. Jonathan farrow, Lisa oberon once and Tom Kean, we welcome all of you on Bloomberg radio and Bloomberg television, the common theme of the earnings season from industrial America this morning, John, right over to where we are with tech this afternoon is dollar ramifications. Alphabet and Microsoft coming up a little bit later in FX is the brand new excuse available to see. It is worldwide and 3M is taking that opportunity to blame FX Tom. It's a real deal. The dollar is a whole lot stronger. And if you're an international company this year, Tom, it makes a difference if you base here in the United States. It's Lizzie and Saunders with a great chart from Schwab's showing that domestic company outperformance versus multinational and international as well. The conversation Jordan Rochester and George cerebellum that we had earlier, it's just simply not about yen. It's about a holistic thing, the developing economies, the EM economies, and there's real dynamics out there. The rest of the world wants this fed to slow down. The step down. No question a step. The blink now. No more is not looking for that. They reckon 75 for the next meeting, and then another 75%. Do we all agree that you said that we all agree 75, I get it. ECB and that. To me, it's the then what? Well, and then at what point, if they do pause, right, let's say they do a step down, and they get to four and a half percent. Hold on a second. Then what happens then? I didn't say anything. But if they don't say anything, if they don't do anything further, is the further path going to be another rate hike as we heard from Robert tip because of the inflationary pressure. Any call on the fed is at the mercy of the CPI data and we get another CPI print, time and a couple of weeks time. In nature the nation is a huge variance as well and as jumbo vents at earlier and John to stagger to the data here with inflation tied to the yield right now ten year yield 4.16%, the real yield comes back from that one 82 down to one 58. Everything linked together off that key inflation report. And not just in Europe and the United States as well. Some of the time for this market worldwide this year and maybe beyond it to 2023. Let's whip through the price section for you just briefly on the S&P 500 slightly negative through much of this morning. No drama though. We've done about 13 on the S&P with softer by a third of 1%. Yields on a ten year lower negative down 8 basis points on a ten year to four 16 and in the FX market TK. Softer Euro here, just a little bit weaker, 98 63 on Euro dollar. If you were a student of the Midwest and you had parents that were industrial on your college list was the West Point of manufacturing and engineering. It was called General Motors institute now Kettering and never did they know that one of their students would come out to provide leadership for General Motors. She is Mary Barra and Matt Miller brings us to her today. The engineer from the General Motors institute. I'm looking forward to it. Mary, thanks so much for joining us really appreciate it on such a busy day for you. Let me pick up where these guys left off and ask you about the stronger dollar, obviously the lion share of your revenue comes here in the U.S., but you still buy purchase a lot of parts in your supply chain from outside of the country is the stronger dollar, a tailwind for you. Well, I think there's a lot of pressures right now when you look at commodity costs, transportation. It's just one of the elements in that we're facing is not a significant for as it is for other companies just based on our strong position in North America. But we continue to monitor and be impacted by each of these factors. Rates obviously a huge factor as well. We've seen it impacting other lenders. And I'm wondering how it's impacting GM financial. Well, we are seeing GM financial get back to, I would say, historically strong performance. I think we had especially strong performance last year in the year prior due to the strength of use cares pricing that's coming down with interest rates. We are seeing a little softening on leasing. But overall, GMF is performing very well. You know, the CEOs of JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs both this morning have said they see a recession as likely for the U.S.. I'm wondering your view you have a unique position, what's the economy look like to you? How is it unfolding and car sales specifically? Well, I'm going to let calling a recession to The Economist, not my expertise, but what I'll tell you what we are seeing. And we're seeing still very strong demand for our products. We're seeing strong average transaction pricing that we continue to be able to build on. And so we are starting to see inventory build just a little bit, but well below levels that were in the past. So overall, we're still seeing a very strong consumer for our products. And we're watching carefully all the different signs, but right now it's still very strong. But what about inflation and the pressure on margins? I mean, does the stronger dollar balance that out? Are you seeing a big inflation in rise in the costs that you need to pay out for parts and is that sort of squeezing your margins here? Well, we have, yes, we have seen commodities logistics, we work with our suppliers to make sure that we have a very healthy supplier base. So all of those factors, we tend to work to offset. And we predicted this year and be about a 5000 or excuse me, $5 billion impact. And we are seeing that, but we have worked effectively to find offsets and that's part of our overall equation for this year, which is allowing us to still maintain guidance. One big boost is going to be the inflation reduction act, at least UBS says they see the IRA as very generous. They say it has the potential to make the U.S. a global EV battery hub. How do you see the inflation reduction act for GM? Well, General Motors was already investing in North America or in the United States, for instance, we have a battery plant in Ohio that's ramping right now. We have two others, one in Michigan, one in Tennessee that are also ramping. So we were making the investments because we wanted to make sure we had a resilient supply chain after we've lived through so much disruption over the last few years. So as the IRA came into was passed and we're looking now for treasury to set the rules, we think we're very, very well positioned. And we do believe that the benefits of IRA will drive stronger EV adoption with the American consumer. So we think it's going to do exactly what was intended to do. And we're well positioned to benefit and work with our consumers to make sure they have an EV that's affordable, that they can really enjoy the benefits of an EV. Are you still on track to sell a million EVs in 2025 and beyond? We absolutely are, you know, when you look at the lineup that we have starting with the Hummer to the lyric to now the Chevy Silverado EV, we just last week launched the GMC Sierra EV along with the Chevrolet blazer EV and the equinox EV. I think we're going to be well positioned covering the important segments in the portfolio to reach that million unit level by 2025. You do get a huge boost also from big truck margins. And I imagine that helps you to fund the EV business and get towards that target. If we ever recession and you see sales of those big trucks, those big ICE trucks drop, can you continue to fund the EV boost? We very much believe we have a strong enough balance sheet and the strength of the business. When you look at the truck, we have truck leadership. We've had it since 2020 and we just did a major refresh to our light duty full size trucks. We have strong SUVs as well. And now the heavy duties, we just revealed there'll be next year. So we think our product portfolio is going to position us well in the truck market. I would also say midsize crossovers are very strong as well. And the truck consumer, especially the full size truck consumer. They generally are not, they don't shop as many segments as maybe other customers of other segments do. So we think we're well positioned. And obviously we'll moderate based on what happens from an economy in a consumer buying perspective. You know, earlier this

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